Mike Friere - Alternate Look At The Mets’ Season To Date

Let me start by saying that I am as disappointed as any Mets’ fan, with the recent implosion of our bullpen and our pitching as a whole since the All Star break.   In turn, that has led to a nasty run of losses, which has taken the luster off of our “better then expected” start to the season.

But, think about what I just said.   The recent swoon has dampened our enthusiasm, which was only elevated because we were playing better then anyone expected at the end of Spring Training.   An emotional roller coaster, to be sure.   However, I think if we look back at the start of the year (and revisit our expectations), we wouldn’t be too upset with the record that we have today.

Most of us were somewhat realistic, in that we wanted the team to show some improvement over 2011, while doing everything possible to improve our chances in 2013 (or more likely 2014).   That, my fellow fans, has not changed and despite the recent run of horrible baseball, should still be the goal.   I am attempting to break down where we are and where we need to go, in a different series of articles on this site, so I will save the analysis for that project.

What I wanted to illustrate to all of you is that the Mets are pretty much where they should be, based on the most basic and meaningful statistic, which is runs scored and runs allowed.  Those two categories can be further analyzed if you plug them into a handy formula called the Pythagorean Win Theorum (I broke this formula down a few months ago, during a series that looked closer at Sabermetrics).

Basically, if you use the listed formula, you can come pretty close to what your win and loss record should be, based on the differential between the two numbers.
Briefly (and I do mean briefly), the formula generates a “winning percentage” that you can apply to the total amount of games played and get an expected win/loss record.  The actual formula looks like this;

Win% = (runs scored)2  divided by (runs scored)2 + (runs allowed)2

(remember the correct order of operations, which is parenthesis, exponents, multiplication, division, addition and subtraction, or the handy pneumonic “please excuse my dumb ass sergeant”).

I know, “shut up, already” and give us the facts!   OK, through an even 100 games played, the Mets have scored 451 runs and allowed 462 runs.    Saving you the boring math, the formula above generates an expected winning percentage of 0.488, which translates to a record of 49-51.   Pretty cool, right?   Well, the record isn’t that great, but it is only off by one win, since our current record is 48-52 (thanks bullpen!).

What was interesting, was the runs scored column.   The Mets are currently the fifth highest scoring team in the NL and the twelfth highest scoring team in all of baseball (with the collection of rag tag players after David Wright, no less).   Maybe there is something to working the count and emphasizing on base percentage?

Where I got sick, is looking at the runs allowed column.   The 462 runs allowed puts the Mets near the bottom of the NL and twenty-third in all of baseball.  Clearly, that is in large part attributed to the so called “relief pitching”, but the starters have contributed, too.   That number has to come down if things are going to change.
Taking a quick look at the two teams ahead of us in our own division, the Nationals and Braves both have positive run differentials.   The Mets have outscored the Nationals by twenty-six runs, but they have also given up 105 more runs then Strasburg and his merry band of flamethrowers!     That is over one run per game less that their pitching staff has allowed in comparison.

The Braves are a bit closer to us, with “only” a positive run differential of forty-six runs.  That is less than half a run per game overall.   Not a huge margin, but it shows you how close teams that win are, compared to teams that do not win (as much).  Small adjustments can go a long way toward altering a team's run differential and the corresponding wins and losses.

With the way our ballpark is constructed, run prevention will always be the key to winning and that starts with your pitching staff and fundamentally sound defensive squad.

If we are going to catch the Nationals and Braves in 2013 and beyond, we need to improve across the board.   However, Sandy’s efforts should be on players that can field and pitchers that can pitch more effectively and hold on to leads!