WHO BESIDES ME THIS SPRING THOUGHT TYLOR MEGILL WOULD BE STARTING METS MAJOR LEAGUE GAMES IN JUNE?
OK, I wasn’t sure either. But his fine pitching and opportunity converged.
Baseball is always a game of shifting future decision projections.
Few fans probably thought Tylor Megill might be a valuable Met in 2021 - or even a Met in 2021 at all. But here we are. The front office may have felt the same way, but injuries and Megill's outsized minor league performances early in 2021 shifted things concerning him rapidly.
Moving on...about 3 months back, Francisco Lindor was the trade and spring training sensation, and the question was: do the Mets sign him to a 10 year extension of not? The Mets thought the risk was worth it - had they waited and evaluated the shifting currents since then, they might well have decided differently. Maybe a 5 year, $150MM guy instead, or maybe would have signed someone else in the off season.
But maybe Lindor's play will shift into a far higher gear and stay there for a long time to come.
Moving on....Michael Conforto.
There was heated speculation as to whether he would be extended in some mega-millions fashion pre-season. But a few things may have shifted the Mets' thinking.
First, someone (not me. Reese?) made an excellent point this past off season: Conforto had by far the majors' highest BABIP - meaning 2020's terrific (but not other-worldly) was unlikely to be repeated in 2021. That has been the case so far, and his hammy pull shows he can't be counted on to be Ripken-durable.
In his case, not having extended, maybe the Mets decide to look elsewhere. Or maybe Conforto's demands drop. Or maybe he ignites from here on out and shows that 2020 WAS his new normal.
In any event, alternatives will be considered. And in that respect, there are shifting circumstances that could factor in.
One such factor is: Are there any minor leaguers who could replace MC Hammer next year? Risky business. We can see how a "can't miss superstar" like Kelenic can start a career 8 for 83. Sometimes guys adapt to the big leagues immediately, sometimes they don't, and for a contending team like the Mets, "immediate, likely success" is critical.
But here are a few possible minor leaguers who could step into Conforto's BIG shoes at minimum wage and allow Uncle Steve to spend big elsewhere (and as of right now, Robinson Cano is still owed 2 years, $40 million starting in 2022, complicating matters):
Former 3rd rounder started this season 3 for 16 with one double in AA, but since then?
.309 in 149 at bats, with 17 doubles, a triple and 8 HRs. Wow.
With about 80 more minor league games left this year, he has plenty of time to show whether he can sustain this level of production at AA and AAA and be ready for 2022. He is a 2B and OF, BTW. He could be a real consideration for 2022 by the time his season ends in mid September.
Another 3rd rounder, Lee was rushed to the Big Show in 2021 when many OF injuries hit early. He flopped with the bat, but accomplished 2 things: 1) he got a better idea as to what he needs to do to succeed, and 2) he already broke the MLB ice, so his next time up won't be the "I've never been here before, can I succeed?" added pressure.
So far in AAA, in 28 games, he is .270/.444/.416. He is only 3 for 7 in steals, but was 53 of 65 in 2019, so he has speed that Conforto does not. He surely is still not ready right now, but if he continues with a .444 OBP over the last 12 weeks of the AAA season, who is to say he can't shift opinions there?
His strikeouts are still a bit high, but so are his walks....a very high 24 BBs in 28 AAA games. You try to work out a lot of walks, you likely will fan more. And his power is a bit low so far, but he hit for power in 2019.
Again, right now, planning for him to take over for Conforto in 2022 as the RF starter for the Mets? I'd rate that as unlikely. But a month ago, I'd have rated it as ZERO CHANCE. Stay healthy, and play really well, and opinions could further shift.
I see him replacing Conforto as the 2022 starting Mets' right fielder as highly unlikely. First, he hasn't played the outfield! Second, he still has not gotten to AA, much less AAA. Third, he is hitting in the .230s. BUT...his slash line in hard to hit in Cyclones Park through June 26 was .110/.186/.123, while his road slash was .330/.364/.670.
Maybe get him the heck out of Brooklyn, and get Cortes up to AAA, both happening no later than just after the ASB, and then stick Mauricio in the AA outfield, where he would face tougher pitching but likely a far more welcoming home park.
If we were talking about opening day 2023, I could see him as a real possibility. Time to learn RF, and more time to develop. But it clearly seems to be much too far a leap to think he'd be ready opening day 2022 to be a Mets starting RF. He could well become trade bait.
His ascent to opening day starting 2022 right fielder for the Mets was possible, even if a truly long shot, BEFORE he got injured and needed surgery, so I will waste no time here discussing it. Had he gotten 130 games under his belt in 2021, though, perhaps he enters the conversation, but his injury shifted him back a year. You gotta be in it to win it.
Ramirez is just 18, but has great high end tools. he started with a huge sputter in St Lucie, but is quickly adapting well with the bat. Even if he has a Ronald Acuna type of ceiling (not saying he does), he won't be ready for opening day 2022 - but if he turns out to have surreal ability, they'll have a much better idea as to his ETA with the Mets.
He is a catcher, so why is he here? He seems likely to be a fast moving beast of a catcher. My guess is mid-2022 is not beyond the realm of possibility. And he'll bring his minimum wage paycheck with him. Having minimum wage guys to step in big (as the Mets found out with McNeil and Alonso in 2019) is pure gold, as $$ can be spent elsewhere. Alvarez also has 12 weeks, and his bat is seemingly so good, I could easily see him getting some real AA time this season. And shifting views as to what to do to construct a beautiful, affordable Mets mosaic in 2022. Bret Baty is another Brooklyn guy who could come fast - and cheaply - in 2022 and alter the Mets' 2022 planning landscape.
All in all, the front office has a million things to consider. May they consider the shifting circumstances correctly and make the right calls this off season.
13 comments:
What will it take to get Schwarber...just kidding but maybe not and yes Tom I've been dreaming about Megill on the hill giving me a thrill all season (yeah right). Great post and yes the FO has alot of decisions to make with the offense under performing this badly. Sadly you mentioned Cortes starting the season 3 for 16 with 1 double as that's a Lindor hot streak and boy are we all hoping that changes real soon. I also wonder how Steve will react to any more mega deals in the future as we all know how the Wilpons reacted ugh.
Tom, Mauricio should go to CF for the second half of this year. He shows great range and that is important, but he makes a lot of errors. Let’s see what he has in the outfield. He can always be moved later. Baty may also be an option for a corner outfield shift.
As for taking over for Conforto, you may check out this guy Michael Conforto… We know his agent is cutthroat, but Conforto has said that he is the boss. A deal that makes sense should be discussed and you never know… I’d like to see the Mets instead get rid of the infielders playing the outfield, not the outfielder playing the outfield. Smith first to go, Alonso seems like this is his ceiling and is that high enough?
What is Lee’s ceiling? Cortes is an infielder, no arm at all. Mauricio or Baty need some exposure to the grass. Vientos is a snail, leave him in the infield. PCA is too far away…
Conforto is not going to be replaced by a raw, crummy minor leaguer. That's not happening.
I have no problem with him walking this winter. But need a real guy to fill his spot (or take CF and move Nimmo to LF and, maybe, McNeil in RF).
Jimmy
Gus, I agree that Mauricio needs time in the OF. Ease him in, get him some exposure out there.
The difficult part is that as trade bait some of his value stems from his ability to play SS. You might be decreasing his trade value by moving him off the position.
To me, it's obvious that he should get some time in the outfield, period. If it's bad out there, so what. Better to learn the ropes in the minors, right?
Another alternative is to have him play in Fall League or Puerto Rican league as an outfielder.
Jimmy
From the desk of the Cookie People
We think that the Mets more veteran starting players that have been out injured awhile, may now have their respective hands somewhat full with the replacement wave of talent who were subbed in and played most admirably for them. In other words, we really like what we have been seeing with especially these two players: RF Billy McKinney (outstanding swing and power stroke, plays a a nice D and is all upside) and righty starting pitcher Tyler McGill who is big, strong and throws hard with good downward movement, has multiple MLB pitches, and for him sky is his only limit.
Super-subs Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme, and Kevin Pillar should be positively automatic includes for the 2022 Mets season.
On some of the younger Mets players in MiLB
As we all know, MiLB is the spring board into MLB for those players who are capable of making this upward move to the bigs talent wise. The Mets have a few of these very sound and athletic MiLB players knocking upon this door, but it is somewhat blocked right now because the group of talent here already ahead of them is also relatively young and very talented.
Some close to being up here like Mauricio, Cortez, and perhaps Rodriguez may find that their true place to begin MLB may perhaps be on other teams via trades. Even so, this is the spring board move that playing MiLB is all about, and nothing at all to be disappointed about for them.
It is their big league liftoff.
On Brandon Drury
This is another player that I never truly understood or got. Twenty-eight years old, seven years in the bigs for seven seasons but full time only three. First saw him on AZ and immediately liked his play. 2016 batted .282 with 16 homeruns and in 2017 .267 BA with 13 homeruns. Played a decent third base.
I think he can back to these two seasons.
Overall, the Mets need to bat at a higher batting average team wise. We all see this. It isn't the 2020 season level batting wise yet, although they win games anyway. But imagine when they all get back into that 2020 hitting zone again and hopefully soon. To the moon Alice.
deGrom, Walker, McGill, Stroman, and Peterson. Eye to any possible trade to bring more depth to this. Could be a top end starter or an up and coming starter with promise. I like MacKenzie Gore right now for this. But it would take much in a trade.
Which one is iur future 3B? Baty, Vientos or Mauricio?
I think Baty is the 3B of future.
Really liked what I saw of Vientos during Spring Training. Good eye, approach at the plate.
Baty seems special.
Jimmy
Agree Jimmy. From what I've seen so far, Baty looks to be the best fielding third baseman.
I like Baty for the long term option at 3rd. I personally think Mauricio should be playing 2nd base now. I am not sure why I have not seen that idea floated in the press.
I'm not sure what to think of Vientos. His bat has come alive in Binghamton. It looks real - he is a hitter, but with Baty just behind him, and Alonso (and Smith?) in front of him, perhaps he is the best trade chip in the system.
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