5/29/17

Mack's Morning Report - Terry Collins, Promotion Time, Sam Carlson

11 comments



Good morning.


Terry Collins

We on Mack’s Mets have been telling you for quite a while that Terry Collins does not pull the shots on this team. 

We’ve especially singled out the issue of filling out the lineup cards and pointing out that the decisions who plays where and when have come from the troika of John Ricco (Sr. VP of Baseball Operations), Sandy Alderson (GM) and J.P. Ricciardi (Special Assistant to Alderson).

Now, even more is coming to light and Collins might be being axed out of being involved in the reporting of injuries to the press.  See this story

Maybe Collins and Sean Spicer can get an apartment together and tell each other all the things they are being kept in the dark about.



Betsy Helfand‏  @betsyhelfand -  LHP Dave Roseboom hurt his foot during a game in RR. Was placed on DL yesterday. Lopez said he was "probably going to be out for a while."



Promotion Time –

            We’re getting close to June 1st (no, I’m not talking ‘Super 2’) so promotions within the pipeline should start to begin soon.

There’s no absolute science here. 10 starts is the norm for a starter to earn an extra stripe, but some have risen far before that and many definitely far later. Half the batters rise when there is an injury while there just doesn’t seem to be any predictable pattern with relievers.

            Other factors are age and team needs.

            Here’s my thoughts on some of the guys that should be moving soon –

SP P.J. Conlon – Conlon has a 3.02-ERA/1.04-WHIP after nine starts in Binghamton and we all know that the current Las Vegas rotation is from hunger. Corey Oswalt is probably not far behind Conlon, but he’ll be the first to go.

RP Tim Peterson -  Is there something wrong with this guy that I don’t know about? He’s pitching 1.23/0.61 for the Romper Roomies and he’s dying of old age at 26. I mean, we screw up every other reliever we have by sending them to Nevada, why not Peterson? The only downside would be that he only has 13 appearances so far.

SS Luis Guillorme – let’s stay in New York State… eventually SS Amed Rosario is going to be promoted from Las Vegas to Queens. Guillorme will then fill that open slot with the 51’s. This also will allow JC Rodriguez to move from St. Lucie to Binghamton and give Cody Woodmansee more shortstop time in Florida.

SP Andrew Church – Some starter is going to have to move up soon from St. Lucie to Binghamton. Marcos Molina and Chris Flexen just returned to the Lucy rotation and there will be two gems (which we’ll talk about more later) heading there soon from Columbia. There’s been starters with better mid-season stats (9-starts, 3.81, 1.33), but he has pitched better since an ERA high of 5.10 on May 4th. We can slip nicely into Conlon’s open slot in Binghamton.

RP John Magliozzi – Magliozzi has earned a promotion into the open slot that will come open in the Binghamton pen when Peterson is promoted to Vegas. His stat line so far this season for St. Lucie is 16-appearances, 3-1, 2.77, 0.96, 26-IP, 21-K, 5-BB. Like Peterson, the only reason that could hold him back is the number of appearances so far, but the Vegas pen is failing and the best at each level needs to step up.

3B Jhoan Urena –  Here’s your first tough decision. It’s obvious that Urena has earned the promotion… 171-AB, .333/.386/.719. The 22-year old ex-prospect has been around for a while and has fought through injuries and slumps to get back on the horse. Now all he has to do is push David Thompson to the Binghamton bench while he once again becomes the favorite someday to replace David Wright on third in Queens.

C-1B Patrick Mazeika – You just can’t put a lasso on these Stetson boys, can you? Mazeika is making quite a name for himself in Florida, hitting .325 for St. Lucie. His 3-year pro totals are .328/.425/.485/.910, but his slugging percentage this season has gone from .402 to .532 and his OPS has risen from .816 to .937 (2016 Columbia to 2017 St. Lucie). The real interesting thing is his moving to first base after the injury to Peter Alonso. Where do you play him in Binghamton? First base and return Matt Oberste to a DH? Tomas Nido who has been hitting better lately? Nice problem.

SP Merandy Gonzalez – The 21-year old Gonzalez has been amazing: 8-GS, 6-1, 1.75, 0.84, 51.1-IP, 46-K, 9-BB. My guess is 10 starts will still be needed to move him along with his buddy in the next paragraph. Gonzales needs a couple more years to mature (keep him away from Vegas!!!) and we may just have a buddy back end starter here!

SP Jordan Humphreys – Gonzalez may be a buddy back end but Humphreys looks like a front-ender. His 8-start stats are spot on: 7-1, 1.57, 0.70, 51.2-IP, 65-K. I really believe in his guy. So much that I have moved him to the #2 position on my prospect list.


Sam Carlson

We’re 14 days away from the first round of the 2017 baseball draft and various mock pundits have been posting the name Sam Carlson as the player that the Mets will chose in the draft.

Carlson is a 6-4 Burnsville HS (MN) LHSP that will most probably not be picked by the 19 teams that will pick ahead of the Mets. His fastball sits 94-96 and was clocked recently at 99. Do you have any idea what a 99 mph fastball from a lefty looks like when you standing in the box?

His three-pitch repertoire includes a 75-curve and a chang-eup, but it’s the fastball that has attracted scouts to his Burnsville starts.

Keith Law has him as the 15th top prospect in the draft

Tuck his name away with the others I have given you. We may be writing more about him come June 12th.

Follow Up

           Hudson Belinsky‏ - @hudsonbelinsky  -  I'll take a few draft questions here now. Be warned: I will shamelessly plug @BaseballAmerica articles in responses.

Mack‏ - @JohnMackinAde - Hudson, how far do you think Seth Romero is going to fall?

Hudson Belinsky‏ - Biggest question mark in the first round. I think Romero will still be a high pick.  

11 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Carlson would be good to draft...but if there is another Aaron Judge out there, I'll take him! Sixteen homers and .321. And still May.

Tim Peterson's problem in terms of # of outings is two fold: rain outs and a killer pen.

I would like Luis Mateo promoted to AAA With Tim too. After a brief bad start to the season, he has been lights out in the Bingo pen.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

The 'other' Aaron Judge out there would be either Huntington Beach HS (CA) 1B Nick Pratto or Missouri State 3B Jake Burger.

As of yesterday, Burger has 67-G, 22-HR, 63-RBI, 223-at bats, only 32 strike outs

Thomas Brennan said...

Mack, I am a big fan of Burgers on Memorial Day.

I know we have been through a pitching melt down lately, but I think the ship is largely about to aright, with Lugo and Matz to return certainly 5 days from now, and Harvey, Jake, Wheeler and Gsellman all looking better, more like expectations.

Sewald has made us proud too. What a GREAT month for Paul.

Lots of excellent young pitchers that will be ready to help starting next year and in 2019. so if I can sign a REAL stud bat, I'd prefer that. Look at the joy Conforto brings.

Zozo said...

Hey Mack

Is that a picture of Carlson?
His velocity sounds amazing especially for a lefty.

But I am very intrigued about Romero, can they fix his attitude?

Thomas Brennan said...

Mets are last in baseball in ERA and WHIP. They will be much better than that going forward.

Offensively, they have sued in May, even without Cespedes. When he returns, watch out.

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -

Yes, the pic is Carlston.

I believe passing on Romero would be a big mistake. My guess all him problems were youth based and involved his relationship with teammates and his coach.

If we can have a head case like Cespedes, a wife slapper like Reyes, and a past starter PEDer like Colon, I think drafting Romero would be just fine.

Let's remember he was leading D1 baseball in Ks at the time of his suspension.

Of course, you would need some kind of backdoor assurance by him that he would sign and not go back to school at some CC to bump up his signing bonus someday.

Thomas Brennan said...

Urena has started 16 games and been in 20 games total at 1B this year with one error. 3b, in 33 games, 12 errors.

David Thompson has been on fire for the past few weeks, and only made 1 error at 3rd all year in over 40 games. I think before too long that Thompson will be the obvious 3rd base guy to ultimately replace Wright (if anyone currently in the system does ultimately get there).

Thomas Brennan said...

Mack and Zozo, I agree on Romero. Let me make a comparison.

I used to be a Brooklyn Nets fan until they destroyed the franchise with incredibly bad decisions.

One of those was drafting Derrick Favors over Demarcus Cousins. Cousins was viewed as a bad boy, and it has surfaced at some points. But in the past season, he averaged 24.5 points and 13 boards, Favors 9.5 points and 6 boards. They passed on Cousins mostly because he was a bad boy. BUT...Nice guys often finish last.

The Mets foolishly passed on Sheffield in 2004, after 39 homers and 132 RBIs for the Braves in 2003, because he was a bad boy. The Yanks smartly signed him His first 2 Yanks seasons, he hit 70 homers and plated 244 guys. Sometimes "bad" is darned good.

If the opportunity presents itself, do your homework and draft the bad boy.

Eddie Corona said...

Yeah remember that last time the met won '86 the whole team was filled with bad guys...
I don't need them all to be choir boys

Thomas Brennan said...

Eddie, very true

Zozo said...

I think he's a righty though not a lefty?

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