6/22/18

Q and A - What To Do On July 1st

2 comments

David Rubin asks –

Q- Mets fans - if, on July 1st, the team remains far away from a Wild Card and Division Title, do you:

a.) Trade DeGrom for a large package, including the Yankees in the discussion (think Torres & Sheffield, for starters)?

b.) Trade Syndergaard for a large package, including the Yankees in the discussion?

c.) Trade either DeGrom or Syndergaard to anyone BUT the Yankees?

d.) Trade BOTH DeGrom and Syndergaard and blow it all up?

e.) Trade everyone on the major league roster that has any value, other than Nimmo & Conforto and make this a total rebuild?

f.) Do Nothing radical, let the season finish, and get prepared for the Wilponzi's to tell us they are big spenders as Wright's $15 mil is paid by insurance and our real payroll is between 17th and 20th in the game?

g.) Other- tell us what YOU would do!!!

Jack Flynn says - 


   You do not trade de Grom for any reason. 

   You can entertain offers for Syndergaard, but it is extremely unlikely a team will be willing to match his value. The underwhelming return for Kelvim Herrera is yet another indication that prospects, if anything, are overvalued at this point. There are no other untouchable pitchers on the Mets' roster. The only untouchable position players should be Conforto, Nimmo and Rosario.

Michael Maar says –

Probably the safest course for the Mets to take at this point would be to trade deGrom, assuming a huge haul in return.  Major-league ready talent is a must, with at least 2 or 3 top-50 prospects.  I would include the Yankees in that, but the price is much higher for them.  Yes, I'd want Torres in the deal, plus Frazier.  I'd consider other packages from them excluding Torres, but then the numbers would be on the order of 4 top prospects.

However, I'm letting my heart win out on this, and am saying keep deGrom and Thor.  I think Jake has some staying power as a top SP into his mid 30's, and he'll still be good when the Mets make another run.  Here's where my head's at right now..

- Conforto, Nimmo and Rosario are the core position players and are untouchable at this point.  All other position players are in play for smaller deals that restock the system.

 - Trade Familia to a contender at the deadline, looking for a single top prospect, preferably a Catcher or 3B in return.  We can look at the closer market in the offseason, with Familia as a possibility as a FA.  We can also consider moving on with Gsellman as the closer.

 - Listen to offers for one of either Wheeler, Matz or Lugo at the deadline.  The return would need to be pretty good and MLB ready - again looking for talent at C, 3B and possibly 2B.  If they can fill a need at a starting position with a MLB-ready young player, I'd consider dealing one of these arms.

 - Pray that Bruce has a mini-resurgence to allow him to be traded at the deadline.  Just clear as much of the contract a possible.  Going forward, Conforto and Nimmo need to be locks for everyday starting OF jobs.  Unfortunately, Cespedes owns a lock on LF (if he ever plays) for the next 2 years.


 - Offseason.. pipe dream, but they need to stop spending millions by spreading it around to a bunch of mediocre players, and go hard after Manny Machado.  If they were to land him, a rebound to contention could be as close as next year, assuming progress on some of the other moves mentioned above.  Frazier's here one more year and can either play fill-in at 1B/3B/LF.  If Machado insists on playing SS, then let him and move Rosario to 3B.

Reese says –

e.  When something doesn't work, you try something else.  All of the years on building around pitching with nothing but home run hitters has resulted in two positives and six negatives.  I think that's clearly long enough to say it's time to explore a different approach.  In the case of deGrom you're at the ultimate "sell high" period of his career -- still young enough to be considered HIGHLY atttactive to 29 other teams yet you stand to lose him in a couple of years anyway since the Wilpons won't give him a Johan Santana type of contract.  It's better to cash that chip now that lose it for the next Kevin Plawecki in compensation.

In terms of Noah Syndergaard, yes he is much younger and set to be with the organization longer.  However, he has demonstrated some health and character issues that suggest he could be a headache moving forward.  In his case you need him back and pitching like he's capable of doing before you can begin to entertain fair value for him. 

Let's say each nets you 3 prospects (total of 6), 4 of whom had better work out.  So, in effect, you've given up 2 to gain 4.  You have to do that.  As it stands right now the Mets have no long term answer at 2B or 3B, Amed Rosario is a work in progress, no catcher, no health reliability in Yoenis Cespedes and the poster child for the all-or-nothing over-30 veteran in Jay Bruce. 

Mike Friere says - 

         I think the team is out of contention now and I don't need to wait to start the "rebuild", but I have been accused of being a bit impetuous in the past.  With that said, here are my responses:


a.  It depends on the return, but I would not consider anyone on the current roster as untouchable, including Jake.  It would hurt dealing him across town, but if the return were good enough, I would do it.

b, c and d.  Dealing both Jake and Noah would be hard, but again, doable if the return were high enough.  My gut tells me that Noah would bring the bigger return due to his age and years of control but I don't see Sandy dealing both of them to the Yankees, nor do I see Brian Cashman giving up what it would take to get both.  They may go in separate deals to different teams, but I think one gets dealt and one stays put (probably the one more amenable to an extension).

e.  As stated in the first item, the team is NOT a contender so steps should be taken to get back to that point.  Deal anything of value in the short term for pieces that will be there when you are ready to compete again (2020, 2021 range).

f.  Sadly, what will likely happen.....the real change needed is in the owner's booth.

g.  Total "do over"......new owners, new upper level management and a commitment to building a winner.  I can tolerate a few years of losing if it means we will be stronger at the other end (fingers crossed).

Erica says –

           Good pitching is hard to find. And finding a true ace is almost impossible (especially if your owners are not willing to put up significant cash). We have one ace (deGrom) and a close second (Syndergaard). These are guys that will be incredibly difficult to replace.

Based on runs scored, our offense ranked 17th in 2015 and we made it to the World Series. For reference, our offense ranked 18th in 2017 and we were abysmal. The difference between these two years was the strength of our pitching.

I’d be open to trading either or both, but ONLY if we received a truly franchise changing package back. I don’t care who that package comes from. If the best return was from the Yankees, that’d be fine by me. But I wouldn’t trade either of these guys (especially Jake) for anything less than an organization’s top 3 prospects with 2 additional impact prospects included for good measure. Jake is under team control for two years after 2018 and Noah is under team control for three additional years. The return would have to be astronomical for me to part with either. And I’m not sure that’s very likely.

Tom says –

        a) I would be OK with Jake to the Yanks - but I want Torres + more ...the Yanks fans don't like to lose their treasures, and they now treasure Gleyber Torres, so I don't see it.  I don't want less for Jake.


b) ditto on Syndergaard, although right now, I do not think the Yanks would consider Torres for him at all

c) best package for either Jake or Thor - any package must elicit a GREAT! WOW from Mets fans, or forget it.

d) Only if the hauls are enormous would I trade both Jake and Thor - the Mets, as Texas Gus indicated the other day, inspire very little confidence in an ability to execute a total rebuild like Atlanta, Houston, and the Yanks have

e) Nimmo has done very well and deserves to stay, but is not untouchable and has real value, perhaps more than his real long term value should be.  Conforto's value has to be down and thus is not worth trading "low".  Everyone else?  Great deals and we'll listen.

f) I look forward to David Wright pinch hitting and retiring - this organization has to figure out how to draft and sign Internationals better, or it will always be behind the 8-ball

g) Call up Tim Tebow in September, ready or not!

Mack

           You all know I want to blow this up, but an alternative version of G would be:

Sign BOTH Syndergaard and deGrom through the 2023 season. This would give the Mets the best of what they can offer in the future plus give them ample time to build a new rotation.

                       Lugo and Matz would be my SP3 and SP4. Oswalt my SP5.

                       My bullpen would be Bashlor, Gsellman, Peterson, Sewald, Swarsak, Bautista, and Drew Smith.

                       My infield would be Alonso, McNeil, Rosario and Flores, with Guillorme and Christian Colon as my backups.

                       My catchers would be Plawecki and Nido.

                       My outfield would be Conforto, Nimmo, and Cespedes, with RF/1B Dom Smith and Kaczmarski as my backups.

           I really don’t care about the rest of the guys on the 40-man. And I have no faith in Sandy trading any of them for anyone decent. The more money I can clear off the payroll is the more money I will have for the one ‘chip’ I need to continue my three year rebuild.

                       Sign 3B Manny Machado to a 5-6 year deal and a new catcher. 

           Lastly, do not send any chips from Binghamton to the cesspool we call Las Vegas, 

         Let Crismatt, Dunn, Bashlor, Ryan, Roseboom, Blackham, Uceta, and Mazieka stay in upstate New York. Eventually, have Gimenez, Dimino, Zanghi, Atkins, Pobereyko, Gonzalez, and Peterson join them if and when they are ready. Build for an invasion of both Queens and Syracuse in 2019

2 comments:

Eddie Corona said...

How did I miss this one...

I am a little torn... I would trade anyone on this roster for a great haul... Thor, Conforto, Rosario etc...
Jake is the only hesitation. One the one hand he is the face of the organization. Our only true star. on the other he would and should return the most value...
If I believe we have a shot at a new nucleus with Peterson, Dunn and others on the rise. But they would not lead like say Harvey did when he came up so I believe Degrom should be around to lead and usher their assent.

Thomas Brennan said...

Eddie, I am not at all confident Peterson, Dunn, Crismatt anywhere near Jake long term. They could easily become the next Matz and Wheeler...average MLB starters.

Jake = Seaver. Weavers are very rare.


Mack, Plawecki, Nido, Guillorme and Colon collectively is way too much non-hitting for me. Short term, to get a high draft slot, OK. Otherwise,it is non-competitive.

Erica states an important point: 2017 and 2018 pitching has been bad to weak. You better be real confident that pitchers in your system are tomorrow's WINNERS, ability-wise...or it could get REALLY ugly in Queens.

Mack's Mets © 2012