Tom Brennan - What the "Last 15" Tells Us: PANIC?

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE HONEYMOON ENDS?

The Mets swung 3 "NON-BLOCKBUSTER" hitter deals at the trade deadline:

Daniel Vogelbach - to hit against righties

Tyler Naquin - to hit against righties

Darin Ruf - to hit against lefties

Each of the three were brought in as hired guns because they were veterans who hit against the opposite side well (left v. righty, righty v. lefty).

Early returns seemed strong for each.  But it doesn't stay early forever, as Travis Jankowski found out after his fine Mets debut early this year was followed by a complete inability to hit.  

So, for the 3 more recent acquired hitters, what about after their honeymoon phase?

The results of the trio have dried up.  Honeymoon is over.

I looked at their MLB pages for their last 15 games stats.  Wasn't pretty, not by no means.

Naquin: 2 for 24, no RBIs, 2 walks, 15 Ks - downright awful

Ruf: 5 for 37, 3 RBIs, 3 walks, 12 Ks - downright awful

Vogelbach: 5 for 31, 4 RBIs, 11 walks, 13 Ks - not terrible, but not great

Now, Max Scherzer has weakness in his same side that had been injured, so he pulled himself after 5 innings last night, hopefully early enough to avoid the IL this time.  

That is disturbing, a day after Trevor May went down.  And with the Braves winning yet again, to draw within 2 games.  And just as sadly, Brett Baty gets hurt a few days ago, and his lefty bat (not great, but OK as a Met) got shelved.

I know that teams like to avoid panic moves at this late juncture.  So, what to do?

I'd panic.

I'd release Ruf and Naquin, and call up Vientos and Dom Smith.

Why?

Well, Vientos hits lefties really well.  The Mets just faced 3 lefty starters and all Ruf managed was a sac fly.  My guess is Ruf's washed up, and we would have been much better off keeping JD Davis.  Vientos has slumped a bit of late, perhaps due to feeling a bit depressed at seeing the "everyone but Mark" call ups, so it is not the best time to call him up when his bat just cooled for a few games, but panic impacts timing.  Do it.

I certainly think Vientos can do better than Ruf's "last 15 games" production.

Dom Smith has been an absolute enigma, but Naquin has been utterly awful after looking great his first few games as a Met.  Smith, since his demotion, has not torn it up but he is 24 for 84 with 13 walks and only 12 Ks (and disappointingly just 3 doubles and 2 HRs), which overall is decent.  Much better than Naquin.

The relentless Braves won yet again, with young, awesome pitching, while old Max is showing signs that 38 is a treacherous age for the health of fireballers.  

Just a 2 game lead over the Brats now.  Time to panic, if Naquin and Ruf don't do something to warrant the Mets' trust TODAY. If they fail, time to release them (or if Naquin has options, send him down).

After all, when you have a line up with hitters like McCann, Ruf, Naquin, and Vogelbach doing what they have recently been doing, which is next to nothing, your entire offense can easily downshift, as it has recently.  

The Braves, smelling blood in the water, will be all too happy to stomp on the accelerator and blow right by.

If Max is out?  Bring up Joey Lucchesi or Tylor Megill - or the Banker, Nate Fisher. I'd prefer Megill, but he has just one (excellent) inning of rehab, so that would be radically fast.  Lucchesi not far ahead of him with 5 innings in St Lucie in multiple short rehab outings.  But Joey might be ready enough, and Trevor Williams could start.   If not, please, no more Adonis Medina (awful last night) AAAA dudes, who are not the way to win a pennant.  They are the way to lose a pennant.

Nogosek would be perhaps the best alternative to Megill, Naquin, and Fisher.  He did OK as a Met this year, and has a 1.26 ERA in 36 innings in AAA this season.

To the, "we shoulda gotten Juan Soto" folks, he is hitting just .241 in 25 games with SD, with 3 HRs and just 6 RBIs, in a truly puzzling season for him.  Basically, Dom Smith numbers.  Vogelbach as a Met has about the same number of plate appearances as Soto as a Pod, virtually the same OBP, and has 4 HRs, 15 RBIs.   I'm good with him for the rest of 2022.

Do I want the Mets to call up Vientos for Ruf?  Yes.  

Do I want the Mets to call up Dom Smith for Naquin?  Not really, but do we have a choice to not panic?

I guess the choice could be Daniel Palka, but he has (after a long hot stretch) gone 4 for his last 31, so no, not Palka, it has to be Dom Smith.

Thoughts?