Erica Lay - The Need For Speed

There’s a lot of talk about velocity – commonly referred to as VELO – in modern baseball. But unless we’re talking about exit velocity or pitch velocity, there doesn’t seem to be much focus on speed. By speed, I mean how fast a specific player can run. I find this ironic since speed is one of the five-tools commonly used to evaluate players.

So, the question is – does speed really provide an advantage? 

I think it does. Here are some of the ways speed can impact a game:

Stolen bases. The ability to get a runner into scoring position without sacrificing an out is the most obvious use of speed.

Extra bases. Being able to score from first on a double; stretching a double into a triple. These things create tangible results.

Defense. Having speed on defense is an asset – especially in the outfield.

Disruption. Having a pitcher split their concentration between a runner and the batter makes them more prone to mistakes. It can also impact pitch selection causing a batter to see more fastballs.

Defensive alignment. Holding runners on creates holes in the infield defense. And, in some cases, may prevent the use of the shift.

Despite all these benefits, stolen bases have declined in recent years and players with legitimate speed seem less inclined to steal bases. 

Maybe that’s because, in the grand scheme of things, stats tell us that speed doesn’t really win games. According to StatCast, the two fastest teams in the major leagues in 2017 were the Padres and Marlins, respectively. The Padres finished fourth in their division with a 71-91 record. The Marlins finished 77-85, good for second place in the putrid NL East.

Now, while I agree that speed alone may not win games, I do believe that speed can help a team capitalize on situations and take advantage of a team’s other assets. A team that uses speed effectively can score more efficiently than a team stuck playing station-to-station and doesn’t need to be solely dependent on the long ball. And we’ve all heard the old adage that speed doesn’t slump.

How does this relate to the Mets? It doesn’t. And that’s the point. With the exceptions of Nimmo, Rosario and Conforto, this team is old, slow and painful to watch. (For the record, I love Wilmer Flores and am willing to deal with his lumbering around the bases because, ultimately, the dude can hit - and has proven he can hit in the clutch - and is still only 26 years old, even though it feels like he’s been around forever).

Having a run score from first on a double when there are two outs is a big deal. Having a runner at third instead of second is the difference between needing a fly ball vs. a hit to tie a game. They may not sound like make or break moments but, in the flow of a game, they can be. Especially at a time when strikeouts could reach an all-time high.

With the offensive malaise that the Mets are currently mired in, it sure would be great to have a lineup featuring some high OBP guys that could swipe a bag or two to help the cause. Of course, we’d also need someone who could then drive the run in and that’s a tall order with our current roster.

In a game more and more focused on power stats, speed related skills are no longer taught and nurtured in the minor leagues (or the major leagues, for that matter). Personally, I’m hoping speed makes a comeback. Because despite the record of the Padres and Marlins, I believe speed ultimately helps win games. It also makes the game more exciting and watchable. I miss the days of Lenny and Wally, when a walk or a single was basically as good as a double. I hope the next iteration of this team includes a few more Brandon Nimmos and a few less Adrian Gonzalezes (at least the version of Gonzalez that was on the 2018 Mets).