6/24/18

Mike Freire - Playoffs?

7 comments

Boy, most Mets' fans are on the edge of being bipolar, aren't they?

A few days ago, the team couldn't score and they sunk to a full ten games below
.500 after a painful loss to the Diamondbacks.  There were articles documenting
that the Mets were the quickest team to go from ten games over .500 to ten games
under .500 in the modern era.  So, we are the best at something?

A few days later, the team has put together a modest winning streak, which included
a couple of exciting wins and an absolute deluge of runs on Monday night, albeit in
Coors Field.  Now, folks are starting to murmur about a "run to a Wild Card" and the
chants have changed from "rebuild" to "stay the course, we can do it".

I will admit that it is much more fun to follow the team and to write articles when
they are winning ballgames.  I also want to "pump the brakes" a little bit, because
I am fearful that a dose of success COULD keep the team from doing what is necessary to properly right the ship for the future (i.e. not necessarily a total tear down, but some level of rebuilding which includes dealing SOME assets, etc).

As of Tuesday (06/19/18), the Mets are 31-38 and still sit 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves, so that is still the longest of long shots (plus there are two other teams between them in the form of the resurgent Phillies and the recently scuffling Nationals). 

Looking at the Wild Card standings, the Mets are 9.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers (first Wild Card) and 6.5 games behind the aforementioned Phillies and Nationals, who are tied for the second Wild Card.  That doesn't even include six additional teams that are between the Mets and the Wild Card leaders who would need to be passed in the standings at some point.  The 6.5 game deficit is the same distance that the team is from being the WORST team in the NL, so they are as close to that low bar as they are to potentially playing in October.  In short, the Mets have dug themselves quite a hole.

But, for grins, what would it take to get into that conversation?

The Phillies and Nationals (tied for the second Wild Card) are both on pace to finish with a record of 88-74, based on their current winning percentage.  The Mets have a total of 93 games left this season, so there is still time to get hot and make up some ground. 

But, in order to get to 88 wins, the team would need to win 57 more games this season!  In other words, they would need to go 57-36 down the stretch to reach the necessary win total while simultaneously passing a large group of teams in the process.  That works out to a winning percentage of .613 or a "100 win pace"
over the course of a full season.

Do you see this team playing that well between now and the end of September?

I am not rooting for failure, but the point of this piece is to not lose sight of what needs to be done in order for the team to consistently challenge for the playoffs.  A few wins in a row shouldn't change the team's overall course of action.





7 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Today, we don't have a starter.

Yes, that's right... a professional major league baseball team has a game on Sunday and the manager says he will wait until everyone arrives and ask how they are feeling before naming a starter.

What do you think the odds makers in Vegas are doing right now after ready the article this morning by my friend, Kevin Kernan?

And this is the team we chose to root for and write about.

Winter is coming.

Thomas Brennan said...

They should have kept Robles a few more days and let him throw 100 pitches or ten homers, whichever came first.

I am going to a family HS ahead party today. My younger brother will unleash incentives at this team. Believe me. He is the opposite of Mellow Mickey.

Thomas Brennan said...

Not incentives, invectives.

Reese Kaplan said...

It's not invectives they need, it's injections, rejections, dejections and everything else Arlo Guthrie once said about the draft board in Alice's Restaurant.

Thomas Brennan said...

Marcos Molina for Miguel Andujar - seems even to me.

After all, who wouldn't want a pitcher who is 1-9 and allowing 8 runs per 9 innings?

Anonymous said...

Everyone is thinking Mets trades lately, the past three weeks...

But the Mets actually do have more young talent not yet up here. Like Alonso, McNeil, six AA relievers who all throw very hard, Drew Smith is already here as is Tim Peterson, and the Mets have reliever Callahan out hurt currently, but he's on youtube if you want to see him while still pitching and healthy. He looks awesome. So yes there is adequate depth. However, maybe one true star more from outside would not hurt here. My guess? Maybe Machado.

MLB Criticism/Homeplate

I don't know any baseball fan anywhere that likes the strikes and balls calling by the home plate MLB umpires overall this season. The strikezone "used to be" letters to knees on the batter. What happened to that? Now it is all over the place, depending on what the homeplate umpire had for dinner the night before. i.e.: If fish, then the strikezone is ankles to belt buckle. If pasta, then the strikezone is mid-shin bone to two inches below the armpits. Maybe it's time to go to computer sensor readings, or even a robot who looks like the late Rodney Dangerfield will do, because what we have here now is not getting it in the consistency department but needs to very soon.

I loved the Wilmer Flores game winning basehit last night. It went right thru the third base umpire's legs somehow, while he was in motion trying to get out of the way. Amazing.

Stick around, this New Era of Mets Baseball is happening now and it will be a good thing.

Anonymous said...

The Mets fans dilemma

The fans historically want to just win. Does not matter how or with what young or old team the Mets field, just win. Not me. I have to be a contrarian. Of course I would love to win a WS again. However, I am much more in favor of building a young dynasty NY Mets team, a team that could win multiple WS rings, than be a winner one time like the 1986 NY Mets were. Now that was a dynasty team! But can the fans wait for the younger players to fully maturate is the question. I guess it all comes down to knowing your team is on the right course despite any and all opposing baseball fans and critics opinions raining down from every which way and clogging up the television sports shows with their unabashed viewpoints. Maybe they have never sat patiently waiting for much in their own lives. Who knows. Maybe they cannot.

This notion of "dynasty building" is not new to MLB. The old time Tommy Lasorda Dodgers used to build their teams each season with this in mind, as did the 1990's Atlanta Braves. Both teams followed a season by season strategy replacing the old with the new, one by one.

The 2000's Yankees were an exception to this rule of constantly getting stronger by getting younger each season. They fell in love with their players and when they almost all got older those older players stayed on as Yankees and started, which says something about the NY Yankees loyalty to its players. But then one day, their Yankee team got old, very old. Several seasons post Jeter and Mariano, this new NY Yankees team we see today is back on course to the WS and strong as all get out. All that is really left in 2018 for them is getting by Houston and Boston. They have everything that they will need now, the big bats, great pitching, a solid manager, and the sensational Gleyber Torres on second base, their next true Captain a la Derek Jeter.

Hopefully, the NY Mets can learn from these teams I have just mentioned above and build something great here in Flushing, a dynasty. I think they can. Patience still advised.

Mack's Mets © 2012