Thanks for that. I’ve always wondered what exactly were the criteria for these rankings. And I assume that the goal is to list prospects in some order that reflects back on their mlb productivity decades hence—a future hindsight if you will. So two questions:
What differentiates tools from talent? Ceiling from talent? Does tools define ceiling and talent the probability that you get that ceiling with those tools? That was one question. :-)
Could you illustrate how your TTC grades are used (independently or collectively) to place, say, J-Rodriguez over Nieuwenhuis over Cecilliani on your list? Pick any other example you think might better (more easily) illustrate the process.
Wow... Mack's Baseball are now getting questions with follow-ups?
Boy, where do I begin...
First of all, I'm going to try and explain how I grade, but I have never seen a uniform system used in this process. If any of you scouts out there that read this (Bill? Carlos?) can help me out here, or thing my approach needs improvement, please join in.
What differentiates tools from talent?
We all know the 5-tools... hitting for average, hitting for power, base running skills and speed, throwing ability, and fielding ability. I give two points to each of these categories and it's tough to find a ten-pointer.
Talent, is how one uses their tools. Talent is always knowing where your runners are... talent is that famous Derek Jeter toss to the catcher... and lack of talent is when someone like Jordany Valdepsin doesn't turn the easy ground balls.
Ceiling from talent:
To me, ceiling is untapped talent and development. A perfect example of this was catcher Francesco Pena three years ago. Amazing untapped ceiling. I looked at him and thought "now, that's a catcher's body".
Lack of ceiling is the myriad amount of SP5 pitches the Mets currently have at AAA and AA. Not enough velo to start in the majors and not enough sickness to be a reliever.
Does tools define ceiling and talent the probability that you get that ceiling with those tools?
Again, this is just how I define these questions.
There are two levels of "ceiling". Your current ceiling (he is faster than anyone in the system) and untapped ceiling (he will be the fastest runner in the system once he learns to get a jump...). Most of the kids coming out of the International system and the USA high schools are way under trained. As the Kingsport guys say, "you come here to learn the game you have played all your life...". This is when ceiling starts to diminish and reality sets in.
Yeah, you get the ceiling with the tools. You define the tools as you reach the limits of your ceiling.
Could you illustrate how your TTC grades are used (independently or collectively) to place, say, J-Rodriguez over Nieuwenhuis over Cecilliani on your list? Pick any other example you think might better (more easily) illustrate the process
J-Rod: - excellent speed ... projectable power, pure athlete shows all 5-tools - total of 10 points.
Kirk: - dangerous speed/power combo... consistently hits for average... good, not great, throwing arm... current poor strike zone management... possibly has reached ceiling limits... 7 points
Cecil: - hits for average... limited power... excellent speed and athleticism...excellent center field defense... 7 points
After this process, I begin to throw in other gut-feeling factors, one important one being how he currently fits into the system and how close he is to the Bigs. Again, that's just me. It's one of the reason I have Kirk ahead of Darrell, though on pure prospect terms, Ceciliani should be ranked higher than Nieuwenhuis.
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