JUST…TOO…DEEP
When bashing any Mets hitter, like Lindor or McNeil or Conforto, or pick someone else you tend to bash, I have been telling whoever will listen things like the following:
"Please kindly keep in mind that 22 fewer runs have been scored this year (through September 25) at Citifield - by Mets and opponents - than the second worst scoring MLB park."
Citifield "dead ball" arena is dead last in runs in 2021!
…AND THREE HUNDRED SIX (366) FEWER RUNS THAN AT FENWAY!
A veritable leap year’s worth of runs.
Admitting herewith that I reserve the slight chance to apologize if I might be wrong on this issue:
I have said it before, and I will say it until you guys catch on…
THE FENCES NEED TO COME IN!
Just a scoring drought at Citi this year? An aberration, perhaps?
No,
For instance, what about 2018?
In 2018, QUEENS FOUND ITSELF DEAD-BALL LAST IN MLB SCORING AT CITIFIELD, with just 584 runs.
(That is Mets AND opponents in total there, to be clear).
Meanwhile, in Texas Stadium? In 2018, in that park, 327 more runs, at 911 total runs. There were probably 584 total runs scored in Texas Stadium by late July that year! 56% more runs were scored in Texas Stadium than in Citifield!
How would this very same 2021 Mets team have been hitting, may I ask, if they played in Fenway or Texas?
Probably 100+ more runs, a lot less booing at Mets’ hitters, and a lot of Mets’ hitters smiling broadly for something besides cashing their pay checks.
Tougher on pitchers? Who cares.
All I hear from people as they just score with an eye dropper is, “They’re dreadful…they’re boring…they suck!”
Note to owners:
Those very same fans will tune out your product and stop attending your games.
The players do bear some responsibility, of course...maybe the Mets' hitters (who do half of Citifield's hitting) don't hit against the shift as well, or something else.
But here's my money-making recommendation:
Move the Citi Fences 5-7 feet further inward all around, except 8 feet to 400 in dead center. And bet rid of outwards angles, say by the bullpen and in dead center. Every outward angle reduces extra base hits over the course of a season.
Or, do you prefer to keep a dead-ball ballfield (based on obviously suppressed run output compared to other parks), and to simply have your fans screaming at all the so-called "failing" Mets’ hitters each year?
Which screaming and booing gets to them, because they are human.
Have you seen that Alonso had 10 Citi HRs through September 25, but 25 road HRs? Coincidence? Fluke?
Or is it THE PARK DIMENSIONS COUPLED WITH AN AREA WHERE THE BALL DOESN'T CARRY WELL ?
Citifield's suppressed offense reminds me of the year that the Pirates' Donn Clendenon hit 3 HRs at home in cavernous Forbes Field - while hitting 25 HRs on the road!
Roberto Clemente also played there, and he hit a whole lot more triples there and a whole lot fewer HRs there than on the road. PARK SIZE MATTERS!
So…fan can and do complain…feels good, right?
”ARRGGHH! @%#&!”
Instead, why don't we fans all call the front office and tell them we want the fences moved in.
Real help may just be a phone call away.
YOUR CHANCE TO DO SOMETHING, BESIDES KVETCHING.
Call your Congressman…nah, that’s a waste of time.
Instead, perhaps, politely call the Mets front office and tell them you want shorter fences for bigger offense. Ask them to pass the message on to Sandy and Steve.
I am going to. How about you?
Before I end, though, how about this stark comparison?
The Red Sox have the DH, while the Mets do not.
Nevertheless, the Red Sox had scored only 9 more runs than the Mets on the road (333 vs. 324 as of September 27).
At their respective home parks, though, a gargantuan disparity:
Red Sox 470 runs in Fenway, Mets 265 runs in Citi, a gaping:
TWO HUNDRED FIVE RUN DISADVANTAGE FOR THE METS!
C'mon, ponder that, and think if a change is needed.
Seems glaring obvious to me.
So, if (to consider another player) I am paying Francisco Lindor mega millions, fans notice his offense much more than his great defense when evaluating him vs. that huge, lengthy contract.
Make the park easier for him to hit in, and over the course of a season he picks up a few more HRs and doubles, and his numbers get increased and his average goes up, guess what? Fans look at him and think, "He's really good - we're getting our money's worth."
Instead of how they look at his 2021 now, much more negatively. It also makes it look to fans like the Mets cannot make wise decisions.
Make a wise decision - move the fences in.
At least, Mr. Cohen, have your analysts seriously review this topic.
And...make sure Sandy asks the players what they think about it. They may think I am nuts about the fences.
My guess? They will agree with me.
18 comments:
I sent this to Bobby Axelrod this morning.
Red Sox, the team I highlighted in the article, are in the playoffs. The Mets are not. The ultimate failure is missing the playoffs, especially when the division was there on a platter in mid-July. Dimensions sure didn't help the Mets' cause.
I agree because I've lost track of how many balls we hit that were caught at or right near the fence so I'll echo your sentiments BRING THE FENCES IN!
Gary, I asked you to sit with a chart and paper and log all that stuff LOL. But, if I am a free agent power hitter, why would I want to go to a new home park that snuffs out "will it carry enough to go out, or will it stay in the park" at bats?
2021 New York Mets:
47-34 at home
30-51 on the road
It’s not Citifield. Stop it already.
And far below .500. Put. Against teams in playoffs.
For me the problem for two years at least has been getting runners in from third base and less than two outs. The Mets are a horrible situational hitting team, and bad baserunning team, and aside from the first half of this year, a bad defensive team. Let’s start there. BVW sucked as a GM, but he tried to fix these areas in the minors as players were coming up. Alderson doesn’t care and so these are his players that are incomplete graduates of a careless minor league system.
Tom, some good arguments but I'm still not convinced. The comparisons to AL teams puts the data in two different environment regarding pitchers faced and team make-ups. Better to compare more normalized data, like NL East teams.
There's a great site at https://www.swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors/ that shows the dimensions of each ballpark and relative hitting stats for both righties and lefties compared to league averages. When you look at the NL East, all the parks have close to the same dimensions in right and left. CF is longer at Citi Field, but others (like Atlanta) have higher fences. The two best hitting parks in the NL East (WSH, PHL) don't have a distinct advantage in fence dimension, but have the worst home pitching staffs in the division.
There is no denying that the Mets hit better on the road than at home - but is it the park or the pressure?
They are Mack because those teams don’t beat themselves. Why didn’t the Yankees ever fall below .500 even when they were rebuilding? They didn’t beat themselves. Look at the Braves this year. They weren’t a juggernaut and even lost their best player. But the pitching was good enough and they were able to take advantage of the misfits of the NL East.
Nothing against Tom and his fine work everyday, but I think we are missing the big picture that will not change no matter where you put the fences.
Gus, over a much longer stretch, very little home field advantage relative to say the Yankees. It's a problem. You may not see it - others do.
I agree with Gus when it comes to "winning" baseball.
What does that include, you ask?
1. Catching the baseball (good defense, positioning, throwing to the proper base, etc). Playing good to great defense
and winning typically go hand in hand (take a look at the Rays, for example).
2. Situational hitting (getting on base, moving runners over, using the bunt, getting runners in from 3rd with less then two outs and generally hitting well with RISP). The Mets are the WORST in this category and consistently leave runners on base.
3. Effective pitching (limiting walks, controlling pitch counts and not killing your bullpen). I will admit that I watch more of the Mets then anyone else, but nothing takes the wind out of my sails faster then watching a starter go 4 1/3 innings, while needing 100 pitches to do so. UGH.....throw some damn strikes!
I am sure that I am oversimplifying things a bit, but these areas usually determine who wins or loses over the long haul. Plus, they also play off each other (bad defense stresses pitchers and bullpens, or crappy hitting with RISP leads to a lack of runs and more pressure on your pitching staff).
I am not sure if this is an organizational failing, or just a lack of focus on fundamentals by today's flashier ESPN driven players. IN any event, there are still teams doing these things well, so it can be done and I hope the next group to take over the organization sees this and addresses the issue.
That and a better sports medicine department.......I know, I know.......I am rambling on, but things won't change until that does.
Paul, all I can tell you is that the Mets AND opponents play at Citifield and it was the lowest scoring park in baseball in 2018 and 2021. I did not take the analysis further, but that should be a red alert to the Mets analytics people, who are in fact paid to do exhaustive analyses. I'm not paid. I've got a job and prefer to get ideas out in the public forum that are worth exploring, even when some tell me to stop it already. Dead last is dead last. My question is simply: WHY?
Gus, I agree 100% with you...that the fences issue (which you and I disagree on) is not a fix-all, and that other problems are glaring and need fixing to turn the Mets from a trip-over-themselves franchise to a winning one. A consistently winning one.
The Yanks have not racked up World Series crowns in quite some time - but they are relevant to the end every single year. That is all I want. Anything more is a bonus.
Mike, you are absolutely right - each point you raise is important - but I would not dismiss the fences from the list.
In accounting parlance, there is a term called "cumulative effect". The cumulative effect of all your points - and the fences - could be what - 15 games?
You don't just fix the problems by throwing billions at different players. You figure out the barriers to success and make sure there is real progress on every one. Or play golf in October every year.
Is there a spray chart available anywhere which shows the 2021 Mets outs on the warning track vs the Opponents outs on the warning track?
I am firmly parked in Gus's camp here. Until July, they led the lead in home winning percentage. Then they were poor wherever they happened to play, while still finishing 13 over at home.
Please don't destroy the pitching-first angle of the Mets. Just teach the hitters how to make better use of the field they have. It seems like every time they had anybody on base, it was another 4-6-3 double play, strikeout, or just plain ground ball out.
The pitchers appreciate the bigger park, let's build a team to take advantage of it.
Bobby hasn't got back to me.
Must be resting in Switzerland.
Remember 1969, there is no doubt such a spray chart.
Funny, but I do remember the early 1980s Mets teams that hit 60 HRs a year over a 2 season stretch. Those teams needed the fences moved in too - to the edge of the infield.
Mack, I think he is hanging out with his relative David Axelrod
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