Tom Brennan - Top Mets Prospect Progress (Or Lack Thereof)

Wow! 

All star catcher Francisco hits a HUGE 2 out 2 strike HR to tie up the game. Then a Baty hit and Canha triple, and Senga was absolutely brilliant, too. Mets’ 4th straight…and rolling.

THIS is why I clamored for Nido to go. 

Alvarez is brilliant…15 HRs…and will only get better.

OK, he is not an All Star catcher. 

Because they made a mistake.

Are Your Prospects Getting Better…or Not?

Sometimes, season-to-date stats really and truly just don't tell the tale. 

With young minors players, what I hope and watch for for is month to month progress.

So how did the Mets' top 10 prospects (as ranked by the Mets) fare?

   

1. C Kevin Parada - Brooklyn Cyclones

May: .269/.352/.452

June: .303/.354/.539, 5 HRs.

Big improvement from weak April (stats not shown here) to May, then an equally large jump from May to June. That tells me AA should soon be forthcoming for our # 1 guy, in his first full pro season after just 55 PAs in debut 2022. Started July just as Hot.

Many Facebook fellas think the Mets will trade him.  My mother would have suggested that their mouths be washed out with soap.  

There will be room for 2 slugging catchers on the Mets when Parada arrives in 2024 (not 2025) at some point to join Alvarez. I as GM could make Johnny Bench and Gary Carter peacefully co-exist if those two young catchers were in my system, couldn’t you?

2. IF/OF Ronny Mauricio - Syracuse Mets

May: .367/.407/.541, after a strong April.

June: .202/.260/.360.

A little banged up in June, they say, and playing two new positions, and was likely due for a cool off after a torrid May.  He also lost the line up protection of Mark Vientos for most of June.   

Still, that is an ugly June slash.

But, a nice multi-hit game with a HR on July 4…perhaps a promotion in July to the mother ship still occurs if trades open up space in Queens.

3. IF Jett Williams - St Lucie Mets

May: .175/.351/.228 

June:.274/.432/.466

A rough May, no doubt - the numbers don't lie, but St Lucie is a challenging assignment for a speedy teenager. 

Way better in June, though. Drastically better, in fact. The lad continues to walk like mad. 

At age 19, I’d leave him in St Lucie, unless he further improves upon his substantial June offense.  Averaging an error every 3 games at SS, too, but errorless in several games in CF.

4. CF Alex Ramirez - Brooklyn Cyclones

May: .222/.340/.348

June: .195/.340/.293

I could look for the positives in his play, but I am quite disappointed in his output so far in 2023.  He does seem to be trying to "work the pitcher", as his walks suggest, but I want to see him hitting more at this level, 3 rungs below the majors by now.

He went .278/.329/.427 in his 54 games in Brooklyn at age 19 in 2022, and I thought, based on that, he would start 2023 in AA, but he stayed in High A Brooklyn and has regressed in 2023 at age 20 (still 7 months short of his 21st birthday).  But his year-over-year Brooklyn OBP in 2023 is 14 points higher, so that is a plus.

Hopefully, he turns it around at the plate soon in batting average and extra base hits.  And he has just 2 OF errors this season, so he is a plus OF defensively.

5.  RHSP Blade Tidwell - Brooklyn Cyclones

May: 20.2 IP, 5,23 ERA, 12 H, 18 BB, 30 K, 3HR

June: 26.2 IP, 1.37 ERA, 14 H, 12 BB, 40 K, 0 HR

The righty just turned 22 in June, and his trajectory markedly, no, drastically, improved from May to June.  But most of that in May was one disastrous start in early May (1.2 IP, 7 runs), or otherwise his May was very solid, too.  In fact, after that rough outing, 40 IP, 6 earned runs, tons of Ks.  He certainly bounced back.

Just 68 pro innings so far, 86 Ks in 59 IP this season, and Blade's future looks mighty bright, and seemingly very deserving of a # 5 prospect ranking.  Seems his ETA is 2025, but if he stays this sharp as he climbs, is late 2024 out of the question?

Possible SP 1?

6. RHSP Dominic Hamel - Binghamton Tumble Ponies

May: 6.17 ERA, 23 IP, 4 HR, 29 H, 2 BB, 29 Ks

June: 6.35 ERA, 23 IP, 4 HR, 23 H, 9 BB, 32 Ks

Pretty flat from May to June, and ineffective in both. Let's hope July is better for the 24 year old righty, who does, to his credit, have 80 Ks in 61 IP this season.  His start Wednesday night was sensational, I am happy to note. His ETA in Queens, based on the last 2 months, is unclear.

7. RHSP Calvin Ziegler - TBD

May: None

June: None

None for the entire 2023 season, yet, either, since his surgery for elbow bone chips in March.  One would suppose he will return this season, perhaps soon. 

He did have 70 Ks for St Lucie in his debut season in just 47 innings, so we hope for a 100% recovery. That is some K rate.

8.  RHSP  Mike Vasil - Syracuse Mets

May: 25 IP, 2.52, 14 H, 4 BB, 21 K, 3 HR

June:  (AA and AAA) 19.2 IP, 7.78 ERA, 24 H, 10 BB, 6 HR

His first June start was 5 innings of 1 run, 1 hit ball in AA, but overall, his last several outings since May 24, he has allowed 8 HRs in 24 innings and 23 runs, so he has surely hit a wall.  Pitching like Dylan Bundy of late, which is not a flattering thing to say.

9. RHSP Joel Diaz - MIA (not Miami, the other MIA)

May: None    

June: None

Yep, another injured pitcher, out for the year.

10.  IF Jesus Baez - Florida Complex League

"First half of June": .129/.256.161 in the first 9 games

"Second half of June": 7 for 21, 3 walks (including July 1).

The 5'9", 180 lad, who turns 19 at the start of next spring training, is in the FCL, and they did not start until June 5, so I split the stats for June.

Jesus got off to a miserable offensive start, but sometimes a step up can pose temporary challenges, which are then surmounted.

His big-bonus "brother", teenager Simon Juan, who is for now below the top 10, had a similarly poor start this year in the FCL, then ignited over his last few games, so let's be patient with these two.

Overall, for the top 10, not dazzling, and Ziggy and Diaz have not thrown an inning this year.  Meanwhile, # 28 ranked Christian Scott (4-1, 2.18 in 45 IP in A and AA), and unranked Tyler Stuart (3-0, 1.42 in 13 starts in Brooklyn), have both pitched sensationally so far this year.  Me?  I'd drop the injured Ziggy and Diaz down a bunch of slots, and add Scott and Stuart to the top 10.  

However, on May 24, Fangraphs did list the Scott (age 24)/Stuart (age 23) duo at #34 and #35, so perhaps i need to temper my enthusiasm there, but hopefully, Fangraphs is whiffing here, and these two surge up.

BUT - the W-L records overall of the Mets seven minors teams are collectively well below .500, so the health of the farm system is highly suspect.  Steve Cohen is focused on fixing that.

One hot prospect of note outside the top 10 is # 15 Jacob Reimer, who had gone 25 for 66 (.380) with 10 walks after May, with nearly a .500 OBP over that stretch.  The former 4th round 3B is 3 months younger than the Golden Jett. He probably, like Jett, belongs in the Mets' Top 10.

HOT LATELY

Travis Fryman to me seemed on his way to nowhere…but he has sharply pivoted to go 17 for his last 39 in AA. New life for a suddenly torrid Fryman.  Drake Osborn, a catcher with Brooklyn, was in a deep coma, but has had three 3 hit games in the past few weeks and is climbing. Junior Tilien? He went 2 for 17 upon his promotion to Brooklyn, but has followed that with 7 hits in his past 5 games. And Wyatt Young was great last year, struggling this year, hitting .194 on June 2, but up 32 points since then to .226.

CIVIL WAR OF SORTS

As the schedule would have it, the Mets' 2 DSL squads squared off against one another on Wednesday in a day game.  Not an exhibition, the game counted in the standings.  The two teams are 16-25 when not facing each other.

It was a low scoring affair.  Surprised?  4-1, the 5 runs coming on 7 total hits in the 7 inning game.

The two teams have OPS of .735 and .685, while the two top teams in the 50 team league have OPS in the high .880s.

Yeudi Francisco Lora, a 19 year old righty, went 3 innings, allowing a single hit and fanning 6.  For the season, 5 innings, 0.00, 9Ks.

There is magic in that name: FRAN...CIS...CO!!