Epitome of a Contact Hitter - Ichiro
Before my article - one slightly redirected scorching liner from Kevin Pillar last night and the Mets would have shoved the Braves into a very deep hole. And with 3 more Mets' pitcher injuries, the Mets are at increasing risk of falling into that hole themselves, so do the Mets throw caution to the wind and call up low-on-innings Tylor Megill?
Hey, why not, it's only a game, right? And Syracuse has plenty of other "pitchers" right now....as you'll see below....
NOW ON TO THE ARTICLE.....
Bud Harrelson was a widely beloved and, well, scrawny infielder for the Mets in the 1960s and 1970s.
Baseball Reference lists him at 5-11, 160, but we who followed all things Mets when he played know that 160 was not his playing weight. He had trouble staying above 140, actually.
One season, I recall in the offseason he did what was uncommon in that day and worked out to add muscle and, as I recall it, he came to camp at 172 and everyone marveled. But the weight melted off him like water off an ice cube on a 100 degree day.
But this isn't about his weight. Buddy was a slick fielder, for sure. and a hustler, but managed to stay in the big leagues in large part because he made contact, slapping the ball around, bunting, and even walking about once every 9 plate appearances.
He had a non-existent power game, with just 1 HR from 1965 through 1969, and as I recall it, that one was a slicing liner to short right that skipped past the right fielder and went all the way to the fence. Buddy busted it out of the box, and got himself an inside-the-parker.
But this isn't about his extra base hit paucity.
I am focused on STRIKEOUTS.
In Buddy's career, which spanned many years, he fanned just 653 times in 5,516 plate appearances, a low number. Divide by 10, and that would be 65 Ks in 552 plate appearances. Really low by today's standards.
The game has changed. A lot. I get it.
What follows does not require names, just numbers.
The numbers tell the tale.
I focused on just guys in St Lucie, Brooklyn, and Binghamton. Syracuse has lots of veteran players, so let's focus on what should be the hitter pipeline, the three other teams.
I looked through each list of player stats and looked for really high strikeout guys. To clarify that, if you were a player who fanned 30 times in 90 at bats, but also walked several times, while that is still high, that player was left out of my stats. That said, here goes (stats from around June 15):
Low A St Lucie:
8 players combined have fanned 228 times in 538 at bats, while hitting .189.
High A Brooklyn:
8 players combined have fanned 223 times in 591 at bats, while batting .189.
AA Binghamton:
5 players combined have fanned 191 times in 443 at bats, while batting .189.
In total, those 21 player have fanned 642 times in 1,572 at bats (an average of 1 punch out every 41% of their official at bats), while batting .189. Remember, Buddy fanned just 653 times in over 5,500 plate appearances, by comparison.
I guess .189 and fanning a lot go hand-in-hand. Hard to hit above .189 if the ball is only put in play 59% of the at bats. I guess (without breaking out my calculator) that means they are hitting over .300 as a group - when they actually hit the ball.
No way a Buddy Harrelson would strike out like that. Or a Matty Alou. They both choked up, and they'd get the ball in play somehow and run like the dickens, scratch out some hits. Somebody checks their stats, those dribblers, bunts, and hole-seeking grounders all counts the same as line drive hits.
Both veterans, by the way, had virtually no power and long major league careers. And Matty hit .307 lifetime. He fanned a mere 377 times in 6,220 plate appearances.
Alou's MLB career (the goal of every minor leaguer is to have one) spanned 14 years. If he fanned 41% of the time, that 377 in career Ks for Alou would have been over 2,000.
I just wonder:
What the HECK is going on in the minors these days?
Answer: K's Galore.
I think that 2, maybe 3, of these 21 hitters have a chance at a legit major league career because of their proclivity to not make contact. Those 2 or 3 may become very good major leaguers. Or they may be in a bit over their heads.
But really...what the heck is going on?
Mark Reynolds was the ALL TIME WORST K man in a single season in the majors, with 223 in 578 at bats.
Compare that to rates reflected in the above numbers....pretty comparable.
WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON?
I'd sure like to know.
Why? Because I can guarantee you that acting GM Zach Scott is not looking at a guy who is down on Met Donald's Farm, fanning 50% of his at bats, and thinking, "Now THAT'S a guy with a bright future."
Fanning 50% of the time and hoping to be a big leaguer is like a morbidly obese dude deciding he is going to enter a Mr. Universe contest in 2 weeks. Maybe they won't notice. (Sorry, they see the flaws).
If I was playing, and fanning like a sweltering senorita on a breezeless day, I'd make immediate and drastic changes to:
1) cut the Ks in half and
2) raise that .189 to a .289.
Or be actively searching now for what to do after baseball.
Jeff McNeil hated to strike out in the minors. His numbers bore that out.
He did not add power to his game for his first few developing years. He established first that he could make lots of contact, then hit for more power later. It worked.
Most minor leaguers can't become a Jeff McNeil. But his model, or Matty's, or Buddy's? They worked real well for those 3 guys. Maybe their approach might work for some of the whiffers.
I'll leave it at that, except to add one thing:
Mets minors catcher Nick Meyer was hitting .300 in 90 at bats, with just 12 Ks in over 100 PAs. Kudos.
If he can do it, just one K every 9 PAs, more of his fellow farmhands should try to as well.
Well, I was wrong, but now, I am almost done. Mets’ minors pitching this year can only be described by the 4 teams’ ERAs:
Syracuse: 6.41
Binghamton: 5.37
Brooklyn: 4.90
St. Lucie: 4.53
A four team average of 5.30. Yikes.
That is TONS AND TONS OF EARNED RUNS. You provide the reasons. No doubt, there are many. Probably almost as many as runs. My overall guess? Many guys are two levels higher than they should be.
8 comments:
Bud Harrelson had a career slash line of .236/.327/.288.
His career makes a strong argument for striking out more if, in the process, you can do some actual damage with the other ABs.
Nice fielder. He couldn't hit.
Jimmy
Hey, but Jimmy, .327 OBP lifetime. compared to the $361 million dollar, eleven year man's (.314).
Most of these extremists (41% is extreme) need to cut the Ks down in half if they are to have MLB hope. Kind of like....Buddy.
Two non-hitting K artists already dropped out of the sweepstakes, Lindsay and Molina.
More will follow in due time.
Do like Matty Alou do - or we'll be seeing you (not)
If only the Mets had a minor league manager that emphasized getting on base, hitting against the shift, putting the ball in play, speed, stealing bases...I bet he'd win a Championship even if his team was short on prospects. Wait they did Edgardo Alfonzo - and his Brooklyn Cyclones won the 2019 Championship. What happened to him? Oh yeah they fired him as manager. Never mind
John, so true. Hit like McNeil - make contact early, don't get in a hole, hit against the shift.
Binghamton (just as one example) fanned 961 times in 4,729 at bats in 2008. That's about 1 every 4.9 at bats.
This year? 425 in 1,334 at bats - one every 3.1 at bats.
Drastic difference.
For St Lucie and Brooklyn, the disparities between those teams and 2008 are likely a good bit larger.
The article I wrote today - I could NOT have written it then. Almost no one fanned a lot.
Batting. 189 seems to be catching down there.
Okay, but you are making a very weak argument by naming Harrelson and Alou.
I mean, those are the guys -- the empty BA guys -- that helped inspire baseball's recognition that a strikeout isn't the worst thing in the world. Repetitive weak contact, a lack of power, is far worse in terms of generating RUNS.
Guys strikeout because they are trying to do damage. It's the new calculus. If you strike twice, but also hit a double into the gap, maybe a bomb, then you are doing okay.
Look: I agree that the rash of strikeouts has made for a more tedious, almost unwatchable game at times. And I believe more contact, overall, makes for a better, more well-rounded offense. I loved Murphy for that reason, and McNeil.
But if you do the analysis, as these teams have all done, there's no thinking person in baseball who thinks going back to the Matty Alou Punch-and-Judy approach will help them score more runs.
The great mythology behind "the productive out" has been debunked. Happened 30-40 years ago. But old ideas, even wrong ones, die hard. Not that productive outs don't exist, but that their quantity and productivity are limited. Nostalgic fans, thinking about the old days of "building runs," tend to romanticize the hallowed weak grounder that moves a runner over. Sometimes it helps! Especially late and close. A lot of times . . . it's just an out and nobody's scored. But, sure, better than a strikeout.
In general, players with high K rates also tend to hit HRs. So strikeouts are viewed as a consequence of hitting HRs -- and teams accept it.
But I agree that players who get on base more are also extremely valuable. However, again, home run hitters are the ones who tend to walk more often; pitchers are careful, wary. There are also outliers, but this is generally true. The extreme was Barry Bonds walking, what, 200 times one year?
Personally, I think an ideal offense should feature balance, and that includes both high-K/big power guys as well as contact hitters. If I had to have one or the other, but not both? I'd reluctantly go with the power bats.
Matty was an interesting player, especially for us older fans who were weened on the idea that BA was king. He hit above .330 from 66-69. Interestingly, he almost never walked. Contact guys swing often and early, the opposite of "looking for your pitch." In Alou's more productive seasons, he had 30 XBH. It wasn't all flares and infield hits and empty BA.
But if I had a corner outfielder with Alou's .726 career OPS . . . I'd be looking for a more productive hitter.
Jimmy
Jimmy, great points. I may not have been clear enough. I am not advocating for players to permanently hit like slap hitters. Just long enough to learn how to not strike out at drastic rates. I like low K guys with low power initially, like McNeil and TJ Rivera, even Nimmo, who added on more power after they proved they could hit. Unless guys have BIG power, too many Ks are a career killer. All too early.
Lots of fingers to be pointed all around. Look at Jake Mangum. In 2019 in Brooklyn a 12.4% K rate - hitting .247 with just 7 extra base hits but he did hit around .350 with runners in scoring position (Mets could sure use a guy like that). This year? The extra base hits are up (11 extra base hits in 133 at bats this year compared to 210 last year) but his K % is way up abd his overall batting average is way down. People complained that he was just a singles hitter - now he is trying to hit for more power - K rate goes up. Not every player is the same. I agree with Jimmy - A lineup needs balance. Trying to turn a slap hitter into a power hitter does not work.
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