Q&A Weekend: - The 2011 Mets

Brendan McGarry sent this:

Mack,



I recently started taking a look at your site. I like it. In regard to your 2011 Mets roster/salaries, I have some ideas that would keep the Mets payroll just about where it is, while ridding them of Perez, Castillo, & Beltran. Unfortunately, my scenario has K-Rod still on the roster. Although your idea of just releasing Perez & Castillo is probably a more likely scenario, my plan involves other teams willing to work w/the Mets, and the Mets giving up some prospects. 1st)assuming Santana is not ready for the start of the season, the Mets offer Beltran & a top pitching prospect(i.e. Mejia, Familia, Gee, Holt) to Boston for Daisuke Matsuzaka & Jacoby Ellsbury. The $20 mil that Matsuzaka is owed thru 2012 cancels out Beltran's salary next year, but essentially saves the Mets $10 mil next season, and gets the Mets a solid #3 starter at a decent price. 2nd)offer Castillo($6 mil) to Detroit for Carlos Guillen($12.5 mil). I'd have to think Detroit would consider this move if for no other reason than they'd be saving about $6 mil, and that city is struggling financially. Also, Guillen ended this season on the DL, and he's older than Castillo. My last move is to offer Ollie Perez, Ruben Tejada, & another prospect(maybe Fernando Martinez) to Kansas City for Gil Meche & Mike Aviles. I love Aviles...'09 aside, he's a high on-base % guy, he plays hard, and he's a NYC kid. Hopefully if Meche is healthy, he can be their 5th starter until Santana is back, & then he can be a long-relief guy. I know my ideas cost the Mets some good prospects, but honestly, if they had Ellsbury, F-Mart would have no spot on this team for the near future anyway, and frankly, 4 out of their 5 infielders are still homegrown. So here's how my 2011 Mets team looks opening day: Reyes-SS, Ellsbury-RF, Pagan-CF, Wright-3B, Davis-1B, Bay-LF, Thole-C, Aviles-2B, & pitcher. W/a healthy Santana, here's the rotation & bullpen: Santana, Pelfrey, Matsuzaka, Niese, Dickey, & bullpen(in no particular order)- Meche, Parnell, Takahashi, Feliciano, Igarashi, Rodriguez, & Acosta &/or Green. Lastly, my bench: Guillen(versatile & good veteran leader), Murphy(hopefully versatile), Carter(gritty), Nick Evans, & Blanco(good veteran leader). Let me know what you think.
 
This is a well thought out plan.
 
Brendan, regarding 2011, I.'m open to anything because, frankly, what the team has right now, doesn't work. I didn't say they weren't talented enough, it's just not a great team.
 
I tend to get very focused during the season and concentrate on the Mets, not the rest of baseball. I could hardly tell you ten players on the Braves, no less what any American League team is doing, but, when playoffs roll around, I put on TBS and use it as background music.
 
It doesn't take long to realize that Philadelphia and the Yankees are in another league when it comes to talent, and frankly, I didn't realize what a great lineup 1-8 Texas has. Now I understand why it was vital that they sign Cliff Lee.
 
The Mets had a great pitching year in a park that is pitching friendly. Half their games are played here; therefore, it  is vital to have dominant pitching, a golden glove defense and speed and intelligence on the base paths.
 
I love the Jacob Ellsbury move. I think he would blossom in Citi Field; however, I thought Jeff Francoeur would also.
 
I'm going to assume that Jason Bay comes back 100%. That's 25-HRs. Add 25 for David Wright and Ike Davis (IMO, that's about the limit for Ike). You need one more 25+ HR guy for a formidable 3-4-5-6 lineup, and, the worse case would be Carlos Beltran.
 
You add to that the 1-2 punch of Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan, and, frankly, that's the start of a very good team.
 
It still comes down to dominant starting pitchers that can average 7 innings per start. Playoff teams have three very good starters. Playoff winners have three very good starters, one of which is named either Lee, Halladay, or C.C.
 
The 2011 Mets have NO SP1, one SP2 (Santana) who starts the season on the IR, three SP3s (Niese, Dickey, and Pelfrey), an untested rookie (Mejia) and two SP5s (Gee and Misch). Their ace in the hole is a 36-year old (Takahashi) and an $11mil bag-o-balls (Perez).
 
I like your plan, but me...  I'd go with Beltran for one more year. He's one of the best, it will be his last contract year, and I expect him to have a great season.  That, plus what I outlined above, leaves me a second baseman, a catcher, and pitching, pitching, pitching.
 
Now, if you want me to tell you what I would do there... ask me more questions.
 
Mack