Mike Friere - New York Mets Positional Analysis 2012 and Beyond - Part Two

This series of articles will analyze a different position on the Mets’
team each week, with the intent to look at where we are now (2012) and
where we are headed in the future (think 2014 and beyond, otherwise
known as "Sandy’s timetable").

This type of analysis can be helpful, in that it sheds light on specific
roster moves, or a lack thereof, as we progress towards 2014.   A single
move may not make much sense at first, but if you take a step back and
look at the time line as a whole, it becomes much easier to figure out
what Sandy’s true plan is.

At times, I may also using some basic statistics to make a point, but I
will try to keep it light since that is not everyone’s “thing” so to
speak.   Basically, I am going to look at the top ten players at the
specific position, try to generate an average for the list and compare
it to where we are and where we want to be.   After all, imagine if we
had top ten talent at every position on the field!   I would take that
in a heartbeat, and so should you.

Last week, I took a look at the catcher position and after I recovered
from getting sick, I came to the conclusion that the cupboard is bare!
I would rank catcher as our greatest area of need and one Sandy needs to
continue to address (the just concluded draft was a nice start).  For
this week’s installment, I want to move over to first base and see how
things are looking.

On the surface, you might say that Ike Davis is the present AND the
future.   In May of 2011, I would have agreed with you.   However, the
past fourteen months have been a bit “shaky” for Ike (a former number
one draft pick, by the way).   Between his freak ankle injury last year,
a longer then expected recovery time, possibly contracting “Valley
Fever” in the off season and then a horrifically slow start to the 2012
season, it is easy to forget how promising the start of his career truly
was.

Some folks were mentioning Ike in the same sentence as Joey Votto!   OK,
that was probably my fault in an article on this site last year, but the
comparison was not that far fetched, at least in the small sample size
that Ike’s 2011 season comprised.   In late spring of this year, Ike
looked like a “poor man’s” version of Rico Brogna, which is not intended
as a compliment.

Adhering to the old adage “you are never as good as you look when you
win, and you are never as bad as you look when you lose”, I think Ike
falls somewhere in the middle.  We will get back to Ike shortly.

In the meantime, why don't we define what an acceptable first baseman
truly is.   Give me the second coming of Keith Hernandez and I am set
for the next decade!  Or, more specifically, I want a first baseman who
is a great fielder, a leader on the field and one who can bat in a power
position in the lineup (think third, fourth or fifth).

Let's start by looking at a top ten list for first basemen to get a
baseline of what we would like to have. I will use an average of the top
ten players for the 2011 season (the last complete season to date).
Furthermore, I will only look at players the had at least 500 plate
appearances and then use OPS (on base percentage, plus slugging
percentage) to evaluate the players, since it is an inclusive statistic
(not perfect, but a solid choice).

Defense is also important and can be looked at many different ways,
especially at first base (more so then behind the plate).  In this case,
I will rank the players based on offensive potential and then comment on
defense, as sort of a tiebreaker.

The top ten list was as follows;  Fielder, Gonzalez, Votto, Morse,
Pujols, Konerko, Young, Texiera, Howard and Butler.   A few surprising
names, to be sure.  

Of the listed players, only Gonzalez, Votto and
Texiera are considered "excellent" defenders, in my opinion.
Furthermore, the “average” amongst the top ten first basemen’s averages
(weird way of putting it) is 581 AB’s and an OPS of .895 (despite
several players on the list playing multiple positions).

Getting back to Ike, in 2011 (small sample size, before his injury) he
was actually putting up an OPS of .925 in approximately 130 plate
appearances!  Plus, he is generally regarded as one of the best
defensive first basemen in all of baseball.  Problem solved!
Not so fast.  As stated earlier, 2012 has not been so kind.  Currently,
Ike is producing an OPS of .675 in approximately 330 plate appearances!
That, my friends, is not acceptable!

So what gives?  Is Ike rusty?  Is the "Valley Fever" more severe then we
thought?   Will he eventually recover and produce closer to his 2011
statistical line?

To be fair, Ike's start to the year was a train wreck.  For the last
thirty days (85 plate appearances) Ike is producing a much more
acceptable OPS of.837, which is much closer to his career average.
So, going forward, I am confident that Ike will be closer to the 2011
version, then the 2012 version.  If that is the case, at 25 years old,
he could be part of our present, as well as our future.

I certainly hope so, because the roster has enough other holes to fill,
without having to worry about first base.

Just in case, what about the minor leagues?  I think it is hard to look
at anyone below AA and truly project their future (plus kids in A ball
are at least three years away, if not more).   I will generally leave
that speculation up to the other writers here who are more in tune with
the “kids”.   However, initially looking at AA and AAA (and other
alternatives on the major league roster), you have the following
players;

Duda (Mets-RF) .726, Pascucci (AAA) .769, *Satin (AAA) .851, Dykstra
(AA) .928 and Ozga (AA) .541, notwithstanding the lower levels.
Well, that is not a robust list of prospects.  Duda is probably more
suited to first base, instead of RF, but would not be a defensive
stalwart (he is actually a future DH in my opinion).  The remaining list
does not contain one true prospect (most of them are older then Ike,
which is crazy).  Satin is technically a utility player and may have a
future in Queens as just that, but not as an every day first baseman.
In closing, Ike better be the answer at first base.   There isn't much
in the upper levels of the minor leagues and the lower levels may not
produce a first baseman by 2014 (although, keep an eye on Jayce Boyd).
With all of this team's problems, I think first base is pretty far down
the list.  

 I have faith in Ike!