Mack's Morning Report - 5-17-15 - Molina, Tulo, Mets Pitching, 1962 Mets


Good morning.

So, for their next act...

Do you think there is any chance that the Mets could now return to my plan of:

    1. the starters going 7 innings giving up less than 3 runs

   2. the relievers giving up only one run every third game in the 6 innings they will pitch

   3. And the Mets scoring 4 or more runs per game

If you can do this, you win... at least... 3 out of the next 4 games for the rest of the season.

You don't need 10 run innings (though they are fun)

You need quality starters... timely hitting... excellent defense...  and a little luck.

You've heard this from me countless times.

Let's start tonight with Noah...  7 innings... 2 runs...

My prediction for your next hot hitter... Michael Cuddyer.

And another no error game from the infield...

First, some more pitching bad news.  Prospect RHSP Marcos Molina may be on his way to the Tommy John Surgery ward down in the gulf of Florida. Seems Molina's throwing shoulder came up soar while throwing Thursday night and, the assumption, is he has been sent to New York for an MRI. I always try and get updates from St. Lucie about things like this, but they just don't email back.

I have Molina as the #2 pitching prospect (behind Steven Matz) with an 2018 ETA. That was before this injury.

Keep your fingers crossed here. (update - yes, he's on the disabled list)

Brandon Nimmo has also landed himself on the DL. Seems he turned his knee rounding first base or some stupid injury like that. The Mets are sending him to NYC on Monday for an MRI because I guess they don't have any of these machines in Binghamton.

Rotoworld speculated on Thursday that the Washington Nationals want to be in on any discussions of trading SS Troy Tulowitzki. Seems they feel that they have the prospects (A.J. Cole, Reynaldo Lopez, Erick Fedde, Joe Ross) to get this done. Oh, give me a fuckin' break, already. Could this team really have room for anymore all-star talent?

(and while we're on the subject of Washington shortstops, please stay away with any thoughts of signing Ian Desmond in the off-season. I've watched a fair amount of Nats games this season... Wilmer Flores may make better decisions with a glove on his hand than this guy.)

Dave Cameron/Fangraphs said on Friday that the Mets were the favorites in obtaining the services of SS Troy Tulowitzki this season:

As I said on Tuesday, the Mets are the best fit. They have the pitching depth that the Rockies want and the motivation to make a deal that makes them a legitimate Wild Card contender, rather than just hoping their hot start doesn’t get wiped out too quickly. If the Mets packaged Noah Syndergaard (#19), Amed Rosario (#60), and Steven Matz (#65) together, they’d very likely have their shortstop of the present and the future. Maybe the Rockies even settle for Thor and one of those two, plus some additional stuff. Or maybe they even package up enough of their lower-tier talents with Matz and Rosario to keep Syndergaard out of the deal, arguing that his early 2015 performance puts him in that top tier of guys that aren’t worth giving up. There are plenty of options here, and the Mets have enough depth of young talent to get Tulowitzki if they want him.

Mack – I don’t think you could get both Syndergaard and Matz away from Sandy Alderson for God. Take one of these guys out, throw in someone like catcher Kevin Plawecki, and even let Colorado pick another secondary starter like Luis Cessa or Gabrel Ynoa, and maybe you could get a deal done.

Comment From Marcus Banks - Michael Pineda is the best pitcher in New York City.

Paul Sporer: I’m still taking Matt Harvey over him.

Comment From John - at what point will the analytical community start turning on these “genius” gms like alderson? i mean this mets team is awful. he hasn’t addressed offense in 4 years. He signed way past prime mediocre players to contracts, surrendering draft pics in the process, and doesn’t address anything. Nobody believes Jon Niese or Colon can keep up what their doing, and weve seen the pen start to implode. We knew they weren’t as good as their 11 game win streak, but i cant watch any of these games and think – no it might get better. 5 years of this asshole is enough.      

Paul Sporer: Tough crowd. They’re still in first place. I do think Bartolo Colon’s season is perfectly legit. Niese is obviously due regression, but they’ve got hella pitching depth. I’d be thrilled if I were Mets fan right now, tbh. The future is bright.

Comment From Lago - Getting sick of Jacob DeGrom and don’t think he will perform like last year.

Paul Sporer: WHIP is a little high, but nothing else should be making you sick about him. He was sure to regress some from last year.

    Mack - It's obvious that Sporer is a big fan of the Mets current rotation. I am also and, frankly, all I would like manager Terry Collins to do is come up with a different plan for the last three innings of each of these games.

The Mets seem to be relatively in control of the vast majority of the games players through the first six innings.

Get two guys up warming up in the 7th inning... one lefty and one righty.

Also, (if you are leading the game), get Ruben Tejada in the game at SS, Kirk Nieuwenhuis out in LF, and Dilson Herrera on 2B (if they aren't already playing there).

Lastly, until David Wright comes back, replace Daniel Murphy at 3B beginning in the 7th inning with Danny Muno (send down a reliever).

Do this every night until the regulars get back.

A great story about the 1962 Mets -

But the Mets-as-losers myth would be nothing without the legendary 1962 Mets, a 40-120 team that was outscored by 331 runs — over two runs per game. Those Mets had just two regular hitters (Frank Thomas and Richie Ashburn) who posted a better OPS than the league average, and not a single pitcher with over 20 innings pitched with a better ERA than the league average. The 1962 Mets were a new kind of awful, a kind of hopeless baseball team not seen since the 20-134 Cleveland Spiders of 1899. This kind of terrible baseball was supposed to be extinct, but the 1962 Mets brought it back to life.


Ernest Dove said...

Of course, right after I finally give up on Wilmer (I've wanted him to stay up until last week) he goes ahead and changes the entire complection of a game with his OFFENSE rather than his defense.
What happens if he truly is a .275 15homer guy? Does his defense and low OBP Still prevent him ffrom staying on this team?

Hobie said...

OK, hows this for going out on limb? Over the next 3 years Wilmer Flores will play more games and have better offensive AND defensive stats than Tulo.

Syndergaard or Matz? No way.

Mike M said...

For me, it's not about what it would take to get Tulo. I just don't want him at all, even if Thor or Matz straight up could get him.

He's quickly approaching the downside if he's not already there with his recent hip injury. His numbers are at least somewhat inflated in CO, and his contract is going to become a burden in coming years. The Mets don't have much of a payroll now, but if they're going to start having to pay Harvey, Duda, d'Arnaud, etc, they can't be paying Tulo's awful contract during his decline years.

So I see why Sandy isn't interested. He's got an eye on the long term - not just this year. I'd much rather give up some talent for a young SS stud like Addison Russell.

Thomas Brennan said...

Why couldn't Wilmer hit .260 with 25 doubles and 25 homers, and settle down at SS and play it like he did for Mets last year? He'd be just fine, with a defensive replacement late in games.

The Mets went from the 1962 variety to 1986, all in one night, led by the arm...and bat...of Jake deGrom. He is not overrated. He is human.

Why don't we trade Wright for a good package when he reestablishes himself, and get Tulo to play 3rd? Just a thought. After all, who's older? Which one is more fragile?

Molina TJS would be a cryin' shame,but I'm keeping Matz and Thor. Tyler Pill could be useful soon, if needed, overcoming a bad start with back-to-back great starts.

bob gregory said...

The majority of Flores' errors seem to be on throws, not his hands as most forecasted.
He is still very young and has been bombarded by media and fans that keep criticizing his ability.
He is also learning how to deal with a manager that insists on placing him in the worst position in the batting order for any batter even though he is a career run producer.
His attempts to prove he deserves a more appropriate rbi producing position in the lineup are ignored, even though he leads the team in homerun and has 15 rbi.
Also...remember not too long ago Wright was having the same problem with his throws.

Mike M said...

I love Flores bat - I just don't think he's a SS. I think he could probably play any other INF position, but his throwing motion just doesn't work at SS. He can't turn and make that throw from deep in the hole consistently with the way he throws, and his range is just plain poor for a SS.

Trade Murph, move Flores to 2B, and bring up Reynolds as the Rosenthal whisper said.

Then, Herrera, Montero and Plawecki to the Cubbies for Russell.

Thomas Brennan said...

Mike, Cubs would have to consider that if Montero is healthy. Plawecki anh Herrera could both hit 20 homers playing in Chi-town. I'd still like to see Reynolds in AAA, Ssay until end of June, to solidify his hitting. If we were to move him to SS and Flores to 2nd, Matt has to be ready to hit every day in majors. Maybe he is already there, but he's cooled off in recent weeks in Vegas. Still doing OK, just cooler.

Mack, I'm glad to see YOU suggest recalling Muno before I did LOL. Last year, I was the guy pushing for him (P.S. I still agree with you, he'd be a good, scrappy switch hitting sub).

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

No, I want Tejada as my SS for the rest of the year

Mack Ade said...

Bob Gregory -

The majority of Flores' errors are not his hands or his throws... they are his head. He can't play the position and, in the long run, will cost you more runs than he will win games for you.

Reese Kaplan said...

So what is the thinking here about the reported story of promoting Reynolds to SS after Wright returns and shifting Flores to 2B while trading Murphy?

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

I like Murphy's bat better than Flores and he seems to be past him early season slump. Murphy is a professional hitter and will make less mistakes in the field than Flores.

I have no opinion on the Reynolds idea. I'd much rather play Tejada at short

Stubby said...

Scouting report is that Reynolds is a below average defensive shortstop. I don't know that he's an improvement over Flores at the position. Addison Russell is more untouchable to the Cubs than Matt Harvey is to the Mets. Give up any thoughts on getting him (unless you want to tempt fate by offering Thor, Matz AND Harvey for him). They're more likely to trade Castro. Not saying they will, but you couldn't pry away Russell with mountains of gold and God.

Its true, though, the Tulo ship may have sailed by now. And Desmond's a downgrade.

I still think the Mets shortstop of the future is Guillorme. He's probably not going to hit worth a damn in the majors, but he's the best natural shortstop the organization has had since Ordonez. If Lagares continues to hit well (.260 or better), then you can afford Guillorme even if he hits below the Mendoza line. Me, I'd jump him to the majors from Single-A tomorrow. The kid's a natural. Soft hands, instinctual movement on the pitch...before its hit.

Mack Ade said...

Stubby -

I'd like to think that we could lock up and throw away the key for the remainder of this decade to Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Wheeler. I believe a great team can be built around these five pitchers and, even if one goes down, the other four can hold the fort down with a fill in SP5

As for Guillorme and shortstop, I like your idea (and trust me... his father is smiling as he read this...), but let's let the proper process take place here.

I too think Reynolds needs to move over at the all-star break and make room for Cecchini. This will allow Roasrio to bump up to Binghamton and Guillorme to St. Lucie.

I'm sure Alderson could find a trade partner for Reynolds, for at least a lower level outfield or relief prospect with more ceiling.

Thomas Brennan said...

I think Luis Guillorme has the chance to hit too. He's hitting truly well this year after skipping over Bklyn. No power to speak of, but they said the same (largely) of Reynolds.

To Stubby or anyone else, a question: how does Luis stack up, in your view, vs. Wilfredo Tovar, who is a few years older, also a reputed glove man, and hitting well in the minors 3 levels up from Luis in AAA?

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