Tom Brennan - Are The Mets' Arizona Fall League Pitchers Above or Below Standard?

I did an article a few days back on whether the Mets' 4 Arizona Fall League hitters were doing above or below standard.

As a standard, I used the overall league's offense for the other 5 teams besides theirs as a standard.

Based on that, up to that point in time, they were below league standard in hitting and power.  But it is a short season, with limited samples, so one cannot conclude too much from it.  Except to say they are not taking the AFL by storm - so far.

Non-Mets pitchers for the 5 other AFL teams, excluding the Rafters (the team on which the Mets 4 pitchers and 4 hitters participate), have had a rough go in the AFL, as in "754 runs allowed in 1,043 innings rough".  Off the top of my head, that's about 6.5 runs per 9 innings.  

And keep in mind that the Mets' pitchers don't get to face the weak-hitting Rafters, so they get no breaks.

Mets pitchers' comparisons to standard are tougher, since the Mets have two starters (Garrison Bryant and Connor Grey) and 2 relievers (Colin Holderman and Bryan Metoyer), who combined have thrown just 42 innings. A few bad outings and they don't look so good.  Vey small sample sizes.

That said, let's run through them - stats are through Wednesday, with the season ending next Friday, so they still have time to accelerate through the tape at the finish line.

Collectively, the lads are 1-4, 1 save, and in 42 IP, 29 runs allowed.  That seems like a lot, yet somewhat better than league normal.

But the Rafters are just 7-16 and are the lowest scoring team in the league by far, so if you allow 29 runs in 42 innings, without your own team scoring, going 1-4 is not a surprise.

22 year old Garrison Bryant, a former 36th rounder, gave up 3 HRs in 3+ innings in a start the other day.  It jumped his ERA to 4.85.  He has allowed 4 HRs in his 13 innings, but otherwise pitched well.  About to turn 23, he has just 220 innings since 2016 as a pro, so this is a well-needed innings add for him.  

He only had 3 innings in his career as high as High A, the rest lower, so facing AFL batsmen is a big step up for him here.  Hopefully a big stepping stone to a break out 2022 campaign in the Mets minors.

Connor Grey is 1-2, 3.60 in his 16 innings in the AFL, so he has done well.  He looks young, but is older (will turn 28 in May 2022) and far more experienced than Bryant, including 31 innings in AA this year.  If 2022 goes right, the former 20th rounder Grey seems he potentially could be one of those guys who gets a few MLB innings in 2022.  

He threw indy ball, and High A and AA ball with the Mets too, in 2021, totaling 103 innings, including the AFL.  So he is primed for real innings in 2022.

Bryan Metoyer, who turns 25 on Saturday, had a few bad outings early but has been great of late.  Control, as always, has been the 40th rounder's nemesis.  Having relieved very well in Brooklyn this year, this league is a jump up for him, and after a rocky AFL start out of the gates, he righted the ship.  8 walks in 6.2 innings, but better control of late, and a gaudy 11 Ks, no surprise since he fanned a lot more guys than innings in 2021.  

His ERA is 6.75 but that is deceptively high from the bad outing.   If all goes right for Metoyer in 2022, I'd not be surprised to see him reach the majors at some point.  (Note: he subsequently threw a perfect 1.1 innings Thursday night, with 3 Ks, in an otherwise horribly pitched game by both teams (25 runs, massive number of walks).  He really seems to be on a dominant roll now, which is what you hope to get from a future major league pen arm.  Two arrows pointing up).

Colin Holderman is a 6'7" righty who has been injured an awful lot, and injuries early in 2021 limited his season output.  he had 11 outings in AA, but only 24 total minor league innings in 2021 pre-Fall Ball.  He was effective, with just 16 hits allowed and 27 Ks.  In Arizona, he got roasted and toasted in a few relief outings, so his 9.82 ERA in 8 outings spanning 7.1 innings looks terrible, but he has been mostly good in his recent outings, once you exclude the few very bad ones.  

The former 9th rounder turned 26 in October, and he has a very Tom Szapucki-like mere 192 innings since his 2015 debut, in just 74 total outings.  

I recalled that he was the opening day pitcher for the Mets squad in low A ball in 2017 and dazzled with 6 innings of one hit shutout ball with no walks and 11 Ks, and I thought then that a star was born.  He promptly got hurt and threw very few innings that season.  His high water innings mark was 2019, with just 66 innings and 16 outings.  He desperately needs to stay healthy in 2022 and show what he's got. 

May all 4 pitchers finish their AFL stints with a flourish.

Oh, and just be glad Wilmer Flores is not a Met.  The Rafters' Wilmer Flores, that is. His 12 innings have been action-filled, with 15 hits, 14 runs, 13 walks and 16 Ks.  It's not that he's bad - my guess is he knows he won't get a lot of innings, and he wants to stay out there, so he keeps giving up hits and walks. That 1-2-3 inning stuff is so limiting.

That's the deal, folks.  Just my standard fare.  Hopefully, it wasn't substandard.  After all, you readers are well above standard.