5/31/19

Reese Kaplan -- A Modest Pitching Solution Proposal



An interesting though not new debate opened up recently regarding how to address the Mets’ pitching woes.  Everyone is well aware of the two big name pitchers still on the open market – lefty starter Dallas Keuchel and righty reliever Craig Kimbrel.  With the draft rapidly approaching on the week of June 3rd you could expect finally to see movement on these two start players once the issue of minor league compensation is off the table if you sign them. 


On the surface, Kimbrel is the better of the two pitchers.  The 31 year old has been in the majors for 9 years and over the course of his career his ERA is an eye popping 1.91.  He led the league in saves for 4 consecutive years between 2011 and 2014.  His first year in Boston was his single blip on his radar when his ERA ballooned to 3.40 and he only saved 31 games, but he rebounded to save 35 and then 42 games last year (which might have led the league most seasons if not for some guy in Seattle named Diaz…)  He strikes out on average 14.5 per 9 IP and has a WHIP of 0.920 for his career!  (In case you were wondering, those number handily beat Mariano somebody or other and he’s on pace to overtake him in saves).  He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory for sure.


Dallas Keuchel had that one stellar Cy Young Award-winning season when he won 20 games, sported a 2.48 ERA and made the first of two All Star Game appearances.  He has also won 5 Gold Gloves.  His pitching since then has been good but not great.  He had a 14-5 2.90 season for the Astros but that was sandwiched between a 9-12/4.55 ERA campaign and a 12-11/3.74 end to his Astros career last year.  For his career he’s a 3.66 ERA pitcher.  To give you a frame of reference, Steven Matz is pitching to a 3.63 ERA this year. 

Salary, of course, always is the sticking point in negotiations, though post-season probability, tax basis and location all factor in as well.  We know, for example, that the Mets were saved the embarrassment of not making a competitive offer for Shoei Ohtani when he indicated he wanted to be on the west coast exclusively.   Mike Hampton infamously chose the pitcher’s hell of Colorado allegedly for its superior school system for his children. 


Ending his last contract, the Red Sox were paying Kimbrel a salary of $13 million as part of a 3 year/$37.5 million deal he signed after leaving the Padres at the end of 2015.  Wade Davis and Aroldis Chapman have eclipsed the $17 million mark on multi-year deals already, and Kenly Jansen never having been a free agent is close behind at $16 million.  Figure Kimbrel will look to become the first $20 million reliever.  If he looks for say a 4-year deal, that could be about $80 million.  It would be pro-rated for 2019 since 1/3 of the season is gone already. 


Now the starting pitching market is even crazier than the one for relievers.  Keuchel ended his tenure with the Astros at a $13.5 million salary.  The comps in BaseballReference.com for similarity to other pitchers have him from Mat Latos to Jon Niese (in their top 10 pitchers performing at the same level).  That’s not exactly elite company.  He’s not in the Patrick Corbin strata but an argument could be made he’s superior to his former teammate Charlie Morton who, at age 35, signed a 2-year deal worth $30 million.  Figure he’s about $17 million in value. 

So how do these players factor into the Mets?  Many folks say to go get Kimbrel and create the killer pen they envisioned with they added All Star closer Jeurys Familia in a setup role to go with reigning saves leader Edwin Diaz.  I think that’s flat-out wrong on a number of levels.

First, you have a minimum wage closer who is doing all that you could ask of him right now.  Why would you run the risk of insulting him by asking him to move out of the closer’s role when he could become a free agent in a few years and thumb his nose at the team that spurned him?  Second, Kimbrel is going to cost major money over a long term.  Third, he’s not taking a setup role given his track record (last October notwithstanding). 

Signing Keuchel would cost less money, his rate wouldn’t be as high, and you stand to have potentially two vacancies in the rotation for 2020 if Zack Wheeler is true to his word and departs to test the open market, and you decide you don’t think Jason Vargas is worth the $8 million he would cost to pick up his option.  Keuchel would fill one of those voids and Anthony Kay may indeed fill the other (though before you write his name in ink, remind yourself of the stellar minor league seasons posted by Mssrs. Flexen and Oswalt which did not translate at the major league level). 

So signing Keuchel would give you six starters?  What to do, what to do…


Trade Zack Wheeler.  He has high upside value for the acquiring team who might need a rental for their post-season push.  Given his sub-$6 million contract, you’re not going to make him a $18 million+ Qualifying Offer, so you stand to lose him for nothing.  For once instead of a salary dump which thus far has not netted anyone of note, you would be in the driver’s seat with a quality arm to peddle to the highest bidder.  Whether you choose to address it with an established, controllable relief pitcher suited for the setup role or some blue chip prospects, it’s certainly better than watching him walk away for nothing since he’s stated he has no interest in a hometown discount. 

This move gets you down to 5 starters for the remainder of the year and 4 to start off in 2020 (5 if you do choose to keep Vargas or promote Kay).  Talent-wise it’s at worst a push.  However, anytime you can add a former Cy Young Award winner (and lefty to boot), you have to think about it.   

7 comments:

bill metsiac said...

Just because Wheeler has said "no hometown discount", that doesn't mean he's going to walk. If we want to keep him, we can still pay him what he's worth on the market.

Of course, there's a lot of this season left, but if he's good enough to land value in trade as a rental, then he's good enough to keep if possible.

He has said he likes it here. Is Keuchel really worth much more? As I've said before, I give "extra points" to someone who has proven he can handle NY. Look across the river, where Sonny Gray was going to solve all their pitching problems based on his out-of-town success. He flopped in NY, but is looking like his old self in Cincy.

If we give Wheeler an offer he considers fair, we still might sign him to an extension during the season. If not, we still cam compete after the season.

As for the pen, let's not rush to judgment. When it was bolstered in the off-season, who knew that Wilson and Avilan would have injury problems? Who knew that we've had a stretch in the last 2 weeks that we would lose Lugo and have to overuse the 3 veterans, especially Diaz? Our closer has pitched in 8 of the last 10 games, and warmed up in the other two. Lugo should be back this weekend, which will help. He could be the 8th inning guy we need, pushing Familia to less pressured spots. Hopefully, we can get long looks at Wilson and Avilan soon.

There's almost 2 monthe before the trade deadline. That's a long-enough period to assess what the pen looks like before making panic moves.

Tom Brennan said...

Vargas is our ace, no doubt. Last 6 starts, 2.40 ERA. Jake and Thor wilt under that spotlight. Jason, Jason, he's our man...

Tom Brennan said...

I think considering trading Wheeler is worth considering, but not for another several weeks, and only if the price is right. But Brodie may be looking at what you suggest now, Reese. There is sense to it.

Gary Seagren said...

It's really about how we fare thru a very tough June after the Giants and Rockies at home. We were ALL expecting a MUCH better performance from both the starters and the BP and it's been pretty spotty at best and yet we're still in the running....for now and if we get buried again by the end of June does BVW go fire sale? Also lets get Vargas a long term deal now!!! Crazy to think about both he and Matz are our #1 and #2 starters but BVW better get help for Diaz soon or Eddie's arm is going to fall off although isn't this the discussion every year.

bill metsiac said...

As I said above, Lugo is due back this weekend, and we need to see if Wilson and Avilan (and Santiago) are what we expected.

Too soon to panic.

Reese Kaplan said...

I heard them say it was too soon to panic in 2017 and 2018, too. :)

Mack Ade said...

I would trade Wheeler under any scenario.

I'm not sure the way to go here is to sign either pitchers that have a last name that starts with "K".

I can't believe I am saying this so early in the season, but I am once again calling for the same thing I have called for three years ago... a REAL full rebuild.

If we did it then, we would still have players like Dunn and Kelenic in the system.

Instead, we don't and we have won bupkis during these years.


You need to shed all contracts that end after the 2021 season. This includes Familia, Thor, Matz, even Conforto.

You trade these guys for, at least, two top 100 prospects... that's 8 newbies under full team control for 7+ years.

You take it in the apple for three years... hell, you just took it in the apple because you didn't do this, and you give this fan base something to dream about