Boy, was this guy healthy with long hair, or what?
Jake deGrom was rocking an unprecedented sub-1.00 ERA for most of the 2021 season's first half, before finally inflating to a still-ultra-superior 1.08.
Unfortunately, arm tightness issues then caused him to miss the entire 2nd half of the season.
Which got me to thinking - which is always scary.
Just ask Mack.
Anyway, let's break down Jake's season:
Jake had an incredible start against Chicago where he fanned 8 in 3 innings but had to be pulled due to injury concerns.
In the 14 other starts, though, all were 5 innings or more, in which he threw 89 innings in 14 starts, averaging 84 pitches per start.
Which brings me to my thought du jour:
Had the Mets instituted a strict 5 inning limit on Jake, he would have thrown 19 fewer innings in those 14 starts.
Not a lot fewer, but perhaps enough of a lower workload to have avoided injury. Maybe it would not have made a difference, but maybe it would have. Only he knows for sure.
Maybe he could have gone the whole season that way.
The second half would have gone a whole lot better with him pitching for these NY Mets every 5th day.
So...5 innings max, whether ahead or behind, whether he has a no hitter going or not.
"Thanks, Jacob, please hand me the ball and now go take a shower."
Perhaps only let him go above 5 innings in a do-or-die last start of the season and in the playoffs.
I know, I'm second guessing, and hindsight is 20-20. Anyway...
If that seems too radical for you, let me go one step further with the radical thought process.
When I was a kid, and you were, too, complete games abounded.
Heck, between Bert Blyleven and Tom Seaver, they threw something like 120 complete game shutouts. And plenty of other complete games, too.
But these days, no one goes “complete-game-deep” into starts. Complete games (or starts anything close to 9 innings) are virtually extinct.
Yet, for starters, the 5 inning minimum to pick up a win remains unchanged since time immemorial.
Even before Mack was a wee toddler.
I would therefore propose changing that W/L threshold from 5 innings to 4 innings.
Why should a guy get pulled by an antsy manager after hurling just under 5 innings, like Tylor Megill did when he went 4 2/3 innings in his MLB debut against a pretty good country ball club like Atlanta, for instance, and not be eligible for the win? Don’t be cheap…give the guy a W.
Getting back to Jake, the club will no doubt want him to pitch at least long enough in games to be eligible for a W. So would Jake.
If he could get credited with a W by going just 4 innings, well, maybe, to preserve his incredible pitching ability, the Mets could strictly limit him to 4 innings.
Heck, in an era where bullpen starts have become fairly commonplace, why not this change to 4 inning being the W minimum?
Maybe Jake would get 33 four inning starts in during the season, then throw more innings in the playoffs, that way. Instead of 16 starts and a long IL stint.
Me? I would prefer 33 short starts to zero starts after July 7.
I wonder if Sandy Koufax would have pitched to 40 instead of retiring due to injury at 30, had he been limited to 4-5 innings instead of throwing an average of 339 regular season and playoff innings in each of 1963, 1965, and 1966? Heck, he might STILL be pitching.
Great pitchers can be fragile. Think about Pedro Martinez, about Johan Santana. Might they have lengthened their superior early careers with consistently shorter outings? I sure think so.
Thoughts? Please be brief. You’re limited to 4 sentences.
16 comments:
I asked a golfer to comment, and he said "FORE!"
Is it me or do pitchers today pitch less but get hurt more often?
It's not you. It's got to be the all-out emphasis on spin rate and velocity, and the work out regimens. I remember the first time I ever heard how much weight Thor deadlifted and leg-lifted, I thought: What is he, nuts? That sounds like an injury waiting to happen. Then, he did all that core work and pulled his oblique. Insane stuff.
Most overrated (and overpaid) position in baseball is the starting pitcher and yes,the ace. 5 innings means the BP must throw 4. The BP just on the basis of workload is almost as valuable as the 5 starters.
Bullpen never more important than in this current era. You can never have enough pen pitching.
What about Jake pitching like 6 innings but at 95 to 97 to save his arm and make it through the season. Who ever heard of a pitcher INCREASING his velosity at 33 and knowing he has to adjust at some point soon anyway do it now. I hope I don't get pulled for going to long but how about 6 inning starters and 3 inning relievers?
Good article TB
Sandy Koufax prematurely retired at age 30 due to left elbow arthritis often hereditary. The body attacks itself thinking that the arthritis inflammation is a foreign invader. There is internet discussion and articles on H2 benefits.
Sandy was an All Star six seasons and the NL MVP in '63. Is an awesome starting pitcher and phenomenal human being.
Great article in the NY Post today, "Chili Davis goes scorched earth: Mets are broken after ‘dismal’ stretch" By Mike Puma
Well worth a read. I was wondering would it be Possible/advisable to re-hire Chili for the batting coach opening of current? I just don't know the terms of his leaving is why I ask.
Gary, finesse = less stress = less distress, I'd think.
I would really be ready to head down one of two roads with the Mets:
1) All in
2) Rebuild
If rebuild, put out feelers to see what a Jake trade would bring in. Only do it if blown away.
Anonymous, please add a name, so we can have a better "conversation"
Yes, I saw that article. Why not bring Chili in as manager? Hitting coach? Fine. But I think "manager" would be really interesting.
He's always been willing to say what he means. He once beat Gooden when he was virtually unbeatable. His post-game quote when talking about the great Gooden? "He ain't G-d, man." No intimidating Chili D.
John. great post.
I have asked myself this same question a lot and never can come up with an answer for it.
If I had to guess, maybe the mph fastballs common these days has something to do with it. But there could be more too, like maybe the diet. Things grown in the ground (veggies and fruit) should maybe be more scrutinized for players who are pitchers. Vitamins.
Maybe the pitchers are not eating a balanced diet because they are young and we all understand this because we were probably the same exact way once.
Except Mack of course.
Good info on Sandy, but I think it was both the condition itself AND the excessive usage.
Hard to imagine if he threw 40% - 50% fewer innings that he would have been done at 30.
I ran a marathon once; only one other time had I run more than half a marathon distance (17 miles). If I stopped at the half marathon mark on race day, instead of the whole marathon distance, I would have felt great. Instead, doing the whole marathon, I couldn't go up and down stairs for 3 days without real pain.
Diet? Hey, you never know. It would be interesting for you to look to see if someone ever analyzed it that way. If so, let us know.
C'mon man. We are done with Mr Chilli.
Got to disagree with you. Ideally starters should pitch deeper into games reducing stress on the pen. DeGrom needs to learn how to better manage his pitching strategy.
Ray, not sure if Jake can do that. We will find out, though.
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