THE ROCK MAY BE INDESTRUCTIBLE, BUT METS' PLAYERS? NOT SO MUCH
When building a team, leave rose-colored glasses at the door.
The days of Iron Men like Lou Gehrig and Cal Ripken are over.
Guys today get hurt.
Lots of guys get hurt.
Lots of guys get hurt a lot.
Quite a few get hurt for a long time.
Lots of guys getting hurt lots of times for lots of days.
Well, that sure is A LOT.
Consider the following info (from a tweet, not verified by me):
Regular season MLB top 5, impact on teams from injured players and IL (Lost-WAR metric)
1 CHW 18.80 WAR lost
2 NYM 16.24
3 SFG 12.86
4 MIA 11.02
5 HOU 11.01
I also saw this tidbit of info when I googled "games lost due to injury":
MLB 2021 Regular Season Injury Data Summary:
The Padres (2317 games missed by players due to injury) and
New York Mets (2264)
led the league in total games missed by players to injuries and the injured list.
At 162 games for a total season, that 2,264 Mets' players games missed equals almost 14 "man-seasons" of Mets' injuries - simply insane. Hurts to think about it.
The 2,264 games, absurdly high, was the reality of Mets 2021.
Amazing, isn't it, that they got so close to .500 when that infirmary-frenzied scenario is considered?
So...keeping in mind the facility of Mets' players...
When building a rotation, over-build it or find yourself using AAAA guys to start, as starters nurse boo-boos.
When building a bullpen, over-build it or find yourself using AAAA guys to relieve,as relievers nurse boo-boos.
Etc.
I think one of the stories of 2021 is that the Mets, to a greater extent pre-2021 than prior to earlier Mets' seasons, tried to do a lot more of that, building in more depth as an injury cushion, with the 2021 examples of Villar and Pillar, just to name two.
Turned out it was not enough. They prepared for a force 1 hurricane, but got a level 4 instead.
Hard to plan to be second-worst in games lost due to injury, for a simple reason: no team expects to be 2nd worst in injuries.
Certainly, the Mets must have been well above 10% higher than league average in games lost in 2021, although the numbers were not at the tips of my fingers as I write this. I think therefore that Billy Eppler needs to assume the Mets will be at least 10% above league average in games lost due to injury in 2022. And build in ample redundancy accordingly. Or perhaps...heaven forbid...you'll need to use (dare I say it) Cameron Maybin again.
Add ample redundancy, so we don't end up at 77 wins again.
Or lower.
Do not skimp on redundancy.
Would the Mets have won 90 games with just an average number of team-games lost to injury in 2021? Perhaps.
But "aggregate games lost by a team to injury" is undoubtedly a huge factor in things like...playoffs or no playoffs.
It is an unpleasant (but real) issue that needs to be faced head on, and all wishful thinking must be left in fantasy land.
Fantasy doesn't win baseball games.
Healthy, high quality players in sufficient numbers do.
P.S. - But Who's Counting, Anyway...
The Mets since inception are nearly 400 games below .500. The Yankees since their inception are nearly 2,600 games above .500.
How do the Mets make up that 3,000 game disparity? Simple.
Win every single game for the next 19 years, while hoping the Yankees play .500 ball over those 19 years.
I know, I know, I am comparing apples and oranges. The Yankees have been around longer and those first several Mets' teams were brutal.
With that said, the real comparison period is probably from 1968, when the Mets shook off their early year growing pains, to present.
Over that 1968-to-present period, the Yankees are 1,039 games above .500, while the Mets are 49 games below .500. To make that gap up, the Mets just have to win every game over the next 7 years while the Yanks play .500 ball.
See? Only 7 years without a loss, not 19. Don't you feel so much better now?
Nothing you can do about the past - and you're not winning 162 in a single season, much less 7 seasons.
Me? I'd settle for 100 Mets wins a season over the next 10 seasons. And no, I am not including spring training wins in that calculus.
One other calculation, where the Mets come out ahead...
If you add total Mets losses to total Mets loser fans, and compare it to total Yankee losses plus Yankees loser fans, the Mets definitely have much fewer, as they have far fewer loser fans. Mets fans are the best fans in NY. Maybe it comes from years of eating humble pie.
Anyway, to all you winners out there - have a great day.
12 comments:
I got hurt reading your article but I'm old but really even I didn't realize we were that bad vs the Yanks but probably I didn't want to know. I wonder what the numbers would be before and after free agency because guaranteed contracts change a mindset as in how much different it would be if every player was playing for one year contracts. Also the scourge of the the 21st century is the oblique injury and the fact that they haven't figured it out yet. Tom do I get extra points for using scourge?
Gary definitely leads the team in points now . .scourge and mindset in the same comment is going to be hard to beat!
No more humble pie. Too many carbs. Now it's time to feast and make the rest of the division experience famine.
This article addresses a concept that I struggle with and cannot find an answer that I can settle on.
The 2021 Mets going into the year had (1) deGrom (2) Stroman (3) Carrasco (4) Walker (5) Peterson (6) Lucchesi (7) Yamamoto and Syndergaard returning in June for the last 2/3 of the season. To me that is a very good staff with reasonable depth.
Peterson had a good 2020 and he was a former #20 overall draft pick says that he has to have a longer rope.
The simple fact is that you cannot stuff 7 or 8 bonafide major league starters on the same staff and expect all to be productive, or to just wait their turn until somebody above them gets hurt. Would I like to go out and get a Luis Castillo or Sean Manaea? Sure, but now Megill and Peterson are spare parts. Pitchers and people are not like refrigerator fan motors that you can just put on a shelf until you need them.
I don't know what the right balance is, but it also brings up the concept of consistent development through the minors. The Mets had Megill to bring up, and he did well, but short of that, there was nobody at the top of the system that could provide much help. In another year they may be able to pull a McGinn or Allan a bit early to test them in a time of need, but that type of pitcher does not yet exist in the organization.
The same thing is true with positional players. While there was really only one player truly playing out of position at the start of the year (Dom in LF), the depth they built with Villar, Pillar, Almora, etc. got way too much starting time. On the other hand, if they had brought in Bryant, then Davis would have been sitting - is that the right approach?
It is this reason that I don't want to trade Dom Smith. Suppose Alonso gets hit by pitch in the first game of the season and is out for 8 weeks or more with a broken hand? Then what?
The balance of true starters and good depth is very difficult to attain and I don't think there is anything that can be done to protect against 14 man years of IL time in a seaaon.
Gary is a wordsmith. I’m not sure if that makes him Irish.
Reese, 162-0 or bust. If it takes $1 billion, so be it
R1969, it is why baseball is always ripe for second guessing. Going into 2021, I thought they were as deep as they’d ever been. Quickly, they weren’t deep enough. Sometimes, all the king’s horses and men can’t put Humpty together again. As much as possible, stock heavy, and trade away pieces mid season if health is great.
Older players require depth - the older the more depth needed. When Jake got hurt, they tried to hang in there for a while but were not able to. Instead of getting pitching help and outfield help - we got a SS/2B when other options existed. For that they gave up maybe their best OF prospect. Not smart.
Now we just signed a bunch of 30 somethings. More expensive and more prone to injury.
Work smarter not harder - spend smarter not just more.
Hopefully thes 30 something’s can be relatively durable for the next two years.
I want Crow back. Cubs’ #5 prospect. Baez was a dumb trade.
I have always liked Baez, but I didn't like the trade at the time because I don't like trading recent #1 draft picks, especially when the system is as thin as it is. I like it even less now that they didn't re-sign Baez. Maybe Trevor Williams will turn into a perennial all-star pitcher.
They need to have a good draft this coming year and replenish their top prospects with at least one, and two would be better, top outfielders. I really like the Pete Crow-Armstrong type of player.
R 1969, Alex Ramirez may be better than Crow. Only time will tell.
Alex Ramirez and Pete Crow-Armstrong together may be better than Trevor Williams.
But point taken. I do like Alex Ramirez and am looking for good things from him as he rises through the system. Binghamton in 2023? Or late season 2022 promotion. I suspect he'll start 2022 in St. Lucie and hopefully hit Brooklyn at some point.
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