I have to say that I am very disappointed that Jacob deGrom did not pitch in the Mets-Yankees series. There are many reasons form my disappointment. First there is that slippery calendar of hope. Back in the spring we heard he would be gone for 1-2 months. Then it was late June, which turned into early July and the all-star break. Now he “needs” another minor league start to stretch out. Ugh! Another downer is the fact that we know he has indicated the preference to opt out at the end of the season, meaning that there are very few starts between when he comes back and the inevitable bidding war for his continued services. There is also this ominous specter in our rear-view mirror getting closer every day called the Atlanta Braves – can’t we move any faster?
I’m not going to deny reality. He has been hurt and he’s trying to heal; trying to get back into that tuned muscle memory machine that could throw the ball at 100mph exactly where he wants to throw it. It takes time and it takes a lot of throwing to get there. What puzzles me is why he has to do that last “tuning” start in AAA. The Mets are facing the New York Giants this week (OK, only some of them are giants and they call themselves the Yankees but they have won 66 games already) with the Braves right on their heels. Couldn’t we have had Jake’s 60-or-so pitches in the middle innings of one of the games? Imagine a solid, 5-inning Peterson start, followed by three innings of deGrom, and closed by Edwin Diaz. For the same 60 pitches, there is a much different impact for the Mets. I’m not the pitching coach or the medical staff, but that approach seems superior to a 3-4 inning stint in Syracuse.
Jake will be back when the Mets’ staff says he’s ready, so enough of my venting. Let’s turn to the focus of this post – what should we do when Jacob deGrom opts out at the end of the year? First let’s consider some information:
• Fact: on July 28th, deGrom will be 34 years, 39 days old. Opinion: that’s old for a pitcher
• Fact: on July 28th, deGrom will have not pitched in a MLB game for 386 days. Opinion: that’s a long time to be injured.
• Fact: deGrom signed a $137.5M contract in March 2019. Since then he has pitched 364 innings in 59 games. Opinion: he no longer physically able to provide 200 inn/yr.
• Fact: deGrom pitched over 200 innings in each year from 2017 to 2019 (top 5 IP in NL each year). During that period, he had two short stints on the 10-day IL. Prior to 2017 he was on the IL once (2014). Opinion: before recent injuries, he was very physically reliable.
• Fact: deGrom has pitched 91 starts since the beginning of the 2018 season, compiling a 1.91 ERA and 774 strikeouts in 581 innings. Opinion: he is the best pitcher in baseball when healthy.
• Fact: per Sportrac.com, the Mets have the second highest payroll in MLB at $259M for 2022.
• Fact: the Mets signed 37-year-old pitcher Max Scherzer to a 3-year $130M contract in November 2021. Opinion: The Mets will spend top dollar for a top pitcher if that’s what it takes to win.
Given all this information and much more that we don’t know about his physical well-being, the Mets front office will have a difficult decision to make in the off-season. Despite being paid roughly $27.5M for the year he was on the IL, deGrom will opt out of his current contract to test the market on the best deal his agent can find. His loyalty to the Mets will only be an intangible factor as he decides among the offers he gets from several teams. The Mets leadership will have to decide between spending a lot of money ($40-$50M/yr) to retain the “best pitcher in baseball” and spending that money to solve several other pending roster issues like the free agency of Nimmo, Diaz, Bassitt, Ottavino, Lugo, May, and others.
The information laid out above paints a picture of a once-healthy pitcher who is arguably the most dominant in baseball when healthy but whose health is suddenly very questionable as he moves further into his mid-30s. He will command $40-$50M in free agency on a multiple year deal. The competitors for his talent will include the teams that the Mets would likely see in the playoffs and/or World Series if they can get that far without him.
Would you sign him?
Those who say, “YES!” will sacrifice most of the 2023 free agents above and would likely have to unload some payroll to afford a Diaz contract (McCann, Escobar). What they get in return is a still-dominant pitching staff which is essential to a deep playoff run. Think of a 3-game playoff series with both deGrom and Scherzer starting a game; or a 7-game series with those two factoring in 4 of the 7 games.
Those who say, “NO!” will argue that he wouldn’t be there in the playoffs anyway – he would be on the IL. We would rather rely on other free agents that the $40-$50M could buy. This camp runs the risk of facing deGrom in the playoffs (Dodgers) or World Series (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels), but may have an easier time getting there if the money was spent on run-scoring.
The missing piece of information in this decision is how much and how well deGrom pitches in the second half of 2022. If he stays healthy and dominates through the regular season and deep into the playoffs, the “YES” votes will accumulate. If he goes down again for some other injury, even for a short amount of time, financial whiz Steve Cohen will say, “risk-off” and deGrom will be wearing another uniform next year.
11 comments:
I think we need to see how it goes for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.
There are a wide range of possible conclusions, largely based on how he performs.
It's a wait-and-see situation.
Paul,
If deGrom chooses to leave does the Mets get a compensation draft choice?
Good breakdown. I think Jake’s days as a Met are numbered.
I think the Giants are a real possibility to sign deGrom. They have money to spend and a good track record of keeping pitchers healthy
DJ, The Mets would only get a compensation pick if they gave him a Qualifying Offer (QO) and he did not accept it and signed with another team. If he opts out of his contract through a provision of that contract, I don't believe the Mets will get anything, but I'm not 100% sure.
Unless Jake breaks down again, I say do whatever it takes to resign him.
Again, to repeat, it all depends on how he pitches this season.
If he looks different, if he misses a turn or two or three, requires extra rest -- that's a cautionary note than, say, roaring through the season and winning playoff games with dominant performances.
He's going to want length and as much AAV as Max from the Mets. I think the organization needs a lot of reassurance before it goes that distance. "Not breaking down" might not be good enough.
Money could be spent on Correa,Turner,Boegarts….There’s more than one way to skin a cat and more than one way spend 200 million dollars.
Obviously, IF deGrom comes back this year is big, but of equal importance is how he pitches - not results, but if he shows that he can dial back and still be a great pitcher. As I understand he was topping off about 96-97 in his 7/27 re-hab start. That is promising. I think if he comes back and insists on throwing every pitch 99 or 100, I'll pass on him long term.
Paul makes some great points - he is already 34 (yeah, Max is 38) and he hasn't pitched in the majors for over a year. Really hard wear on the shoulder and elbow for two months this year could really spell trouble for the future.
Drew Smith has been placed on the 15 day disabled list with a right lat strain.
Dom for Gallo,how does that sound?
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