Paul Articulates – Constructing the Lineup

In my Thursday post, I described how the Mets have been scoring runs (and driving them in) at a much better pace than in prior seasons.  Their approaches at the plate, their new mix of talent, and the energy they get from each other are all factors.  A very strategic element of the game that influences run scoring is the construction of a lineup.  The Mets have done well so far this season with much credit to Buck Showalter, but I think they can do even better with some tweaks to the lineup construction. 

So what is involved in the strategy of constructing a lineup?  Here are the obvious basics:

• Understand the players’ capabilities – are they adept at getting on base; hitting behind a runner; hitting with power; hitting righties vs lefties; …etc.

• Characterize the players – on base guys; RBI guys; speedy guys; low production guys

• Arrange the players so people that are likely to get on base are in front of guys that can drive them in.  Don’t impede fast guys with slow guys in front of them.

Ok, it’s not that simple.  There are guys in slumps and guys with hot bats.  There are certain matchups that favor the batter and others that favor the pitcher – right vs left; fastball hitters vs off-speed hitters; and many others.  Managers like to mix right and left handed batters throughout the lineup so it becomes difficult for the other team to bring specialty relievers in to exploit consecutive same-handed batters.  The injury report may temporarily change how a player can be expected to perform.  Player rotations can change the mix you have to work with. 

Analytics play a much bigger part in the game today than in the “old days” – managers have data available on every split one could imagine.  Every time the team travels to a new town, there is a lot to process about opposing pitching staffs, current tendencies of your players, field dimensions, and even the weather report.

So let’s think about the current Mets team and how we would construct a lineup – and then after the trade deadline we can do it all over again with new puzzle pieces in the box.

1. The top of the lineup: The first two hitters should be capable of setting the table – they should be high on-base guys with good to great speed.  The Mets are fortunate to have several players to choose from that fit this bill.  Nimmo, Marte, Canha, Guillorme, and McNeil all have a .345 or better on-base percentage.  Nimmo is fast, Marte is VERY fast, and the others have average speed so it is not unusual to see Nimmo and Marte in the top two positions.

2. The middle of the lineup: The 3-4-5 hitters are RBI guys – they should have the ability to drive the ball (higher slugging percentage) and to hit in clutch situations.  It is also a benefit if they can hit to all fields so they can move the runners as necessary.  Buck has hit Lindor, Alonso, and Escobar in the 3-4-5 position often this year.  Lindor makes sense – he is speedy so he should be in front of the slower Alonso.  He also has the ability and the will to hit the ball the other way to move a runner or exploit the defense.  Alonso is the prototypical power guy, so cleanup is a natural position and he has filled it well, leading the league with 78 RBI going into the all-star break.  Escobar should not fill the 5 position this year.  In past seasons (and even in April) he was a good fit, but with his very high strikeout rate and low batting average, he is not moving the runners and not protecting Pete.  This spot should be McNeil – high average, hits to all fields, and has delivered in many important situations with RISP.

3. The bottom half: the arrangement of the 6-9 hitters depends very much on the talent available.  If you have more players that can drive in runs put them 6-7; if not then consider re-setting the table so they can be driven in by the top of the lineup.  It seems logical to put the worst hitter in the 9 position – but not always.  What if you have a speedy, high OBP guy that is just not as good as your 1-2 players?  I have put that guy 9th as a “wrap-around” leadoff hitter.  Once the game is underway the batting order is a continuous flow so the structure of the lineup should reflect that.  With the current Mets team, Buck has chosen to slot his light-hitting catchers at #9 and filled 6-7-8 with guys like Canha, Davis, Smith, Guillorme, and McNeil.  Not a bad choice, but batting McNeil 8th as he has done frequently this year does not make sense – he is in the top 5 in batting and as mentioned above can deliver with RISP.  

Once again recognizing that there are many factors that could change lineups on any given night, here is Paul’s ideal Mets lineup:

1. Nimmo(L) – gets on base, runs well

2. Marte(R) – gets on base, power to drive in Nimmo, speed to get in position for 3-4-5

3. Lindor(S) – speed when he’s on, hits behind runners to move them, 66 RBI so far this year

4. Alonso(R) – great power plus the ability to hit when you need it – 78 RBI so far this year

5. McNeil(L) – hits to all fields, delivers in the clutch, high average to protect Pete

6. Guillorme(L)/Canha(R) – on-base guys to keep a rally going, next best average to drive guys in

7. Davis(R)/Smith(L) – should be able to knock in some of the above but just not performing

8. Escobar(S) – low average, high K rate.  Will hit an occasional dinger.

9. McCann(R)/Nido(R) – low average; low OBP; low speed.

After the trade deadline, we will hopefully see some changes that improve productivity in the DH and Catcher slots.  Then we can see what Buck Showalter does with the lineup card.

What do you think?  I’m interested in reader feedback on the Mets lineups so far and where you would do it differently.