I love to follow our prospects and think the best of our best.
That said, there are objective measuring sticks for those players that come along as the calendar year proceeds, like 40 man roster decisions. It is interesting to see who is included (protected) and who is excluded and ponder why.
Three categories:
1) Mets prospects added;
2) Mets prospects excluded;
3) Outside prospects added.
1) IF/OF Mark Vientos, SS/OF(?) Ronny Mauricio, and RHPs Adam Oller and Jose Butto. All seemingly are no-brainers.
Vientos and Mauricio ought to become everyday major leaguers (and perhaps even future All Stars) in the not-too-distant future, and the Mets know it, and other teams know it also. If they were left exposed, they'd be gone in a flash.
And you've gotta protect pitchers you think will be useful assets, and Oller and Butto certainly fit that bill - both almost undoubtedly will hurl in 2022 for the New York Mets. Why? If for no other reason than they used 30+ pitchers in 2021. But I think both will be more-than-marginal Mets in 2022.
Also on the 40 mensch roster is OF Mark Payton. Turning 30 soon, and with just a handful of major league ABs, it seemed at first a curious add to the 40 man, but he has demonstrable talent.
He dazzled in AAA in 2019 (OK, in the PCL), with 30 doubles, 30 HRs and a .334 average in just 118 games. In 2021 with Syracuse, primarily, he hit a quality .293/.360/.462 in 75 games, and he does not fan a lot. A 5'8" lefty hitter with pop and some quickness who does not fan a whole lot. Hmmm... Whether he can translate that to the major league level remains to be seen.
2) Excluded were 4 AFL players - IF/OF Carlos Cortes, RHPs Colin Holderman and Brian Metoyer, and C Hayden Senger.
Cortes to me was the most surprising, as he started out scalding hot in AA in 2021, but then had a weaker, injury-impacted second half and mediocre AFL stint. My guess? Mets hope most teams see him as a season away from a 4th or 5th OF role on the major league level. I originally thought he'd be MLB ready in 2023, but 2024 is more likely a realistic timeframe, since Carlos has yet to play AAA ball.
Holderman has missed tons of time, and his AFL stint was not dominant, and Metoyer was alternately very good or terrible in his AFL outings. Both seem to need another sold, healthy season before 40 man protection is needed. Given how many pitchers the Mets use in a season, though, it is not beyond speculation that either or both could make his big league debut in 2022.
Senger is solid defensively and OK offensively, but it also seems his selection, even at an in-demand role like catcher, would be a year premature. Patrick Mazeika is ahead of him right now and was protected also. Mazeika, when not with the Mets in 2021, had a better AAA season than Senger had in AA.
Also excluded was Carlos Rincon, a slugger who hit in the .270s, with a pretty high K rate, in AA. My guess is the Mets feel he won't be MLB-ready until 2023, and then in a back up role, so no need to protect him now.
3) Recent arrivals and additions to the 40 man include Nick Plummer and Antonio Santos.
Plummer, yet another lefty OF bat, was a former 23rd overall pick in 2015 who, pre-pandemic, was frankly a complete failure, hitting under .200 with lots of Ks over 2015-19, getting no higher than A ball. He also missed 2016 altogether - not sure why.
In 2021, though, in AA and AAA, he was much improved, hitting .280/.415/.479. Strikeouts remained high but substantially improved, and like lefty-hitting Khalil Lee, Nick walked and got HBP a lot - 90 total times in 117 games. That production clearly puts the 25 year old Plummer ahead of (lefty, too) Carlos Cortes as of right now. He also brings more OF versatility than Cortes, as he has manned LF, CF, and RF.
Plummer's production should inspire Jaylen Palmer and Sherveyn Newton, two similarly athletic Mets' prospects with truly high K rates, that perhaps that flaw in their games, especially it seems with Palmer, could be fixed and make a future major league career a reality.
Antonio Santos has had a weak minor league career statistics, but the pitcher has had a few stints pitching for Colorado. The first time around, in 2020, he got hammered in limited innings. This past season, in less than 10 MLB innings, his BAA and OBP against both lefties and righties were solid, although he put up a weak season in the minors. So, it appears with some further enhancement, we are likely to see Santos in the Mets' pen, at least occasionally, in 2022.
That's my take. What's yours?
I'm expecting at least 40 men from our roster of readers to leave comments.
14 comments:
I always loved Mark Payton out of school
I hope the Mets give him a chance in ST to try to win a UT OF position
Boy, Mack, that last rung of the ladder can be such a tough one. Payton certainly has worked had to get to the upper minors and do well there. He's gotta be ready when the bell rings.
Re. 40-man (as Rule 5 draft protection). You can bury a talented, but maybe not quite ready for prime time pitcher in the back of the bullpen so there is some risk in not protecting juicy, but not fully ripened hurlers. Outside of perceived sure things (Mauricio, Vientos) posiion players not ready to contribute (yet) even on a limited basis are really not worth clogging up your 40-man.
Nick Meyer is regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the minors and last year he hit .251 total in Syracuse and Binghamton. I think he will get plunked.
Maybe I'm too narrow minded, the truth is I'm more concerned who will be on the major league roster if and when the 2022 season begins post-CBA lockout.
Reese, I wondered if the Mets might tank 2022 and go for a super rebuild, or dive in immediately. I guess the water is really comfortable for diving right now.
Nick Meyer is a possibility to get plucked. But baseball's 10th ranked catcher (Langelier) is the Braves' 2nd ranked catcher. Meyer is somewhere in the Mets' mid 20's. So that tells me he might only be about the 50th overall catcher in the minors right now. Time will tell, though.
Sir Hobie, excellent point, as always.
Tom the super rebuild would have started with trading Jake last winter and no Baez trade which means we still have the Crow man and signing Rocker. Now we just dove in head first so lets see what Stevie can do from here. I just hope SC's not off his "rocker"....time will tell.
OK so Semien just got 7 years for $175mil so I just got my aluminum bat and I'm beating the hell out my dead horse again because that means FL could of been had for say 8 for 200. Now how much do you pay Baez and do you want him?
Lindor likely gets more then that (if he was a FA now), based on age (younger) and the premium placed on SS. I agree that it would be less then the Mets gave him in the Spring, but it would still be hefty (around 30 per year, IMO…….like 8 yrs, 240 million, maybe).
In any event, I agree that Semien’s deal is probably Baez’s ceiling……….unless he moves back to SS, but he also cannot touch Semien’s production (offense and defense).
I move on from Baez and keep McNeil at 2B……….we need pitching way more then another bat.
Let's get Max, and ask Baez to be realistic if he wants to play for a WS contender. Me? I'm fine with Max - and McNeil.
TB:
Eduardo Escobar may be the Mets second base person based upon a two year $20 million deal recently signed. If you check out his stats, he hits well and for power (Javier power) but strikes out less.
So, where do we stand already possibly?
First, second, and short seem probably filled. I personally would like to see third base with Mark Vientos or maybe Ronnie Mauricio. I think one would grab it out of ST 2022. The team could always have JD Davis back there, considering he was playing most of 2021 with a hurt hand but still managed the second best batting average on the team.
The outfield (hopefully) will be something like: LF JKD Davis (if not on third base) CF Marte RF Nimmo. But to me, the catcher position is the weakest spot on the Mets' field, still. Neither McCann nor Nido really hit mush for average in 2021. But with Francisco Alvarez here soon as the starting catcher, the Mets may not want to upgrade this position too much for next season.
Mark Canha had a really solid 2019 season stat wise, but he'll be 33 years old by the start of the 2022 season and to me is "the perfect" fourth outfielder on this team.
The Mets offense/fielder part of their 2022 team is to me looking solid. There really were not too many player personnel moves to be made for 2022. It's rock.
It's the rotation.
On Carlos Rodon
If you get a second, go to youtube.com and watch this video below of Rodon.
"Carlos Rodon 2021 Midseason Highlights"
This guy Rodon (a lefty starter with a 97 mph fastball) ain't no Tommy Glavine or Steven Matz lefties. The Mets have never had a lefty starter who could throw a devastating breaker and a 97 mph fastball. Never. Trust me because I go back to the Jerry Koosman era.
Robbie Ray is close though.
Watch it and see for yourself.
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