During the years 2016 and 2017 I wrote about Brandon Nimmo and questioned whether or not he would, by age 24, become a middle-of-the-order threat. Many scoffed at the time, but I dredged up some of that content to see if maybe for once I wasn't completely crazy:
A lot of people are
wondering what will become of him (Nimmo) as he continues to mature and adjust given
his limited baseball experience. The comp I once offered up is the Marlins’ Christian
Yelich. He too took some time to adjust to the majors with solid batting
averages but limited power during his first three seasons. He began his
career at age 21 and over those initial three seasons he hit as high as .300,
but never tallied double digits in HRs and didn’t exceed 54 RBIs. He has
a bit more speed and delivers a .368 OBP.
At age 24, however, it
all came together for Yelich and he rewarded the Marlins faith by providing a
season of .298/21/98. Will Nimmo ever be this good? It’s too soon
to tell, but the stories are similar about late bloomers who parlayed selective
hitting and good at-bats into solid numbers and eventually growing into their
power. I list him as on-the-bubble for the upcoming season, but
there’s no reason he can’t take over the Alejandro De Aza role at less than 10%
of his cost.
As a minor leaguer he
didn’t really seem to put it all together until an extended run in AAA in 2016
when he finished with a .352/11/62 output with an impressive .423 OBP and an
OPS of .964 in just under 400 ABs. If you factor in the PCL effect on
hitters and pitchers then you have to scale back those expectations a bit.
Fast forward to 2017 in
the majors and he held his own. He had a multi-homer game (which was
surprising since power is not one of his great attributes), and continued to
get on base at an impressive clip. What is concerning, however, is a
dramatic jump in strikeouts – 60 in just 177 ABs. That’s a Nieuwenhuisian
pace.
So what do the Mets really
have here with Nimmo? Assuming he relaxes a bit and plays to his
selectivity a bit better, what can they realistically expect? Remember
that he did not play organized high school baseball in Wyoming, so his
development is a bit delayed. Consequently, it’s possible he will become
something of a late bloomer.
If you extrapolate the
numbers he should be on pace (with some slight improvement) towards
.280/15/70. Another young outfielder whose parallel I drew a year or so
ago started off his first full time season with a .280/9/54 and followed that
up with a sophomore campaign of .300/7/44. In his third season he
made a quantum leap to deliver .298/21/98 which resulted in a buyout of his
next few years. He rewarded his team with a fourth full year of
.282/18/81, down a bit but still showing that the 3rd year was
far from a fluke. So is Brandon Nimmo a Christian Yelich type or is he
merely going to be a 4th outfielder/fringe starter?
Some early scouting reports were guardedly optimistic. SBnation said:
“Those long limbs and the prospect of filling out that frame could mean that power is on its way. He should be able to leverage the ball for power to all fields, and when he extends completely, he has substantial power to the opposite field. This will especially be true once he gets his swing working well. Right now, Nimmo has the skeleton of a very good swing. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination that allows him to square up well on the ball, and the barrel of his bat spends a long time in the strike zone. He's very short to the ball and has a high finish, but he's overly reliant on his hands—which are very strong—to push the ball where he wants it to go. He'll usually rotate his hips, but he has a tendency to do so too early, before he's even balanced his weight properly. A strong rotational swing will have the arms, hips, and legs all working in concert. Nimmo has the parts working, for the most part, but it will take time to get them to work together. Until that happens, and until he actually adds the muscle we anticipate, the power will remain a projection and nothing more.”
Baseball Digest was similarly cautious in praising the
young outfielder:
“Nimmo has plus hitting potential, but being as his experience is limited, as is the video, it’s difficult, if not impossible to label him. Pro scouts are positive about his hit tool, with some saying his “polish with the bat” to be almost as impressive as his speed. During his MVP performance last summer in the Under Armour game, he doubled down the left field line and singled through shortstop for his two hits, so he’s not afraid to use the opposite field and is comfortable with his hitting style and approach.
While not quite as difficult to project as the overall hit tool because not everyone HAS power, it still can be a tricky one to figure out at times. It is also the one tool which causes the most disagreement among scouts...Where does Nimmo profile power wise? It’s impossible to say, although no one thought Ike Davis would be a 20 homer guy when he was drafted either, and that’s including playing half the time in Citi Field.”
The good news with the Mets collective inertia based upon philosophy, payroll and injuries is that all signs point toward Nimmo having the opportunity to play every day and let the Mets know what they really have.
“Nimmo has plus hitting potential, but being as his experience is limited, as is the video, it’s difficult, if not impossible to label him. Pro scouts are positive about his hit tool, with some saying his “polish with the bat” to be almost as impressive as his speed. During his MVP performance last summer in the Under Armour game, he doubled down the left field line and singled through shortstop for his two hits, so he’s not afraid to use the opposite field and is comfortable with his hitting style and approach.
While not quite as difficult to project as the overall hit tool because not everyone HAS power, it still can be a tricky one to figure out at times. It is also the one tool which causes the most disagreement among scouts...Where does Nimmo profile power wise? It’s impossible to say, although no one thought Ike Davis would be a 20 homer guy when he was drafted either, and that’s including playing half the time in Citi Field.”
The good news with the Mets collective inertia based upon philosophy, payroll and injuries is that all signs point toward Nimmo having the opportunity to play every day and let the Mets know what they really have.
Hmmn...maybe I did nail this one after all.
6 comments:
Resse, now we all have to consider:
Can Nimmo be a star?
And can perhaps Nimmo become one of their best ever outfielders?
I think the best ever outfielders is Mike Trout.
IF he continues to develop, he is my left fielder for the next few years.
I would trade Yo in a heartbeat, if I could.
Add in a healthy and productive Conforto and you have left and right field covered
in the coming sesasons.
What is it Nimmo Day?
I believe? Didn't Greg Jefferies have a great stretch too? Flores show signs of a great stretch?
Not ready to say "Maybe we were all wrong"... And I would love to eat crow...
Flores has had great stretches and customarily got benched by the dunce in charge after them...including a six-hit day. Who here doesn't think Flores could have produced more than Adrian Gonzalez if he played every day?
Flores needs to play more - Dominic Smith, beware - but Nimmo is not a one season fluke - Brandon did quite nicely last year too. I don't expect Nimmo to remain at top 4 in baseball in slugging %, but perhaps an on base % close to .400 and a slug % close to .500 for the rest of the season? Maybe. That would make for one TERRIFIC season.
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