If you want to start a vociferous argument within the Mets fan community, start advocating for a starting rotation when the current crop of injured folks make their way back. Kodai Senga is a given. No one is really arguing that point. However, others seem to feel that Tylor Megill and David Peterson are the righty/lefty equivalent of Seaver and Koosman.
Are they watching some other duo of mediocrity? I do recall seeing a number of promising games by both of them, but no matter how you slice and dice their numbers they are emergency depth starters at best or 5th starters on a non-contending team. There´s no nice way to represent 4.50 and worse ERAs for guys who are not just having a poor week or poor month. This output is over the course of YEARS.
Granted, starting pitching has been nearly as big a problem for the Mets as hitting. Adrian Houser is single handedly making even the most jaded fans who would rather take the mound themselves than see more of Megill and Peterson think that maybe these two aren´t so bad after all. Take a look at the long term numbers on Houser and it would appear he is the one having a short term hiccup in an otherwise acceptable 5th starter career.
As a pitcher for his career he has allowed opposing hitters to bat .255 against him. While that is not great, it is not exactly horrific either. By contrast last season the recovering David Peterson gave up an opponent batting average of .287. Megill was slightly better at .282, but if you take a moment to consider the Mets lineup and how many of their hitters are .282 or better you can quickly see that neither of the IL would-be starting pitchers is exactly prime time material.
While all three hurlers have recently faced live batters, it is Kodai Senga who would likely represent the removal of Adrian Houser from the starting rotation. By contrast, Senga was pitching last season like an All Star allowing other teams to hit a paltry .208 against him. Obviously he belongs in the number one slot in the rotation when he proves his shoulder is healthy enough to return to regular strain every 5th or 6th day.
The same rose-colored glasses fans who heap praise on Megill and Peterson are already beating the drums to get Butto out of New York City. Yes, he has given up some runs in each of his past two starts. That performance pushed his ERA for the season to a theoretically miserable 2.86. When have Megill and Peterson approached a sub-3.00 ERA? And for the record, last year Butto pitched to a .212 batting average against and this year it is a miniscule .160. Methinks the younger Butto deserves a longer look than the more experienced pair of emergency starters.
Of course, a similar question arises about the club´s offensive struggles. Obviously the veterans are safe as they have track records to back up their slow starts. Less certain are the futures of D.J. Stewart, Joey Wendle and Brett Baty. Given Wendle’s positional versatility and career batting prowess as a respectable replacement hitter, he is likely safe. Baty and Stewart, however, are at best on the bubble.
Brett Baty is a career major league hitter over 145 games with a .217 batting average, 12 HRs and 48 RBIs. While those numbers are not great, they do not represent the level of performance you want from a starter.
Stewart has more power for sure. Unfortunately that is about all he can offer the club other than a pretty good eye at the plate. Getting on base is a good thing but running like Daniel Vogelbach is not. Neither is fielding like Todd Hundley in the outfield. His career batting average is only 1 point higher than Baty and this season he has been hovering at or below the Mendoza line.
Not to reiterate the entirety of the Wednesday column, but Mr. Vientos has had 55% of the ABs of Brett Baty during his career, trails him by a single home run despite that 45% gap and is hitting at the same low .200s level. The difference is that he was on fire in Syracuse and is hitting a tidy .429 in his three game trial subbing for Starling Marte during his absence. So the question is whether or not the club might be better off getting Vientos´ bat into the lineup regularly rather than feeding more opportunities to Baty or Stewart?
These questions when answered properly might help decide which side of .500 the club´s record will be as the season progresses.
7 comments:
I wonder how much Peterson’s hip was affecting his location in seasons past before his surgery. I wondered the same thing with Travis d’Arnaud. TDA post-surgery has been a highly effective big league catcher.Maybe Peterson takes a step up, now that he is healed.
I am anxious to see Megill healthy with his sporker. But he has to be more durable and consistent.
Houser? I’ve seen enough. His WHIP is close to 1.50 over the last 3 seasons, and 1.84 this year. I am done.
Scott is promoted for Saturday’s start. The makeover may be beginning now.
Baty has a .304 slug % in 29 games. Buddy’s back.
I say what immediate move I want to see happen - today - in my 9 AM article.
Megill and Peterson have shown flashes of excellence over their years with the Mets. Their biggest issues are health and consistency. It is not good to give up on them because they would then end up excelling on some other NL East team just to haunt the Mets - it has happened many times before.
That said, you just can't keep running guys out there with 4.50 ERAs and 1.5+ WHIPs and expect to win ballgames. Relegate them to long relief with short leashes and start the ones that perform. Motivate through competition. I am encouraged that Christian Scott gets a call-up because that also drives competition from within - it sends a message to all the inconsistent starters that a new wave is coming. So perform or be left behind. David Stearns appears to be taking a very decisive role with his personnel.
I do not see Joey Lucchesi mentioned above. MLB career numbers include a WHIP of 1.27 and an ERA of 4.07. I believe that he would be an immediate upgrade to the starting rotation. It was written that he did not come ready to spring training. He seems to be doing quite well in Syracuse in the early going.
(My belief is that both he and Mark Vientos will be moved by the trade deadline).
Steve, I agree on Vientos. I'm a big Vientos fan but it seems the Mets are not. I think they feel his fielding is inadequate and the DH spot is taken by Martinez. I'll miss Vientos if/when he's traded, but it will be best for his career, in my opinion if he is moved to a team that will give him a legitimate shot as an everyday DH.
Martinez is probably gone at the end of the season. Baty, while much better than expected at 3B, has been streaky with the bat.
It won't hurt Mark to play evry day at both 1B and 3B upstate. If he shows his worth, there'll be a spot for him.
Yes, he'll get more opps this yeear if traded. Or he could do what Kelenic has done at Seattle. Let's give it time.
I really like Vientos so I hope they do keep him til next year then give him a shot at DH. Maybe he'll strike out a lot, but could hit say 30 dingers. He could be the Mets answer to Schwarber. I'd sign up for that
I don’t really like Peterson too much. But, I realize teams need competent starters and he is one of those. I look at Lugo in Kansas City, and wonder why the Mets never wanted to give him a chance. What would have been the worst thing, his ligament gives out? That’s bad, but, isn’t that the risk for anyone? I mean the kid wanted it… and then there’s the “numbers people” that said he wasn’t good as a starter. Maybe he wasn’t AS good, but I bet Verlander would be better that Edwin Diaz. Want to make him a reliever?
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