11/18/21

Tom Brennan - The Mets' Tortoise, or the Mets' Hare - You Decide

 


Elmer says, "Sufferin' Succotash, if the Mets are gonna have a real shot, they need to stay healthy."

Do you remember the story of the Tortoise and the Hare?  

Elmer Fudd (who had, I hear, a nasty slider) spent a lot of time hunting the hare, as you may recall, but I digress...

Wikipedia briefly synopsizes as follows:

"The Tortoise and the Hare" is one of Aesop's Fables. The account of a race between unequal partners has attracted conflicting interpretations. The fable itself is a variant of a common folktale theme in which ingenuity and trickery are employed to overcome a stronger opponent.

The "stronger opponent" these days for pitchers isn't opposing hitters, so much as it is injury brought on in most cases by overly-maximized pitcher velocity and maximized spin on hard breaking stuff.  And overtraining.  

At least, that's how I see it.

The pitchers have one primary goal - getting the biggest next contract possible.  Even if you are a Tommy John Surgery graduate, if you time that right, like Zack Wheeler did, and have fully recovered as free agency beckons, and can light up the radar gun, well, back up the Brinks truck. Ka-Ching!

Not that they threw softly, but I can point out a number of old timers that were mighty durable, incredibly much more so than most of today's flaming-out flamethrowers like, oh, I dunno, deGrom and and Syndergaard, and even guys who perhaps trained too hard or tried to throw too hard like Peterson and Lucchesi.  I can hear the witch at the cauldron cackling, "Lats and elbows, elbows and lats, and a pence for your shoulder too, me pretty." 

Jerry Koosman missed a few starts here and there between 1968 and 1981, but not many.

Tom Terrific was terrifically durable, I'm sure you'd agree.  Without looking back at his stats, I think he missed almost no starts over a 13 year stretch.

The Ryan Express ran every 4th day for many years and was extraordinarily durable.

Jon Matlack didn't miss too many starts over the 9 years from 1972 to 1980.

Dwight Gooden hardly ever saw the doc between 1984 and 1993.  He toed the rubber and didn't blubber.

Ron Darling was not a darling of doctors over the same 10 seasons, as he was incredibly durable.


These days, we get the 21st century break downs...the glass-fragile Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, and others.

HOW MANY STARTS HAVE THOSE 5 MISSED OVER THE COURSE OF THEIR CAREERS, COMPARED TO THE OLD TIMERS?   

Incredibly many more games.  Their "% of actual starts vs. potential starts" over that period of time is, let me guess, 60%?  The old timers above, their starts over the aforementioned periods in their career had to be around 95% - without trying to calculate it, I'd estimate they missed only about 5% of their starts.

And the accumulated complete games of the first 5?  More than the total career starts of the latter, newer 5, by a long shot.  Yet, the ancient 5 (sorry, Ronnie, you're ancient now, too, but so am I) almost never, ever got hurt.

Some starters these days?  

They almost never, ever seem to start.

Something is SO wrong with today's game.  It hurts me to say it.

Maybe the "Tortoise 5" of days long since gone relied a lot more on moxie and finesse, and less on extreme training, than the "Hare 5," who rear back and fire at max velocity, consequences be darned - and work, work, work that core.  The Tortoise 5 would probably have asked "what's a core?" back when they played - then jiggled their belly fat and went out and pitched.

Me?  I think today's hurlers are Hare Brains, personally.  

I'd rather see Jake adopt some Seaver finesse and not miss as many starts as Jake has in his 7.5 seasons as a Met.  His WAR in games missed is 0.0. His absence when needed can sabotage seasons.

Thor?  He's started 120 games - but missed about 80 starts.  Imagine where his career would be if he hadn't missed ANY STARTS? All due to those all-out fastballs, all-out sliders, and physical over-training, the kind that, for instance, Jerry Koosman never did as he focused on job # 1, durability.  

So, Noah has made 60% of his potential starts, but if he can pull off a strong 2022, he'll want $100 million +, without a doubt - despite his extensive "absences from work."

I've made my point, I think.  I guess the Mets decided not to go out as far on the limb on the fragile Norse god as the Angels.

A great pitcher going 16 starts at warp speed and breaking down, or achieving 33 starts at less than warp speed, but arriving at the favored destination - I'll take Route 33, thanks.

Just another point to add, that I've made in several recent articles: 

The Mets used 12 more pitchers in 2021 than the Championship 1969 and 1986 teams used - COMBINED.  Much of that pitcher shuffling is current day strategy, but much of that is due to increased injury.  Of the Hare-Brained kind.

Some will say, the times are different.  

OK...but if you call that progress, you are XXXX-brained.  

Fill in the X's.

Me?  I love excellent player attendance and competitive performance.

Injuries happen - but the frequency these days, compared to days of yore, is off the charts.  Bring back the charts.


P.S. I LOVE FACEBOOK POSTS.  YOU KNOW I DO (NOT).

A Facebook posting fan recently gave Jake deGrom an "A" grade for 2021.  

I replied that from opening day through game 83, he got an A+++ from me.  The last 79 games?  An F.  

My math? DNP = F.  

It might as well have been me, Mack, or Reese on the roster, as we all threw the same number of innings as Jake after July 7.  I would gladly have thrown zero innings for the MLB minimum salary, which is a lot less than Jake was making.

Kidding aside, the whole season matters.  

You miss half the season, you don't get an A.  I'll take 33 starts, 17-7 and a 2.00 ERA (and making the playoffs) over 15 starts, 7-2, a 1.08 ERA, and no playoffs any year because the guys who pitched in my place got shelled like pistachio nuts.

Give me an H, give me an A, give me an R, give me an E. What's that spell?  

Hare...and Lack of Success.  

Tortoises that stay on the field and out of infirmaries ought to get bonuses.

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