Reese Kaplan -- So What If the Mets Ran Like the Tampa Bay Rays?

Suppose the Mets bring in a GM who said that a wholesale change of personnel is what's needed, both to foster winning ballgames and also to let people start to shake off the same old/same old emotions of many years past.  

While everyone is focusing on who to sign among the 13 free agents and who to fill in for the perceived gaps on the offensive and pitching sides of the ledger, maybe that's not the way to approach things.  Maybe you really need to think BIG and swallow hard at what that might mean for the future.

If you watch the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland A's and a few other smaller revenue teams, they live by a model of trading away their top talent when they become too expensive or have crossed over the downhill side of their careers.  They bring back a large passel of talented and inexpensive younger players who can potentially keep them contending for the next 5-6 years.  Is that approach wrong?  

Well, considering these teams have been contending for awhile, the Rays had their top executive swooped up by another club and the A's manager just went down the coast to San Diego.  Some folks must like what they're seeing.

So for a moment, let's pretend the Mets organization embraces this philosophy and chooses to restock the organization by peddling their highest priced and most desirable players.  While you can't do it for every player, there are certainly some whose presence on the open market would cause a stampede of competing GMs trying to outbid one another with better and better packages to make the Mets' hypothetical GM actually say, "Deal!"

The first one on the prospective big ticket block would be future Hall of Fame caliber pitcher Jacob deGrom.  I will give you a moment to get your blood pressure back under control and to stop loading your weapons for me saying the most heretical thing since Dick Young urged the Mets to dump Tom Seaver.   

Remember, this exercise is merely some long term thought about what might help the Mets reengineer for the future.  As it stands right now, deGrom is going into his age 34 season with a career ERA of just 2.50.  You can't find pitching talent like that every day (year, decade or generation).  His WHIP has been under 1.000 for four straight years.  He's won a Rookie of the Year, been a four-time All Star, owns two Cy Young Awards and two strikeout leading totals.  

Now, on the down side, he has been hurt.  With each passing year he seems to want to ratchet up the velocity significantly, yet it means he is straining his body more than perhaps is necessary.  

Then there is his salary.  Right now he's earning a well deserved $35.5 million for the 2022 season after which he may opt out as his salary for 2023 dips slightly to $32.5 million.  If he remains, then he's here for that season and an option exists for yet another year in 2024 at $32.5 million as well.  

Assuming the Mets kept him all of that time, they are on the hook to their ace for a tick over $100 million for his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons which may or may not be productive given his health issues.

So if the fictitious Mets GM said, "deGrom is available for a significant package," what would it take for you to make a move in that direction?  Suppose you were offered 3 of another organization's top five prospects...would that be enough to tempt you?  What if they added in a young and highly regarded MLB player, too?  Remember, that in addition to whatever you get, you also retain that $100 million to invest on other needs.  

Now let's take the same scenario with a younger player who is going to be a "name your price" type of trade to make to another team.  While everyone is very sour right now about both Dom Smith and J.D. Davis, the fact is that they have both turned in some pretty impressive offensive numbers and either one could man 1st base.  

That would allow you to offer up the turning 27 year old Pete Alonso to the highest bidder.  What kind of package would it take to pique your interest?  

For a frame of reference, the Cleveland Indians had a player turning 27 who had been a four time All Star and two time Gold Glover who netted actually relatively little in return.  The Mets wanted Francisco Lindor and needed another starting pitcher who turned out to be Carlos Carrasco.  They gave up Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene.  

Now while everyone is down on what Lindor produced and how much his extended contract cost, bear in mind that Gimenez hit .218 for the season, Rosario was much better at .282, 19 year old Greene hit .289 in the lowest minor leagues, and Josh Wolf pitched to a 5.35 ERA in A-ball.  That's a 50/50 return on the trade for Cleveland.  The Mets know what Lindor can do and perhaps they rushed Carrasco back a bit too quickly, but I have a feeling Pete Alonso would net even more. 

In his brief major league career Alonso has two All Star Home Run Derby titles in two attempts, he's clubbed 106 HRs and driven in 249 in just slightly over two full seasons' worth of at-bats.  He's fan-friendly and plays a position that provides little strain on his body.  I keep echoing back to Tom Glavine's TV commercial in which he proclaimed, "Chicks dig the long ball."  

Consequently I think the price for Alonso would perhaps be even higher than it would for deGrom since he doesn't come with a current $100 million salary obligation over the next three years.  

So what would it take to pry Alonso loose from the Mets?  Bear in mind that the multiple trades of Smith, Davis and even Jeff McNeil combined wouldn't amount to what Alonso alone would command.  Would it be young pitching?  Would it be multiple outfielders?  Would it be 4 of the top 5 prospects plus a major leaguer? To the acquiring team, yes, they would have the eventual Lindor-like contract to pay in the near future but right now he earns almost nothing.  

We could play this game all day with others included for trade consideration like Edwin Diaz as well.  The fact is that if these kinds of trades were made, you would greatly reshape the roster and get a fresh new level of interest in the team.  Obviously any success provided by deGrom or Alonso would be amplified by the New York area media, but if you were able to field a team with mostly homegrown players who came up through your minors your team might more resemble the Houston Astros than the 1962 Mets.