12/16/11

Breaking Down – Mets Needs –Toronto Blue Jays


Players Under Contract past 2012:
RF Jose Bautista, LHSP Ricky Romero, DH Adam Lind, SS Yuniel Escobar, SS Adeiny Hechavarria, RHP Sergio Santos
Free Agents After 2012: -
3B/RF Mark Teahen, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, OF Rajai Davis
ARB Eligible Players Excelling at Tampa Bay:

3B Brett Lawrie, LF Eric Thames, RHSP Henderson Alvarez, RHP Carlos Villanueva, RHSP Brandon Morrow, LHSP Brett Cecil, RHSP Kyle Drabek, C J.P. Arencibia

ETA: 2012:

Anthony Gose OF -  Born: 8/10/1990 -  Highest Level Reached: Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats -  2011 Combined Stats: .253, 20(2B), 7(3B), 16HR, 56RBI, 70SB

Adeiny Hechavarria SS -  Born: 4/15/1989 -  Highest Level Reached: Triple-A Las Vegas 51′s -  2011 Combined Stats: .264, 28(2B), 8(3B), 8HR, 57RBI, 20SB

Travis d’Arnaud C -  Born: 2/10/1989 -  Highest Level Reached: Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats -  2011 Combined Stats: .311, 33(2B), 1(3B), 21HR, 78RBI


ETA: 2013:

Drew Hutchison RHP -  Born: 8/22/1990 -  Highest Level Reached: Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats -  2011 Combined Stats: 14-5, 2.53ERA, 149.1IP, 35BB, 171K, .220BAA

Deck McGuire RHP -  Born: 6/23/1989 -  Highest Level Reached: Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats -  2011 Combined Stats: 9-5, 3.02ERA, 125.1IP, 45BB, 124K, .232BAA


ETA: 2014+

Jake Marisnick OF -  Born: 3/30/1991 -  Highest Level Reached: Low-A Lansing Lugnuts -  2011 Combined Stats: .320, 27(2B), 6(3B), 14HR, 77RBI, 37SB

Daniel Norris LHP -  Born: 4/25/1993 -  Highest Level Reached: Did Not Play In 2011 -  2011 Combined Stats: 2nd Round Pick In 2011 MLB Draft

Justin Nicolino LHP -  Born: 11/22/1991 -  Highest Level Reached: Low-A Lansing Lugnuts  2011 Combined Stats: 6-2, 1.33ERA, 61IP, 13BB, 73K, .181BAA

Noah Syndergaard RHP -  Born: 8/29/1992 -  Highest Level Reached: Low-A Lansing Lugnuts -  2011 Combined Stats: 5-2, 1.83ERA, 59IP, 18BB, 68K, .211BAA

Aaron Sanchez RHP -  Born: 7/1/1992 -  Highest Level Reached: Short-A Vancouver Canadians -  2011 Combined Stats: 3-3, 5.30ERA, 54.1IP, 26BB, 56K, .255BAA

Adonys Cardona RHP -  Born: 1/16/1994 -  Highest Level Reached: Rookie League GCL Blue Jays -  2011 Combined Stats: 1-3, 4.55ERA, 31.2IP, 12BB, 35K, .256BAA

A.J. Jimenez C -  Born: 5/1/1990 -  Highest Level Reached: High-A Dunedin Blue Jays -  2011 Combined Stats: .303, 29(2B), 1(3B), 4HR, 52RBI, 11SB

John Stilson RHP -  Born: 7/28/1990 -  Highest Level Reached: Did Not Play In 2011 -  2011 Combined Stats: 3rd Round Pick 2011 MLB Draft

Jacob Anderson OF  -  Born: 11/22/1992 -  Highest Level Reached: Rookie League GCL Blue Jays -  2011 Combined Stats: .405 (15 hits in 37 at-bats), 2(2B), 2HR, 7RBI (Supplemental 1st Round Pick 2011 MLB Draft)

Marcus Knecht OF -  Born: 6/21/1990 -  Highest Level Reached: Low-A Lansing Lugnuts -  2011 Combined Stats: .273, 34(2B), 3(3B), 16HR, 86RBI

Research:

 http://topprospectalert.com/2011/12/12/2012-toronto-blue-jays-top-15-prospect-rankings

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=463&stn=true&sid=t463

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tlGuOwsSqqOBS4H6hAg-Q_Q&output=html

Needs:  1B, 2B
Thoughts:
The 2012 rotation is set and there is the necessary amount of additions in the pipeline.
The Blue Jays have options at third base, catcher,  and shortstop.
OF Gose will slot in perfectly when Davis turns to free agency after the 2012 season.
Summary Suggestion:

This one is pretty simple. You want one of their catchers, you trade them one of your first basemen. They obviously will  ask for Davis, but you have to offer them Duda in a package. They do have 6 viable starters; however, their next top pitching prospect is far from either AAA or AA.

My first offer would be Duda and Gorski.

If that doesn't work, I don't go up to Familia. Instead, I throw in a high end low affiliate prospect like Aderlan Rodriguez or Juan Urbina. Teams like the Blue Jays can only survive with starts playing for the minimum and they simply can't have enough prospects in their system.

C Travis d'Arnaud for 1B Lucas Duda, SP Darin Gorski, and 3B Aderlin Rodriguez





5 comments:

Stephen Guilbert said...

d'Arnaud is one of the few prospects I would pony up to get. Losing Duda would suck...I like him a lot but I would trade him and Gorski for d'Arnaud. The Jays could get a lot more for him though which is what that wouldn't happen. You gotta figure they'd demand Davis or one of the big four.

Charles said...

I expect monster numbers...monster...numbers, from Lucas Duda this season. From 2013 on...he is the Mets most popular player. "The Dude" will out perform all previous existing knowledge from scouting and totally shock MetsLand. Just got a feeling. Going with my gut on this one. If they gotta do it, I'd understand. But if they don't, I'd be just fine with that.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Charles, we see eye to eye yet again. I've been a fan of Duda longer than most (probably not Mack but he's a sage on these things anyway) and a lot of people thought he'd be another fringe player after his awful MLB debut. I am so glad for him that he's come around and I hope (and think as well) that we've only seen the tip of the iceberg to his power potential.

Michael S. said...

In a heartbeat.

Michael S. said...

I wonder if the Mets would be able to pry Jake Marisnick away. They obviously lack depth in the OF as well. I don't know...with the rumors of interest in Niese and Murphy as well as the FO connections, I have to think there is so chance of a trade.