(thru Friday’s results)
Observations - Starters (Pt. 2)
Last week, we started this look at the starters in the chain. We projected only two SP1-2 candidates at this point, Blade Tidwell and Christian Scott.
First of all, there is a lot of exciting starter talent from Binghamtom to the FCL team team, but it is impossible for me to project players that haven’t first mastered both the AAA and AA level. I have learned over the years that pitchers simply face too much filler roster players at mid to lower levels. They need to show me more before I jump on the bandwagon.
I still remember what Josh Thole told me when he hit the AA level. He told me: “Mack, remember when we use to stand around and talk about the one or two great players on the team we were going to play against in Savannah? Well, up here, they are all like that.”
That being said, I’m currently not excited about anyone at the AAA level. No names needed. My thoughts, That’s the way it is here.
My next starter to keep both eyes on would be current AA-Binghamton 6-3 RHSP, Brandon Sproat. The Mets didn’t rush this 23-year old. They love him so much, they drafted him twice. As of 5/19, his total minor league ERA was 0.89. That’s just stupid. The downside is this is only his first organized year and he only has pitched in seven games (six starts). Everything needs to slow down now and let him pitch the rest of the season at the AA level. You can start him at AAA next spring and, who knows, he could be Queens bound by mid-season 2025. Too early to project his rotation position.
Next, for me, would be Brooklyn 22/yr old, RHSP/DH Nolan McLean. He was promoted to AA-Binghamton this week to fill the slot created when Tidwell was promoted to AAA-Syracuse. This is not a rush job. He is a 22 year old college boy who has played much more baseball than the 16-year old DSL kids that sign the same year. Is he a legit 2-way player? Well, so far his pitching is well above average. And, yes Tom, he does strike out but so do most sluggers using higher launch angles. Let’s let him finish the season at this level, take a long look at what he accomplished this year, and THEN, and only then, determine what his future looks like in Queens.
One affiliate level down is another of my favorites, Jonah Tong. Most of us are all still trying to decide if this phenom is for real. He came out of nowhere this season to put up unbelievable numbers, which have tailed off a little. Still, as of Monday, at two levels, he has a 0.86-ERA in 7-G, 6-ST. Like McLean, I need the whole 2024 season to determine where I see his future, but I do have to say that I REALLY like this Canuck.
Past these guys, there are others that I thing could turn into a viable rotation piece someday. particulrly like Joel Diaz, who finished rehabbing this week for the FCL team. Dazzled in the DSL, then had a dreadful season that lead to TJS, he’s still only 20 years old and his ceiling is very high… Tyler Stuart is proving one year does not make a prospect but he’s still on my list… so is Kade Morris who raised some eyebrows down in Port St. Lucie and earned himself a bump up to Brooklyn this past week… new to the list is Brooklyn’s Douglas Orellana who is putting up outstanding numbers so far this season…. and two youngins’ with Franklin Gomez in St. Lucie and Jorge De Leon for the FCL Mets.
Lastly, Binghamton’s Joander Suarez is still hanging around.
One final thought after yesterday's game... the current Mets seem to be inventing a new level of disappointment every game they play. Management has to take a deep breath here and realize that Plan B hasn't worked. Meaning, it's time to begin the blow up.
Roster Moves -
Mets -
Released IF Joey Wendle
RHRP Yohan Ramírez has been traded to Los Angeles (NL) in exchange for cash.
RHSP Tylor Megill has been reinstated from the IL
Syracuse -
Claimed RHRP Ty Adcock from Detroit
RHRP Grant Hartwig was optioned to Syracuse
Promoted SP Blade Tidwell from AA-Binghamton
Promoted OF Rylan Thomas from AA-Binghamton
Mets returned SP Joey Lucchese
RHP Troy Miller - Transferred from AA to AAA Syracuse - then placed on development list
Signs RHRP Matt Festa
Binghamton -
RHP Justin Jarvis - Transferred from AAA to AA Binghamton
RHP Hunter Parsons - Transferred from AAA to AA Binghamton - then placed on Development List
RHP Paul Gervase - Reinstated from 7-Day IL
Promoted SP/DH Nolan McLean from A+ Brooklyn
Promoted OF Omar De Los Santos from A+ Brooklyn
Brooklyn -
INF Mateo Gil - Transferred from AA to A+ Brooklyn
St. Lucie -
SP Jorge De Leon promoted from FCL Mets
OF Willy Fanas promoted from FCL Mets
SP Joel Diaz completed his FCL rehab and was assigned to A+ St. Lucie
Prospect Ratings Changes -
St. Lucie SP Jack Wenninger from BLUE prospect to BLACK
Brooklyn SP Douglas Orellana from BLUE prospect to RED
New Met -
RHRP Matt Festa signed and assigned to AAA-Syracuse
31/yrs 6-1/195 Brooklyn born
Drafted in 7th round of 2016 draft by Seattle
East Stroudsburg Univ.
Released by Padres on May 17th. Ha d career 4.32-ERA and
25.3% strikeout rate
2020 - elbow injury leading to TJS
This year a 46% ground ball rate
RHRP Ty Adcock 27yrs
Claimed from Tigers
2020 - Lost COVID season
2021 - Lost to TJS
2023 - 20.2-IP 1.74 29.3 K-rate 7% walk rate
Fastball averages 96.6
Minor League Injury Report – May 2024 -
https://www.prospects1500.com/milb/minor-league-injury-report-may-2024/
The Mets have two important prospects that are recovering from their own injuries, and both of them have some uncertain futures.
Shortstop Jett Williams received a cortisone shot earlier this month in his wrist, with the hope that he can start swinging a bat. Williams has yet to do that, but keep in mind that injury updates in the Minor Leagues are few and far between.
As for Drew Gilbert, the team will begin a running progression program at the end of this month (or early June) in an effort to see exactly where he is in his recovery. He has yet to play in a game since injuring his hamstring at the beginning of April.
Brooklyn Cyclones @BKCyclones
An impressive Brooklyn debut for Kade Morris.
6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 85 pitches/56 strikes
Mets prospect part of a growing Flores network -
https://www.mlb.com/news/saul-garcia-wilmer-flores-baseball-family-network?s=03
Nine years after Flores endeared himself to fans at the 2015 Trade Deadline, the longtime big leaguer’s first cousin, Saul García is starting to make some waves in the organization. García, a pitcher, made MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Mets prospects for the first time in the offseason, clocking in at No. 29.
SNY Mets @SNY_Mets
The Braves have signed Joey Wendle
Florida Complex League Mets @FCLMets
La Mamba is moving up to the St Lucie Mets!
Taking the mound for the first time since 2021, Jorge De León was dominant in three starts.
Jorge’s FCL ranks:
• 1st in Whiff% (56.9%)
• 2nd in K% (51.6%)
• 5th in Chase% (37.4%)
• 7th in FB velo (95.6)
Dallas DeVries - SportSpyder @dallasrpi
Career vs Current OPS #Mets:
Narvaez: -317
Lindor: -191
McNeil: -171
Alonso: -100
Marte: -100
Taylor: -82
Nimmo: -50
Martinez: -50
Bader: -41
Stewart: +11
Nido: +67
Baty: .611 OPS...
Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo
Since May 2, Brett Baty is striking out in 42 percent of his plate appearances. Why this could be another crossroads for the young third baseman:
Christopher Soto @SotoC803
Man....this is setting up so well for Ronny Mauricio to come into spring training next year and push Baty right out the door.
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
Team leaders/trailers in Defensive Runs Saved:
1. Dodgers 35
2. Blue Jays 29
3. Royals 28
4. O's 21
Guardians 21
30. White Sox -30
29. Mets -28
28. Marlins -18
27. Twins -13
26. A's -12seball
16 comments:
Pitching prospects that have really disappointed are Vasil and Hamill, they have been pretty horrible in Syracuse this year
Two years ago I had them as sure fire starter.They have regressed since then to a point that the best we may get out of these guys going forward are one inning pen pieces
Goes to cement what I have for years. You just don't know till you know
Mack, great summary:
The Mets' defense is indefensible...but I still want Vientos to play. His bat is entirely defensible.
Baty may have saved his booty yesterday with his HR and walk - at least temporarily. High whiffs plus low power is a nasty result. Two hot and hungry alternatives to call up besides Iglesias (if Baty were demoted) are Luke Ritter (HR, double, 5 ribbies last night) or Wyatt Young (on base 48% the last 28 games and he is totally anti-error).
Hey, Acuna had 4 hits last night in AAA in a 9-6 win and is at .250 - his one out though with the bags full was ball one, fat strike one looking, and 2 swinging strikes. If they had him taking on 1-0, SHAME ON THEM. But Acuna is showing real signs that if the Mets go full rebuild in the next several weeks, he may be ready enough to come up.
The pen is in a state of collapse - Stearns is making a million moves, now try one more - summon Eric Orze. Sean Reid-Foldy can fold for another team. If you can get cash for Yohan Ramirez, someone will do the same for Mr. Foldy. Once off the Mets, Foldy can become another team's ace closer.
Orze finished a shaky pre-Setember 2023 with 9.2 Sept innings in AAA of 2 hit, no run, 20 K pitching. He started this frigid season wild, in 2 bad outings. 4 earned runs in 2.2 innings. After that, 12 hits in 20.2 innings and 28 Ks, 6 earned runs. Maybe he'll be another Reed Garrett type and give them some stellar outings.
I like to play with stats, so if you start at Sept 1 last year with Orze and drop those 2 frigid games in late March and early April on account of numbing cold, he has thrown in AAA 31 innings, fanned 48 and allowed 14 hits. I'd give that a try.
That drop in Mets' OPS shows that many Mets hitters press, which is how losing streaks mushroom (at least one reason).
The Mets aren't just falling - their little missile downward is jet-propelled. They haven't won 40 yet, so I guess 40-120 is still possible.
Many good pitchers in the pipeline. Dom Hamel was simply horrible again yesterday and I can no longer consider him red or blue - he perfectly fits your description of success in A ball not continuing against better hitters. He NEEDS TO GO BACK TO AA.
And Suarez in his last two AA outings has not done well, so maybe there is logic as to why he is still there and not in AAA. Or, it could just be 2 weak outings.
One guy to add to "pitcher blue" is lefty Felipe de la Cruz. Last night for Brooklyn, a gem:
2 hits and a walk and no runs over 6 innings and fanned THIRTEEN. He is 23, but maybe something just clicked. He has 280 Ks in 229 career innings.
I love Nolan McLean - he seems fearless. He has fanned 41 times in 86 times up but has 12 XBH and 15 RBIs in 79 at bats and is 4 for 12 in his premature hitting debut in AA, only being in AA because he's pitching very well. He's holding his own, where if he wasn't a pitcher, he'd have started out hitting in St Lucie and perhaps still be there, but he is taking on the Pepsi Porch Challenge.
Matt Rudick in AA is up to .396 OBP after a very slow start, and has 26 hits and 22 walks and HBPs in his last 24 games!! I'll do the match here - that is twice a game for a long stretch, and he had similar long stretches of .500 OBP in Brooklyn in 2022 and AA in 2023.
JT Schwartz had 4 hits, to rise to .260, but as a 1B, having just 1 HR and 6 other XBH in his second year in AA in 139 plate appearances is a career stunter unless fixed.
Somewhere, Jett and Gilbert are in sick bay. Both expect to be ready to play again by age 40.
Hamel has a chance to be like Colin McHugh. Similar stuff, let’s wait. Vasil is a bullpen guy in that he is like Megill and struggles after three innings. Don’t give up yet.
Tom, Acuna’s .250 is .190 in Queens. He has to get better with chase. Baty will be good - somewhere else. And that sucks!
I too love the de la Cruz game but that is all it is at this point. A game.
I'm reminded of a guy that I saw throw brilliant games over the past three seasons only to be surrounded by clunkers. I had him as a BLUE prospect about three or four times. Only this seasons seems to be the one that he is putting it all together.
Douglas Orellana
Let's give Felipe 3-4 outings and see what he has
Mack, good for me on Felipe. But did see a few of his K pitches. His fastball had real giddyup. Nice for a lefty.
Gus, I'd still demote Hamel. His AAA in 2024 has been a few good outings, the rest being pretty disastrous. Regroup in AA.
Gus
The 2025 outfield is extremely fluid right now and may not develop until 2026
Still, I would move Marte and try to fill in the gaps keeping only Nimmo and Tyrone Taylor
Mack and Tom great stuff and agree we really need to move past the "they'll get hot soon" nonsense or playing to the back of their baseball cards because as Yogi once said "it's getting late early". You really have to go back to the loveable sixty's to even match the uglyness of the past 2 weeks as it falls under "you just can't make this stuff up" so now what do they do? In most past seasons it's the June swoon this year it's already here so line them up and get going with the changes. I hate that Vientos didn't start y/day because JD should have been on the bench or are they for whatever reason still screwing with the kid. Nice article on Jeremy Rodriguez who we got for Tommy Pham on FanSided so maybe we can finally win on one of these deals.... maybe. I'd love to know what SC is thinking right now and by the way Mack you should have spot on SNY's baseball night in NY who should I call?
Gary
Lots of domino's have to fall
If you move Pete, I really think Vientos ' future should be on first
More reason to send Baty down to get regular reps. Who knows? Remember it took two reboots for Mark to come back strong
If not Baty than Mauricio on third
Then who plays second if you move Jeff?
Cue Van Morrison song
Tom, Hamel has no business in AA. Let the young man learn his lessons in AAA, and learn consistency that will help him try to have a MLB career. The minors are for learning from failure and showing glimpses of talent, which Hamel certainly has done. Like I said, remember Colin McHugh and how many others we have had to see do well after the Mets offloaded them.
Vientos is sitting again today! Ridiculous. I get letting Baty play today after yesterday's bomb, but sit Martinez and let Vientos DH. he hits a bomb and sits for two games? Same old Mets.
Both Baty and Vientos need every day play
Send Baty back
I agree Gus. Sending him to AA clogs up developing starters there and below
Need 5 starter in Syracuse
Plenty of room for him to keep pitching there
JD has proven to be a poor fit.
Jon, I agree completely with you. The Mets continue to be a vacation spot for veterans.
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