Tom Brennan - Is Mark Vientos Ready? Keep? Trade?

Mark Vientos a number of years back before he filled out.

How was your 4th?  Oh, you're taking the 5th?  

With the Mets in FIRST?  You have a right to remain silent, except you are required to intelligently respond to these articles.  It's in the Macks Mets Constitution.

Anyway the short answer to "Is Mark Vientos Ready?" is: 

Almost Yes...

With the Bat, Anyway.

It is a big bat, a beautiful bat, a strong bat.

He has, as I see it, 4 tasks in his remaining days in the minors:

1) Stay healthy, play more. Make your at-bat and offensive numbers huge. Only 138 games in the last season and a half. Far too many games missed. (More on the numbers, below).

2) Hit a lot better in the first month. Exclude the first month of 2021 and 2022 and the power #’s are prodigious - but the Lords of Baseball (not to be confused with the Lords of Flatbush) reminded me that all regular season months matter.

3) Continue to work on the fielding. Just 1B (16 games, 3 errors) and 3B (37 games, 9 errors) in 2022. He had 13 errorless games in the outfield last year, but none this year. Mark is clearly not a speedster, with just two career steals in close to 1,500 PAs, so that could explain the infield-only approach for Mark defensively in 2022. (He does, by the way, have a 60 rated arm, according to the Mets' prospect page).

4) Perhaps the biggest task, reducing the Ks. 70 in his first 55 games this year, 100 in 83 AA/AAA games last year.  That's too high.

In Mark‘s last 200 official bats of 2021, he crushed 21 home runs; this year in 194 at bats through Friday, July 1, he crushed 14 more home runs. If you do the math, you’ll see that over that span, in just under 400 of bats, Mark has hit a remarkable 35 home runs. 

That is a stunning number. A number that just cannot be overlooked for someone who is just 22 years old. To me, that’s the kind of guy I don’t trade, but rather keep.  How many home runs Mark will launch in his major league career, only time will tell. My early guess is 400 is possible.  

He hits home runs with authority and has home runs to all fields. Just look up his MILB page and watch his highlight videos.  Go ahead - I dare ya.  What you'll see, you'll like.

I think that Vientos is a future lethal long ball threat, possibly on the level Pete Alonso, if he cuts the Ks. Keep in mind that Pete, at Vientos' current age, was far behind Mark in climbing the ranks, still in A ball.

Part of the problem with Mr. Vientos is he has just been missing too many games for various reasons. He needs to be on the field for virtually every game, just like Pete did in the minors (once Pete got past his 2 broken hand injuries early on, anyway) in order for Mark to make an irrefutable case that he is in fact a Mets keeper.

Since the start of May, 36 games, 13 HRs, 27 RBIs, .292…multiple that by 4 and you get 144 games, 52 HRs, 108 RBIs...Dag nab, bro.

But 49 Ks in 36 games. Too many Ks. 

And too few games…just 55 of Syracuse’s 75 games this year.

But even including his bad-hitting first month of both 2021 and 2022, he has in 138 games had 508 at bats, 25 doubles, a triple, 39 HRs, 100 RBIs, and (yes) 170 Ks vs. 61 walks. As a 21-22 year old in the high minors, he has those power numbers.

And he is annihilating lefties this year: .300, with a .783 slug %, 9 HRs and 22 RBIs in 60 ABs.  Lethal.  Oddly, in 2021, he hit much better vs. righties than lefties, so 2022 is not necessarily a pattern.  Anyway...

Time for him to step it up another notch and start totally destroying AAA.  Hit like the last two months, but even better, and with fewer Ks.  He does Alvarez in the line up with him now, which ought to help.

I'm thinking of a similar player, size and speed-wise, Wilmer Flores, who had less power but made better contact.  Wilmer was an absolute RBI machine over a long stretch of AAA games.  Of course, part of that huge output was playing in hitter-joyful Las Vegas, but Willie Flo struck out only half as much as Mark.  Less homers, tons of doubles.  Mark needs a bit more Flores in his diet, and to cut back on Vitamin K.

To me, Vientos could get called up at any time, and in years past (although Dom Smith has shown some signs of life in recent games).  Back in seasons when the Mets’ offense was weak, he might have already gotten the call. Heck, if he were at this point of development in July 2021, maybe they promote him, skip Baez, and keep Crow.  

However, my guess is he will be either a September call up, or part of a blockbuster trade.  What do you think, dear reader?

Picture a line up with Alonso, Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, and Vientos.  Home Run Heaven, if you ask me.  Add in Alvarez and make power-hitting Ronny Mauricio an outfielder and add in currently hot Brett Baty, too, and it will be Homers Galore in Queens.  

19 year old sensation (in my mind, anyway) Junior Tilien told me confidentially he would be willing to play for that team (just joshing with you, folks). 

Also, that little voice in my head told me that with Brett Baty's large signing bonus, he hired a speedy housekeeper named Brett Butler (Bada-bump-bump).  That Butler is faster than the one in Mr. Deeds, they tell me.

METS: 

Nice 7-4 win. Nimmo and Lindor homered, and Taijuan Walker? 

Excellent again….he got the W. He has a 2.53 ERA over his last 11 starts and is 4-0 in his last 5 outings.  VERY nice.

MINORS: 

Alvarez AAA debut, 1-3, walk, RBI.

Montes de Oca was great…last 4 outings, 6 innings, 12 Ks.

Jankowski's first rehab game…1 for 2 and a walk.

Plummer and Lee combined for 0 for 8 and 4 Ks. Ouch.

You know what these last two guys, who were both called up from AAA this year, have combined to hit in AAA?  55 for 270 (.204, Plummer at .219, Lee at .194), with 101 Ks and 33 walks.  Now THAT sure is pretty ugly, wouldn't you say?  Anyway, moving on...

Tony Dibrell excellent short rehab opener outing for Lucie. So far, 2.2 innings since returning, 1 walk. Good sign, even against Low A hitters.

Righty Jeffrey Colon (1-0, 3.17, 32 Ks in 25 IP) was excellent for 6+ innings after Mr. Dibs, and picked up the W.

Brooklyn limited to 3 hits, and promoted Alex Ramirez went 0-5, but all outs involved contact. The Cyclones are hitting .216.  Maybe Ramirez will help that.