What Exactly Is Justin Upton Worth?


Jon Heyman tweeted that the Seattle offer was

LHP Charlie Furbish – 48-G, 5-2, 2.72, 0.95, 53-K/46.1-IP

RHP Stephen Pryor – 26-G, 3-1, 3.91, 27K/23.0-IP

SS Nick Franklin - #3 prospect in organization

And one of either:

                RHP Taijuan Walker - #1 prospect in organization
                LHP Danny Hultzen - #2 prospect in organization
                LHP James Paxton – #6 prospect in organization

Do you still think the Mets can put a package together and compete at this level?  You’re talking Bobby Parnell, Josh Edgin,  Noah Syndergaard and either Zack Wheeler or Travis d-Arnaud.

Give this one a rest...


Herb G said...

First off, it's Furbush (a rather erotic name, if I do say so myself) not Furbish.

That is one strong package. There is a big difference between them including Walker vs. Paxton. Like the difference between Wheeler and Familia for us. Still it's a strong package, and I, for one, don't think Upton is worth near that much. I'd give up that much and more for Stanton, but no way for Upton.

Mack Ade said...

The problem is that the value of the player isn't driving some of the deals this year. We saw this earlier with SPs.

The Mets were on the right side of this unbalanced equation with the Dickey deal but surely aren't anymore.

Mack Ade said...

Sorry about the spelling, Herb.

I'm well known for my lack of correct spelling... I do a lot of typing in bed, especially at night, and I have a hard time seeing the keys.

Frankly, the comments section of Blogspot doesn't allow for one to go back an correct things, so I come off badly here.

I do think I've been better lately.

Charles said...

That package for Upton is nuts.

Charles said...

The guy doesn't hit as well away from Arizona...so imagine if he played at Safeco field. The mariners GM is insane. He has tremendous pitching prospects just like the Mets, maybe better. He should have learned from the Giants, pitching wins championships.

Will Kohane said...

The Mets wouldn't have to match the offer. The Mets are probably a much more attractive destination for Upton (NYC, Wright). And since he rejected the deal, the offer itself is irrelevant in terms of setting the Upton market.

And despite the down year and the home/road splits, I believe Upton has the potential to be a foundation piece for the Mets' next great era. It's a chance to get a very talented player on the relative cheap because the GM seemingly wants him out (see Bauer, Trevor) and he's coming off the down year.

I don't trade Wheeler for Upton but I am willing to part with Syndergaard, Flores and two more pieces. It's a tough one but guys with Upton's upside (at his age) don't often come around.

Mack Ade said...


Good to hear from you again.

You do make a good point.

Synder, Flores, plus 2 secondary prospects would be fine by me.

I just don't think it will stand up with other offers.

Charles said...

I'd do that for Stanton.

For Upton? Nope. He's played a few years already at the ML level. I'm not giving up that package for a ML'er who has been around for a while and we're still waiting for him to reach his potential.

The reason the Ratys and Mets got those great packages was because the Royals and Toronto were receiving bonafide frontline starters. Guys that have proved themselves already. Upton, so far, has been a good player. I wouldn't pay a superstar price for his stats yet.

Will Kohane said...

Flores is not in the same league as D'Arnaud or Myers as a prospect. So there is a substantial difference between this package and the ones that the Mets and Rays received for their pitchers.

TheCloser said...

Im in agreement with Will. I think the problem is a lot of people don't value Upton the same. Clearly Kevin Towers knows he has a chip and is going to try and get as much as he possibly can, but isn't Seattle on his no trade list anyway? Upton would much rather come here than Seattle for reason Will mentioned. I think I've mentioned it in the past but a deal with Flores, Synerblock and even Dillon Gee+ another mid level prospect, Havens, Gorski, Lageres, Lutz, etc...probably wont be the best deal, but will get us in the conversation at least. I think Upton is someone we can build around and not just a secondary piece. At his age, he's on the upswing, not on the way down. Typically guys put up their best numbers i their 26-30 years and hes just 24 right now. I'd be willing to part with almost anyone not named wheeler, Harvey, Niese or wright.

I think there is a zero percent chance Stanton ever becomes a Met. If I'm the Marlins, would I want to see this guy breaking HR records against them, in their home ball park, as a Met? No chance unless we gave up our top 4-5 prospects and absolutely blew them away with a package, I don't even think its a realistic option.

Charles said...

I think the closer is nuts.

Upton isn't a good player when put in pitchers parks.. Where do the Mets play again? Yeah, let's give up a future ace pitcher, our best hitting prospect, our number 4 starter that's good enough to be a number three in most rotations plus our only left handed starting pitcher prospect for a guy who'll fill one roster spot and produce average numbers 3/4 of the season because that's how many games he'll play in pitchers parks.

If by some miracle Sandy could get him for a packaged centered around Flores, I'd say okay, but not one centered around Wheeler, d'naurd, Niese, Syndergaard, Harvey, or Fulmer.

Flores, Montero, Familia...take it or leave it.

Herb G said...

I wish we could stop talking abut Upton. There are at least a dozen outfielders I would prefer to acquire, many of whom we identified in the "In Search of an Outfielder" series, and all of whom would come much cheaper than Upton. I continue to believe that Upton is overrated, that his performance away from Chase Field is a warning sign, and that we would regret giving up whatever it took to obtain him.

If we must talk about Upton, however, the first thing we need to consider is that, other than the teams specified in his no trade clause, it doesn't matter where he would prefer to play. You don't think Towers is going to give us a break because Justin might be happier playing with his boyhood friend, do you?

Secondly, IMO the Mets clearly have the combo of MLB players and prospects to snag him. The question is 'does Sandy believe he is worth giving those chips away for him'? If he did, Upton would be a Met by now. Based on the players in the Seattle non-deal, a package of Synders, Flores, Edgin and Kolarek (or close to it) could get it done. Personally, I wouldn't bite on that hook. But as leery as I am of Upton, it would be worth it to me if they accepted a package of Mejia, Flores, Tapia, Kolarek, and Lagares.

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