Reese Kaplan -- Many Free Agent Pitchers Available (Part 2)

The 2023/2024 free agent pool is shallow at best.  Once you get past Shohei Ohtani who is in a total league of his own in terms of courtship, suitors and beaucoup bucks, the drop off from that plateau is pretty steep.  Now that's not to demean some of the good but not great position players on the auction block, but it's not as if there are a dozen different starting outfielders, infielders, catchers and designated hitters making both fans and GMs say, "You bet, that's our man!"

On the pitching front things are a bit rosier and it appears that there are a number of decent arms worth exploring that do not have previous ties to the Mets organization.  Like position players, there's no guarantee that an incoming newbie is going to be a difference maker but sometimes your own in-house options are not strong enough to avoid taking a long look at who's available for money alone without sacrificing baseball talent.  Let's take a look at some of the more appealing options:

Mets fans are quite familiar with one of the Philadelphia Phillies aces who may be available to the highest bidder.  For his career Nola has had way more ups than downs, but chose the wrong time to have an off year.  He's a winning pitcher over 9 seasons with an 85-67 record and a 3.68 ERA.  He's been in the top ten for Cy Young Award recognition three times and made the All Star game in 2018 during his best ever year when he won 17 games and finished with a miniscule 2.56 ERA.  Turning 31 next season, he's coming off a contract paying him $16 million.  He'll likely look to net $20 million or thereabouts despite his ERA closer to 5.00 than it is to 4.00 during 2023.   A $100 million deal for 5 years is not unreasonable for what he can deliver.  Maybe he simply needs a change of scenery.  

This pitcher with the offbeat white framed eyeglasses may be having some injury time in 2023, but there's no questioning what he has done since arriving to the major leagues after growing up as a child in Culiacan, Mexico.  Just 26 years old Julio Urias is already reaching free agency built on a career with a 54-22 with a career ERA of just 3.01.  His metrics most definitely scream major payday, but he earned a modest $14.25 million in what may be his final season playing in Chavez Ravine.  How high the salary can go and for how many years is merely a guessing game, but someone offering up a $200 million contract for 7 years might even be considered a bargain for a pitcher of this caliber.  

Former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell is 61-53 with a 3.39 ERA.  What's not to love?  Well, in 2023 his ERA is down to just 3.21 but the won/loss record is in the negative which never helps during the negotiation for a fat new contract.  Right now finishing up with the Padres, the big southpaw is earning $16.6 million and will be looking for a big bump in annual rate as well as longevity.  $25 million per season for 6 or 7 years would be a bargain and he should have a place on every single GM's budget for a prospective offer.  

If a pitcher had a 51-32 career record with an ERA of just 3.56 as a starting pitcher, you'd think becoming a free agent would lead to a huge payday, right?  Well, in the case of Luis Severino his health has not been stellar and will likely depress the longevity and annual rate of his first free agent contract upon leaving the Yankees.  At $15 million he's paid reasonably well for his talent but missing as much time as you have during 5 of his 8 seasons does not bode well for getting a contract to take him straight through to retirement.  Still, as a shorter term gamble, he might be worth consideration.

One of Mack's longtime favorites that the Mets did not draft, Giolito has taken awhile to reach this free agent stage until his good games outnumbered his bad ones.  For his career he is 59-52 with a 4.24 ERA.  That level of production would certainly keep him in the majors for sure but not at the upper echelon of the talent pool.  Unlike others who falter in their season immediately prior to free agency, Giolito has taken this year to show what he's like at his best.  His control has been stellar, he's striking out nearly 10 per 9 IP and his ERA is definitely where you'd like to see it.  The on-again/off-again performance he's delivered might temper the enthusiasm for him as a starting pitcher, but many clubs are in the "What have you done for me lately?" mindset and if he's coming off success then that's what they expect from Giolioto as a new pitcher on their team.

Just recently the Mets saw Alex Wood not as the long time starting pitcher he has been but as a reliever in Sunday night's game.  For his career Wood was a starter far more often than a reliever and back in 2017 he finished the season 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA for the year which landed him in his sole All Star appearance.  Lately, however, his metrics have been down with now two straight years of an ERA over 5.00 and it may be that he at an early end of the rope pitching in the majors.  Still, being left handed and having delivered some good pitching in the past he might get a short term lower end deal to see if he can approximate the mid 3.00 ERA type of performance he's done in the past.  Maybe changing to the pen could make sense for him.

Speaking of relief pitchers, southpaw Will Smith has been a solid middle reliever entering the latter stage of his career.  He has a below .500 record but it's the 3.55 ERA that catches your eye.  He has often struggled with his control but he's having an awesome 2023 for the Texas Rangers and entering his age 34 season he's going to be paid well.  This year the Rangers are paying him just $1 million and although he will see a bump probably into the $6 million range next season, he's certainly affordable for a team in quest of help from the left side.

As bad as things have been for the Mets, it's been a mirror image for the normally contending St. Lous Cardinals.  Starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has been a quality pitcher throughout his career and if he walks away from the Arch in St. Louis he will have no shortage of baseball suitors.  The big right hander is 39-30 with a mid 3's ERA.  Turning just 28 and earning just $5.4 million he will have many clubs interesting in bringing him on board.  Suppose he capped out at $12 million or so per season for 5 years...that's less money than Carlos Carrasco earns right now.

There are other names out there, of course, including the recovering Frankie Montas who used to pitch alongside Chris Bassitt in Oakland, but many have red flags about durability or consistency.  Who is the big name the Mets should secure (besides Shoehei Ohtani)?