Paul Articulates – Looking down the road

The Mets played their 100th game of the season last night, and that means that they have 62 games remaining.  They maintained their 3 game lead over the Atlanta Braves and 9.5 games over the Philadelphia Phillies.  Given the strength of those two teams, the Mets have done well this year to position themselves for the race to the finish.  

Mets fans are optimistic about the road ahead, as we have our pitching back, finally boasting a lineup of Scherzer, deGrom, Bassitt, Walker, and Carrasco every five games, with David Peterson there to fill on double-header days.  That also allows for the bullpen to be embellished with not only trade deadline acquisitions, but also Trevor Williams, returning Trevor May, and by mid-August Tylor Megill.

Baseball is anything but predictable, so even with the renewed pitching strength and trade-deadline acquisitions; anything can happen in the remaining two months and four days. Sometimes it matters who you play, who is hot, and who your competition is facing.  So today I will take a look at the remaining schedules (data as of Friday night) to give some insight into how things stack up.

As of Friday night, the Mets had 63 games remaining.  33 are home and 30 are away. It breaks down as:

• 35 games against division rivals (12 ATL, 9 WSN, 7 PHI, 7 MIA)

• 16 games against NL central teams (7 PIT, 3 CIN, 3 CHC, 3 MIL)

• 7 games against the NL west (4 COL, 3 LAD)

• 5 games against American League teams (3 OAK, 2 NYY)

Of those remaining games, 27 will be played against rivals that are currently above .500 (NYY, ATL, MIL, PHI) and 36 will be played against sub-.500 teams.  The weighted average of the winning percentage for their remaining opponents is .482. That seems to bode well for the Orange & Blue.  Of course those division games and particularly the 12 Atlanta games will have a huge impact on the standings when the playoffs roll around.

The Mets are currently scoring 4.67 runs per game and tout a staff ERA of 3.59.  Their opponents have a weighted average of 4.32 runs per game and give up 4.54 runs per game.  One can only expect that with their full pitching staff back and a little more pop from the DH position that they can increase their statistical advantage over their rivals.

Speaking of their rivals, who do the Braves and Phillies have left?  How about those other wild card contenders the Padres and Cardinals?  Yes, I looked them up too.  It looks like the Cardinals have the easiest remaining schedule while the Braves have the toughest.

The Braves, who are currently scoring 4.74 runs/game and tout a 3.65 ERA had 61 games left with only 26 of those at home.  The weighted average of the winning percentage for their opponents is .505.  Their opponents are scoring 4.3 runs per game and giving up 4.3 runs per game. 

• 37 games against division rivals (12 NYM, 6 WSN, 9 PHI, 10 MIA)

• 8 games against the NL west (3 COL, 3 SFG, 2 ARI)

• 6 games against NL central teams (3 PIT, 3 STL)

• 10 games against American League teams (2 OAK, 3 HOU, 3 SEA, 2 BOS)

The Phillies, who are currently scoring 4.66 runs/game and tout a 3.80 ERA had 62 games left with 30 of those at home.  The weighted average of the winning percentage for their opponents is .476.  Their opponents are scoring 4.275 runs per game and giving up 4.581 runs per game. 

• 36 games against division rivals (9 ATL, 11 WSN, 7 NYM, 9 MIA)

• 15 games against NL central teams (5 PIT, 7 CIN, 3 CHC)

• 6 games against the NL west (3 SFG, 3 ARI)

• 5 games against American League teams (2 TOR, 3 HOU)

The Padres, who are currently scoring 4.38 runs/game and tout a 3.75 ERA had 61 games left, with 34 at home.  The weighted average of the winning percentage for their opponents is .499.  Their opponents are scoring 4.48 runs per game and giving up 4.42 runs per game. 

• 36 games against division rivals (12 LAD, 9 SFG, 7 ARI, 8 COL)

• 10 games against the NL east (7 WSN, 3 MIA)

• 3 games against NL central teams (3 STL)

• 12 games against American League teams (2 MIN, 2 CLE, 3 CHW, 2 SEA, 3 KCR)

The Cardinals, who are currently scoring 4.6 runs/game and tout a 3.85 ERA had 62 games left, with 32 at home.  The weighted average of the winning percentage for their opponents is .463.  Their opponents are scoring 4.34 runs per game and giving up 4.76 runs per game. 

• 35 games against division rivals (7 MIL, 9 PIT, 11 CHC, 8 CIN)

• 15 games against the NL west (6 COL, 3 LAD, 3 ARI, 3 SDP)

• 9 games against NL east teams (6 WSN, 3 ATL)

• 3 games against American League teams (3 NYY)

That is a pile of information, but it helps you understand what is down the road.  The Mets have a favorable schedule ahead in terms of opponents records and number of home games, but have 12 difference makers against the Braves.  Who gets hot and who gets hurt will have a lot to do with the end game.  Let’s Go Mets!