Paul Articulates – A systematic problem

There is something fundamentally wrong in the New York Mets organization.  This isn’t just about a sub-par 2023 or a prolonged losing streak in June.  This isn’t just whining because the highest paid team in MLB can’t play better than .500 ball this year.  This is an observation that even in an entirely unpredictable game like baseball, when things can go worse than expected; that things are going much worse than they should much more often than they should.  Let me explain.

The 2021 season was somewhat disappointing as the team faded in the last three months after a promising start.  They went 21-37 in the months of August, September, and October.  The team finished in the bottom third of MLB in batting and had several players perform well below their career norms.  Francisco Lindor batted .230; Michael Conforto batted .232; James McCann batted .232.

The 2022 season went so well that we forgot about early 2021.  The team played with confidence, finding ways to win series after series by getting clutch hits and timely pitching performances.  Enthusiasm amongst the fan base reached a crescendo in August as they held the division lead and were hurtling towards a showdown with the hot Braves.  Unfortunately they stumbled into that series as their bats cooled off and Marte got hurt in the preceding weeks.  We all know how it worked out, and the wildcard series against the Giants just brought more of the same disappointment.

But do you remember that during that 2022 season Eduardo Escobar, JD Davis, Darrin Ruf, James McCann and others all had enormous performance drops for sustained months?  Escobar did not look like himself at the plate until August rolled around.  

The 2023 season as you know has been an extreme disappointment.  Forget about wins and losses for a moment – the number of prolonged slumps and pitching collapses on this team is unprecedented.  These are not (for the most part) injury induced – they are failures of big league hitters with demonstrated past success to perform for months; failures of pitchers to execute pitches they have excelled at for years; failures of a really good defensive team to keep their wits about them and make plays.  

There is a much deeper root cause in play that is making several talented players look much worse than they are.   How else would you explain:

• Pete Alonso in such a prolonged slump that his batting average drops to .205 – this has never happened in his career even though he has seen brief slumps.

• Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer who own six Cy Young awards between them (3 each) have both been through odd stretches of poor starts followed by a good one or two and then immediate regression.  In their post-game interviews they don’t make excuses, just say they have to be better.  They ARE better – how can they lose their control so often?

• Jeff McNeil, noted as an outstanding bat-to-ball hitter suffers through six weeks of poor contact.

• Starling Marte looking very confused in many at-bats since the beginning of this year.

I suspect that there is something going on in the approach to coaching these players – the mix of information and guidance that is continuously provided before and after games.  To me this is the only plausible explanation for the plethora of issues plaguing a roster full of very good baseball players.  To succeed in MLB, you need a combination of talent, training, confidence, and experience.  

These players we are talking about have demonstrated their talent and experience.  Six Cy Youngs, a batting championship, a HR crown, and multiple all-star selections are exhibit A in the evidence pool.  So it comes down to training and confidence.

There was an acknowledgement in the off-season after the 2021 failure that the analytics team was dumping too much information on the hitters too close to game time.  Eric Chavez was brought in as hitting coach for the 2022 season and righted the ship by providing an intermediary between the two.  So is this another run-away analytics train?  

Can it be that this year’s coaches can’t deal with the information and translate it to the players effectively as Chavez did?  I believe that is the case.  I think the players are confused but won’t admit it during the season.  The installment of a powerful analytics capability and state-of-the-art training equipment was a great long-term investment but the learning curve has been too steep for both the players and the coaches.  How else do you explain the widespread mental collapse that has defined this season?

This team needs the powerful analytics capability and state-of-the-art training equipment so it should remain.  But this team also needs people that understand how to utilize it, teach the players to utilize it, and simplify the game for those using it.  There is no other way to compete with teams like the Astros and the Braves who have learned how to use it.  

I would expect a pretty significant change in the coaching ranks at the end of this season.  Mid-season is too soon because it would just magnify the confusion and it will be tough to pry loose the experts that we really need before the season is over.