Tom Brennan: Met Hitter In-House Development So-So; Other Ramblings

I handed this report to my 6th grade Nun. She gave me an A+, the Mets a C+.

The Mets have a multi decade, history of developing a paucity of hitters; however, since 2012 things have improved markedly in that regard. Brandon Nimmo was drafted in 2012, and has outperformed the expectations of many.  

Dominic Smith (first round, 2014) has had some success as a first round pick, but really with more failure than success, perhaps due to the huge shadow at his first base position of a polar bear named Pete Alonso, who has been a wildly successful (although recently scuffling) 2nd round pick from 2016. 

Of course, the Smith pick could have been a Judge pick, a huge faux pas.

Michael Conforto, a first rounder from 2013, turned out to be a solid power pick for the outfield. 

Jeff McNeil was a surprise 12th rounder who had them hitting the jackpot and who has given them very solid play at 2nd base and the outfield since 2018. A too-rare low round find.

At shortstop, they drafted no one who’s made it, but they did sign Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, both solid, major leaguers at shortstop/2B/OF, which ultimately got them Francisco Lindor. 

Wilmer Flores, slightly further back in time, was another big bucks international signing of modest to decent big league success. No Manny Machado there, though, just to make one thing perfectly clear.

At catcher, they signed a prodigious power hitter named (“Future Hall of Famer”) Francisco Alvarez, and of course they foolishly traded away Pete Crow Armstrong, the sixth overall pick in 2019. 

And they also dealt away Jared Kelenic, the first rounder from 2018, which netted them Edwin Diaz, and also dispatched a likely budding MLB catcher of quality in Endy Rodriguez, now high up in the Pirates system.

Had they retained all of these individuals, it would form a nucleus of a strong team offensively.

What is lacking over those roughly 11 years is hitter selection success beyond the first round or beyond the really top $ international signings. They’ve drafted (and signed) mostly with poor results for offensive players after round # 1, aside from Jeff and Pete. Most of the drafted guys below round 1 have not even been good hitting minor leaguers. Ditto on international signings.  

Occasionally, a flawed hitter like 8th round Tomas Nido or 8th round Patrick Mazeika has made the majors in a non-impactful and even negative WAR way. 

Too many Jake Mangum’s, Lee Mazzilli’s, Danny Muno’s, Branden Kaupe’s (4th round, 4 doubles in 600 minors PAs) over the years, too many Greg Guerrero’s, and a slew of guys who fan way too much and/or have too little speed and power. Very weak secondary signings.  

There is a reason the Mets minors are sub-par in offensive output year after year, and it’s the veritable cascade of poor non-top offensive selections and signings.

So, when it comes to drafting and signing high level offensive players over the last ten or so years, I’d give them a B+ for quality and a B- for quantity. 

Below the offensive player high picks and high signings over the same period, though, a D-, and only that high because of 12th rounder Jeff McNeil.

In terms of major league total impact, I’d give position player drafts and signings a C to a C+. Decent, but to WIN, gotta do better. 

But that C to C+ is far better than the pitcher drafting and international signings over the same period, which have worked out quite poorly, causing Steve Cohen to break the piggy bank in search of costly fixes.

Please keep in mind that I am not focusing on quality hitters now in the Mets minors. There are a handful of very good ones, perhaps far too many weak ones. 

Why do I say that? 

Simple.

Minor league Mets’ offensive production in 2023 remains sub-par.

Where is our first offensive MVP, first home-grown offensive Hall of Famer? 

A Zero Sum Game.

STORMING IN

Atlanta has lost 3 straight. The Mets have won 3 straight. The Mets only trail by 17 games and have begun an unparalleled surge.

By mid-August, the Mets will overtake them and be atop the division. 

YA GOTTA BELIEVE (that I’m nuts).

Moving on…

Verlander was Vintage Verlander, nabbing his 4th win, 60% of the way through the 2023 season. Now 4-5. 

I am reminded of 1984 Rick Sutcliffe, who was 4-5 with Cleveland before being traded to the Cubs mid-season, and then went 16-1 for the Cubbies. I’ll take that from JV. If not for that trade, maybe the Mets finish ahead of the Cubs in 1984 in Dwight Gooden’s dazzling debut season, when they finished 6.5 games behind the Cubbies.

Today, 60% of the way through the 2023 season, Jose Quintana will make his season debut. Maybe you’ve heard of him. A lefty, I think.

Last 15 games, spanning 50 at bats, Francisco of the Alvarez Kind is hitting .340 with 7 HRs and 15 RBIs. Did I mention he is 21? What will he do over the final 4 fifteen game segments of this marvelous rookie season? 

My call, in an article in October 2022, for the 2023 season?  “Francisco Alvarez will be ready to take over the lead Mets catching role. I believe he’ll hit .230 next year. I believe he’ll  hit 25 home runs next year.  I believe that will be fine.” 

Boy, was I conservative.

Some fans have been throwing up over Starling Marte’s play. But he has literally been throwing up due to recent migraine issues. Feel better. 

Apparently, his hernia surgery has also given him challenges. Let’s hope he returns as the real Starling Marte over the next 40% of the season.

Mets are 9-4 over their last 13 games, all the while Pete, Jeff, Lindor and Marte have been putrid. Nimmo not so good either. (Lindor did have that 5 for 5 game, but otherwise, not good). Imagine if all of them suddenly get hot?