Mike Freire - Status Check (So Far)

Status Check 

Good Morning, Mets' fans!  Now that we are officially in the month of May, it is time for a status check on our favorite ball club. 

As of Wednesday morning (05/01/19), the Mets have a 15-14 record and they currently sit in second place, one full game behind the Phillies in the National League East.  That's not too shabby, right?

Well.....maybe not.

As an "amateur" statistician, I try not to overreact to statistical trends, whether they are positive or negative.  Especially when trends are deemed to be a "small sample size".  

However, with 29 games played to date, the season is approaching the 20% mark which is no longer a small sample size, in my humble opinion.  In other words, the statistical trends that the team has set are likely to be what we can expect moving forward into the Summer months.

With that said, let's take a quick look under the hood, if you will.

1. The listed record has been compiled with 16 games on the road (9-7) and 13 games at home (6-7), so it has been a challenging start to the year, schedule wise.  I am pleased with their road performance (anything over .500 baseball on the road is a good thing).  BUT, they are not playing well at home, which is a disturbing and continuing trend from the past few years.

2.  The Mets are averaging 5.14 runs per game in 2019, which is good enough for 9th in all of MLB.  It is also nearly a full run MORE then they averaged last season (4.17) when they finished near the bottom of the league, so 2019's offensive output has been excellent.

3. The Mets are, however, surrendering an average of 5.79 runs per game, which is "good" enough for 28th in all of MLB (only ahead of the Mariners and the Orioles).  That is almost 1.5 runs per game MORE then the 2018 version of the team who only surrendered 4.36 runs per game, which is NOT excellent.

4.  The team's overall run differential to date is -19 runs, or in other words, they are getting outscored by 0.65 runs per game (despite their record).  Actually, if you used the Expected Win Formula, the team should have a record of 13-16 based on that performance, so they are actually outperforming their statistics, to date.

5. The 2018 version of the Mets had a season long run differential of -31, which translated to a record of 77-85.  In other words, last year's team got outscored by an average of 0.19 per game and finished 8 games under .500.  As previously stated, this year's team is getting outscored by almost three times that amount!

Look, I hate to sound so negative, but the facts are the facts and it is getting harder to ignore the 800 pound gorilla in the room (i.e. the pitching staff).  

Clearly, the offensive production is up almost 25% over last year, so that is wonderful.  Pair that with what our pitching staff was SUPPOSED to be this year and you would likely have a team that was well in front of everyone else in the division.

Instead, you have a TON of questions about the team's supposed strength and IF things don't turn themselves around, you have a team that cannot continue to produce a winning record on the field. 

Yeah, I know, enough complaining already.

So, in an effort to come up with a solution (instead of mindless complaining), how do the Mets go about fixing their problems on the mound?