5/9/14

Morning Report – May 9th – Playing .500 Ball, 2015 Rotation, Greg Peavey, 1st Tier Update



        Coming Later Today –

                10 am - Big League Futures - Mock 2.0

                12 noon – Top 10 SS in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 5-6-14

                 3 pm – Top 11 RHP in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 5-2-14

                 6 pm - Sean Reid-Foley, Jakson Reetz, Bradley Zimmer, Jordan Brink, Trace Loehr



Per @BenBadler of BA, Mets are favorites to land switch-hitting Venezuelan SS Wilkerman Garcia, one of 2014's top international prospects. Offensive orientated with projection to 3B.


Mets pitchers rank 13th in the National League with a 44.5% ground ball rate.


17-year-old RHP Jacob Bukauskas, a potential first-round choice in the upcoming draft, has notified scouts that he plans to attend the University of North Carolina. This is the second potential first round RHP (East Carolina’s Jeff Hoffman – TJS) that will be out of the picture for the 10th overall pick.

Frankly, the chances of SS Trae Turner still being available at this slot has greatly diminished with this news. Sad.



Whether we like it or not, we are either rooting for, or writing about, an organization that has a parent team that is playing in the .500 range. My guess is that’s how this season is going to go.

This is all fine with me as long as this team has a goal to get to the .600 range in 2015.

Some of you want this team to win now. I want this team to win big. Big isn’t going to happen shuttling 30+ year old relievers in and out of the game. And big isn’t going to happen playing two under-producing shortstops hoping they find a game they have never played.

We can’t bring back Matt Harvey this year, but there are some things this team can do in 2014 to, first, insure a maximum result in 2015, but also a possible decent end result this season.

Let’s go over a few.

1.    Let’s make sure one of the top pitchers in Queens is pitching in the right role. The Mets need effective back-end relievers and Jenrry Mejia would be happy with either a fixed 8th or 9th inning role. If that’s true, get him back there where he can be the most effective this season, as well as the future. The problem is this isn’t going to happen until June when all these ‘Super 2’ working parts can be moved at the same time. So, hang in there while Mejia gives you five innings and the old guys come in to hold the fort down.

2.   My assumption is that the 2015 rotation will include Harvey, the two most effective starters this season (Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee), and both Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard. The wait will be over. The future will be now.

3.   That being said, the next moves in June will be a promotion for both Jacob deGrom and Rafael Montero. I’ll let the Mets make the first decision here… one has to replace Mejia as a starter while the other replaces the least effective member of the pen. I have no problem building a future pen around deGrom, Montero, Parnell, and Mejia. I’d like to think Jeurys Famila, Vic Black, and Zack Thornton get a fair shake here too. This could be a very talented, young pen ready to support an even more talented, young rotation. This is the future of your team, not who plays shortstop or the eventual replacement for the Young boys in the outfield.



             Another pitcher to keep on your radar…

            Fringe, second-tier prospect Greg Peavey tossed a CG gem on Wednesday for Binghamton. The 25-year old was a 6th round pick in 2010 and has compiled a minor league stat line (4-yrs  going into this game) of: 26-20, 4.42, 1.33, 399-IP, 276-K.

            I’m not sure if Peavey can be considered as a trading chip, but he could be someone that the Mets might want to consider down the line for pen action.



The Mets may not have a tremendous amount of top tier prospects, but the ones they do have are doing okay this year. In no particular order (stats through end of games 5-8):
           
            1B Dominic Smith – A - 19 -A – now hitting .262, but more importantly, .438 through the last 10 games (9-15 last four games). Starting to become very comfortable at this level.

            2B Dilson Herrera – A+ - 20 – Hitting a lofty .291, but only .275 in last 10 games. Has basically hit .300+ all season as leadoff man. On target to finish the season in Binghamton.

            SS Wilmer Flores – AAA – 22 – went 3-6 Wednesday night and wound up hitting .307 before being recalled by the Mets today.

SS Gavin Cecchini – A - 20 - now hitting .280, but more importantly, .395 in last 10 games (17-38 in last nine games). Starting to become very comfortable at this level.

CF Brandon Nimmo – A+ - 21 – ‘slumping’ these past 10 games (.257) down to a season average of .344. Has only shown tendency to play below par when injured. Also is in target to finish the season in Binghamton.

C Kevin Plawecki – AA – 23 - batting .288 for the season, .268 in the last 10 games. Only 0-HR and 4-RBIs so far this season.

RP Vic Black – AAA – 26 - has saved four games in Triple-A with a 0.68 ERA. Four consecutive appearances without issuing a walk

SP Noah Syndergaard – AAA – 21 – 7-starts, 4-2, 3.58 in tough league. Will eventually be promoted to Queens this season, probably in September.

SP Rafael Montero – AAA – 23 – 7-starts, 3-1, 4.21 in tough league – on target for June elevation to the majors

SP Jacob deGrom – AAA – 26 – 7-starts, 4-0, 2.58, the best results for the ‘big three’ AAA starters, most probably headed to Flushing pen in June.

SP Steven Matz – A+ - 23 - 6-starts, 2-2, 2.14, 1.22… having excellent mid-range year… on target for mid to late season promotion to AA level
           



14 comments:

TP said...

Mack,
Good stuff. Excellent to note Black's 4th consecutive appearance with no BB. He is on the cusp of a promotion, and with him it is all about the control.

I am in the grup that despises "throw away" seasons and deferring until the "kids are ready". Now, that doesn't mean mortgaging the future by dealing youth for past prime players or by signing dumb contracts. What is does mean is that teams that actually demonstrate sustained competitiveness don't ever write off seasons before they begin. Yeah, yeah, the Mets had to rebuild the system, we get it. but they they still demonstrate the mindset of losers. What happens if Harvey has a setback? What if Syndergaard gets lit up when he gets to Queens? We wait to 2015? 2016?

Bringing up Flores was a start. Nothing against Omar Q, but Tejada can play that utility role at 2B and SS. Let's give Wilmer a run at SS. Black should be next. He and Mejia should share the 7th and 8th innings. Move one into the closer role as soon as they settle into the pen and Farnsworth stumbles. Pick one of Montero/deGrom/Syndergaard for the opening starter.

One last note - it appears to me that the Marlins, yes, the Marlins, have more talent on their 25 man roster than the Mets. It also appears to me that may not change even after the Mets promote some of the young arms. The Mets have no one close to Stanton, they have no leadoff hitter with Yelich's potential, and Fernandez may even be better than Harvey before Harvey got hurt. This should be a huge reality check for Alderson.

Tom Brennan said...

Good update, Mack.
I am puzzled by Satin staying here. Brown has SCORCHED since his return to AAA (.485 on base, .727 slug). And Campbell continues to be an on base machine and has scored 39 times in 32 games. Two worthy possible replacements on a Mets team that craves offense. Neither may be the complete answer, but why not go with a hot hand?

Leathersich seems to be getting back on track like Vic Black - not as near-terms a possible recall, as he has more to prove, but worth tracking.

Ernest Dove said...

Hey Mack, how are some of the Mets top prospects in st Lucie gonna get promoted to Bingo? That team is full of 24+ yr old aaaa players. Will they finally start releasing some of those older guys with no future? (Probably comes off way too harsh, but they got 30yr olds on that team for god sake)

Mack Ade said...

metsiac7

I see no need to wait until June to move Mejia to the pen. Dice-K is not suited for the pen because of his long warmups and memtal prep, and can be the #5 SP if Jenrry is swapped with him. That would give us a month to see how it's working, before making the June decisions.

If Alderson hadn't passed on 2 RPs who wanted to be here this Winter, then Hawk or K-Rod would be doing their excellent Closer work to date for us instead of elsewhere.

At low cost.

Mack Ade said...

TP - your comments on the Marlins.

Like the Nats before them, the Marlins sure turned this around without us watching too closely. This happens if you get the creme of the draft year after year and you're not afraid to promote them.

The Tejada/Q to Flores/Tejada is the first move.

There will be more this year.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

There is a big difference between playing everyday against AAA pitching in dry air and cement like infields than sitting on the Mets bench hoping for some bat time. Neither Brown or Campbell would get much to do in Queens right now.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest - the entire system is backed up... most of the AA pitching staff should be in Vegas... it's a real mess right now

Mack Ade said...

Metsiac -

sound idea on Dice-K

not going back on the other stuff...

Unknown said...

I agree on hawk and krod. They didn't break the bank this winter.
I don't know if it was a typo Mack, but why would Synndy have to wait til september?

Reese Kaplan said...

Here's the whole issue in a nutshell: "you're not afraid to promote them."

Jose Fernandez is the poster child for promoting a pitcher when he's ready to contribute and screw the Super Two implications. This organization has more old prospects than I ever recall seeing in the past. Jacob de Grom, for example, will turn 26 right around when they feel his Super Two status is such that he's ripe for promotion. 26!!!

Ernest Dove said...

That fact that pitchers like 30+ yr old Dana Eveland are taking the mound every 5th/6th day in aaa instead of a double a prospect is what drives me insane.
And there are other 27+ yr old hitters and pitchers in vegas. I guess its obviously cool to see a first place team if u live in vegas, but. .........

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -

It wasn't a typo... I was just being conservative.

He's not going to have many innings left at any level anyway. I can't see any team wanting to trade for Colon so the only rotation move would be is to move Mejia to the pen. You already have to pick between Montero and deGrom to dill that slot.

I say leave him in Vegas and let him work on his game until the rosters expand.

Tom Brennan said...

Imagine, if we can't trade Colon, how hefty he'll get given that his incredibly large two year salary will buy a whole lot of burritos.

I hear you on the Las Vegas conditions (and far inferior pitching opposition), Mack. My thoughts are Satin may be the worst of him, Campbell and Brown, so even if he'd play little, I'd go with one of the LV guys. Preferably Campbell, who is more versatile than Satin and less prone to strike out.

What is your feel, Mack, on whether d'Arnaud ever gets going, or is just overrated and really back up quality? We really need more from him offensively.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I think d'Arnaud would hit fine for a club that would surround him with decent hitters.

It seems to me that everybody's target range is going to be around .250 this season. How sad.