There are always players in baseball whose behavior on and off the field draw legions of fans and repel just as many. Think about Armando Benitez, Yoenis Cespedes and Bobby Bonilla to name a few. When they were good everyone was in their fan club. When they were bad, well, the media and fans' torches likely singed their uniforms.
The Mets today have another such player in mid-season acquisition Javy Baez from the Cubs. There is absolutely no debating the man's talent. During his pre-Mets career he has twice been an All Star, once finished 2nd in the National League MVP voting, has hit as many as 34 HRs in a season, driven in as many as 111, and stolen bases in double digits every full season that he's played. Throw in a Gold Glove at shortstop for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and you have an all-around player that most clubs would very much like to have in their lineup every day.
What was interesting upon his acquisition by the Mets is that except for the days his buddy Francisco Lindor was recuperating from injury, he was pushed to the other side of the diamond, playing second base. He certainly looked far better there than most second base options the Mets have tried lately.
For the Mets, however, it is not a question of his defense so much as it is his offensive production with his bat, his legs and his infectious intensity. Many detractors of his don't report that in his 47 games as a member of the Mets he hit .299. For comparison's sake, his career batting average is .264. During that time he also slugged 9 HRs and drove in 22 which would suggest he was on his way to an outstanding full season of production. He added 5 SBs for good measure in less than 1/3 of a season worth of playing, too.
The issues with Baez are two-fold. First, does he really want to be a second baseman after earning his stripes as a Gold Glove shortstop? The fact he would pair with his good friend Lindor might make this arrangement palatable, but there are other clubs looking for improvements at shortstop who could be competitors for his services. Look no further than across town where Gleyber Torres has moved to second and the Yankees are seeking a replacement at shortstop.
The other big issue to consider is his failure as a contact hitter. You don't hit .299 with mirrors, but at the same time his combined Chicago/New York strikeout total was 184 which led the league in this dubious category. He's always been something of an all-or-nothing type of swinger and you would have to bank on his good swings far outweighing the ones that miss the ball entirely. That's a hefty gamble.
Cost-wise, he's not going to come at a bargain price. Right now folks are talking about a $150 to $200 million contract. Now that's far below what Lindor received, it's more than even Jacob deGrom makes and he holds a pair of Cy Young Awards. No one is committing to a term for this type of contract, but assuming it is 5 years, those per-season prices are eye popping.
The other issue with retaining Baez is what you do with the surplus of other infielders on the roster or thought to be in the running to be brought back. You have Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, free agent Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme and others. In addition, don't forget that some of your shiniest prospects are currently infielders like Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio.
While I cannot dispute the positive side of a Baez signing, I do realize that even Mr. Cohen's pockets are not filled with a never ending supply of moolah. At some point you need to set a budget and address many needs on your team, not just take the most ostentatious ornament to decorate your company's Christmas tree.
Perhaps the good side of a Baez acquisition is that it opens up the prospect of trading pre-2021 hot hitter like Jeff McNeil to address some other needs. It also creates the opportunity to once again trade away the future by dealing prospects. Right now I'm undecided about decision to try to do an early deal to secure Baez be a part of the Mets for the foreseeable future.
13 comments:
I'd prefer to pay Baez $45 million a year for 2 years, or $40MM for 3 years, and keep the future open for the kids....and also avoid what could be a precipitous decline in contact under a long term contract as he ages, possibly similar to Chris Davis. Davis may be one of a kind, or not. They better be darned sure Baez isn't Davis.
If not, spend big on pitching and stay with your current infield, hope for a bounce back year, and get ready for the kids to mature. Baty's 0-5, 4 Ks last night like means he will need another year (or most of one) to refine his skills.
But they need room for kids like him, Vientos, and eventually Mauricio.
Oh, and "the others" you named excluded Cano, who Howie Rose would remind us is still in the books. He creates an even bigger crowd, unless they plan to play hardball with Robbie just after the World Series. I've heard nothing to that effect.
I would welcome a reasonable Baez deal early in the off season. A team could certainly do a lot worse than a Lindor/Baez keystone combo for a while, both defensively and offensively. I think about the stability that the Tigers had with Trammell and Whitaker for so many years.
One less thing to worry about and preferable to playing McNeil at second.
Without any backup, I am thinking that they will try to get Cano his reps at third. It will be interesting to see how that all plays out.
I want to lock him up for 5 years and be done with the middle infield
We need starting pitching, we need outfielders, so we will spend $ on a 2nd baseman who has more Ks than hits and had a .236 on base percentage in 2020. Makes pefect sense.
Why is it that we always seem to have a player (or players) with an awful contract we can't wait to dump. I'm on the fence about Baez and just hope when Stevie signed Lindor he had a long term plan in place but time will tell.
Lindor-Baez up the middle sound good to me! Get a defensive CF and move Nimmo to a corner! Defense up the middle used to be a recipe for success. Cano gets first crack at DH. Sign a hitter to help Alonso.
I am surprised that John is so down on someone like Baez.
John has always been a defense first guy.
A .230 OBP and more Ks than hits will do that to a person Mack.
The Mets need starters and OFs. They have infielders. It is just about allocating resources where we need help.
Excluding bizarre 2020, Baez has 17.6 WAR in 2018, 2019, and 2021.
Over the same 3 years, Conforto has 7.2 WAR. That is a big, big difference.
And I wonder if the WAR for Baez and Lindor is combined would be even greater than if they played on different teams.
I think Baez signs with the Mets. Mets will give him what he wants. Not the smartest move but they gave Lindor $341M and Lindor wants it to happen.
I believe there are more efficient use of our resources. Remember, I was the one who yelled loudest against trading for and signing Lindor.
The problem I see is that other than shortstops, this is a very weak (or old) free agent market. As I posted at one point, a strong argument could be made that the Mets currently hold the best outfielder (Conforto) and the best pitcher (Syndergaard) on the free agent list by value/future WAR. There just isn't that much available that won't cost them their 2nd (14th overall) draft pick (unless I am wrong about that 2nd pick - perhaps it is a second round pick?)
I am not sure who they could spend it on that is a better use of the resources than stabilizing second base with Baez. I get John's point about the K's and the OBP, but he showed much better plate discipline in the last month or so. . maybe he learned something.
And if John's comment on Macks's "Who do you get" post gains any traction, perhaps Fonzie can get Baez back to his near MVP form.
I don’t want to see Baez on this team. Wrong position, wrong player. This reminds me of having McNeil and trading for Cano. They have infielders, they need outfielders! Didn’t Baez sit the last two games of the year? Wasn’t Baez part of the thumbs down crap that he took responsibility for, but shows his immaturity? You don’t need Baez, you need either a contact first bat like Seagar or Correa that can play third base, or an outfielder. Stop with the Baez folly.
Good player? Yes! Wrong type and position? Yes!
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