5/12/19

Mack – The Need for “Controlled Speed”



Good morning.


We talked earlier about the need for outfield depth in the pipeline.

I believe there is enough minor league infield talent in both the pipeline and the parent team to insure a healthy return.

I can’t say the same thing for starters.

Once again, we go into a season thinking our rotation is strong, that we have ample SP6 candidates at the AAA level, and we have a ton of ‘red’ prospects in the chain. Then the season starts.

The obvious was the poor start by our big three, but the addition of some ‘red’ prospect busts in the chain only has maximized the need to bring in some new stud blood into the chain.

Right now, I have only one starter and two relievers that could make an impact in 2020. All three are pitching in AA-Binghamton.

RHSP Anthony Kay is giving us everything we can ask for him at this stage of his development. We had to wait a year when he had to sit out with a bum wing, and his 23-starts, 4.26 in 2018 (St. Lucie, Columbia) could be considered as his rehab year, but he has it all going for him this season where he is 6-starts, 1.52, 0.98.

As for the relievers, 23-yr. old RHP Stephen Villines is just pitching nuclear since being drafted in the 10th round and graduating at Kansas in 2017. He went 0.41 for St. Lucie last season in 16-appearances and so far this year for the B-Mets, he pitching 0.00.

The other relieve is ex-Clemson closer, Ryley Gilliam. The Mets have really fast-tracked Ry which has caused a few bumps along the way (a good friend of the site and ex-writer here, Ernest Dove Jr., told me the other day when we were discussing the lack of production so far this year out of our prospects ”what would you rather have? Sexy stats in Brooklyn?”) Ernest is right, we have to move these prime choice kids up the chain and if it takes a rough outing or two, so be it.

So, how does drafting a starter in the first round of the 2019 draft help us now?

Well, it doesn’t, but what once looked like a shite-load of ‘red’ prospect starters in the chain, has now turned into a severe problem down the road.

Past Kay, our next top prospects would be a struggling Simeon Woods-Richardson in Columbia, and another Firefly, Willy Tavares, who has been used mostly as a back-end piggyback starter.

What happened to David Peterson? Well, a lot of us are asking that.

Thomas Szapucki (4-G, 5-IP, 1.69, a sub-par 1.50-WHIP) is slowly being nurse back to the Columbia rotation, but he’s 23 already and needs to jump on the train. Jordan Humphreys has still not come back from TJS.

Anybody in Extended Camp? Maybe Junior Santos.

This isn’t enough folks. It’s Kay and a mash unit. We need a couple more stud starters to develop. Maybe one internationally and another from this draft and there is a great chance that not one single starter will be picked before our pick comes around.

This draft is considered pitcher-weak which could just fall our way with one of the top three red chip starters in this draft.


They are all lefties.

          Zack Thompson – Kentucky

3rd Man In - Thompson is a 6-foot-3, 225-pound hurler who has a four-pitch mix, featuring a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. His fastball sits in the low-90s while occasionally touching 96 mph.

His slider is his best secondary pitch. It sits in the low-80s and generates a high spin rate. His curveball features more depth than power, while his changeup is a respectable offering.
He has a clean delivery and throws from a high three-quarter arm slot.

2019 stats:  12-starts, 5-1, 2.08, 1.03, 78-IP, 113-K




          Hunter Barco     -  The Bolles School (FL)

PG - Hunter Barco is a 2019 LHP/1B with a 6-4 208 lb. frame from Jacksonville, FL who attends The Bolles HS. Square shouldered tall and very projectable athletic build. Mid to low 3/4's arm slot, significantly lower slot than last October, lands open with his front side, works quickly and attacks hitters. Steady low 80's fastball, pretty much sat at 91 mph, 
outstanding late running and sinking life to all quadrants, can back door a fastball glove side intentionally, throws to spots and likes to come inside to right handed hitters. Change up has the same type of life and is a quality pitch. Slider has a short cutter-like break, not able to get over it as well as from a higher release slot. Left handed hitter with a smooth and easy swing, drifts into contact, looking to drive the ball in the air. Smooth defensive player at first base.





          Nick Lodolo   -  TCU

Lone Star Ball - Nick Lodolo is a 6’6” lefthanded pitcher who is in his junior season at Texas Christian University, and is listed at anywhere from 180 to 195 lbs. Lodolo was drafted #41 overall in the 2016 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of Damien High School in La Verne, California, but didn’t sign. He has a low- to mid-90s fastball, a good changeup, and a breaking ball I’ve seen described as either a slider or a curve, depending on the source. He’s got the type of three-pitch mix that profiles in the rotation, but the reports indicate there’s concern that he’s been hit harder than his stuff would suggest he should be hit.

2019 stats:  12-starts, 6-4, 2.34, 0.99, 77-IP, 89-K



7 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

The higher the velocity, the better f i e any draftees. If it ain't high 90s, it gets off her quickly.

Besides that thin slate of candidates, I still am high on Tony Dibrell, a/k/a Tony Dibs. Get him to AA fast and see wazzup.

Szapucki another 2 very nice innings. Innings cap year, but starting to look good.

I also have increasing hopes for the Fireflies' Dedniel. Lots of Ks. Few walks.

holmer said...

From a scout's perspective a lefty can get away with low 90's fastballs whereas a righty needs to light up the gun to be a first round pick. having never seen Dibrell I can only go by what I've heard and the reports are intriguing. I do want a college pitcher because, as Mack said, the pickings at the tiger end of the system are thin. We'd have to wait 3 or 4 years to see the fruits of a high school pitcher.

Tom Brennan said...

Looking at David Peterson, it takes 3 or 4 years for Mets college pitchers, too.

Mack Ade said...

Holmer/Tom

We have consistenly gone for the big RHSP early in the draft and three of our recent first rounders fall in this category... Peterson, Anthony Kay, and Justin Dunn.

They average around 3 years older than high school seniors and 5 years older than the International kids.

College juniors usually can move up the chain quicker, but not if you draft a guy (Dunn) and then preform TJS on him.

Peterson has beena disappointment so far, but he can still correct taht.

And Dunn? Big loss.

I want to move to a big time college lefty this time.

Mack Ade said...

Let me continue...

Every team HAS to have 6 ++ starters on opening day to pull a season off.

There is nothing you can do about pitcher's arms needing some short term rehab. I simply love the 10 day IL. Go out of the 25-man, come right back.

But... you need an adequate fill in pitching AAA ball to pull this off.

Peterson, Kay, and Dunn was making me feel that we would reach this depth level by the beginning of the 2020 season, but maybe even surpass it.

Lastly, we don't operate like other teams. We don't go out and pay the big bucks for the best out there when one of our wings go limp.

Frankly, right now, NO team is doing that for either pitcher still out there (both last names start with a K)

Tom Brennan said...

Hear you, Mack.

I just wonder if we need a lefty - we have Kay (looks can't miss); Peterson (if he becomes what they expected him to); and Szapucki (if he does progress).

Meanwhile, Jake is here, but will Zack and Thor still be in 2 years? Both are righties - a replacement righty might make more sense.

I like Dibs, but want to see that righty in AA before getting too excited. After that....righteous righties are rare indeed. I still think Richardson will be big, but not before 2021 or 2022.

Mack Ade said...

I understand what u r sayin about lefties but I am talking about the June draft.

The projected talent for LHSP is far greater than RHSP