MACK - Sunday Morning Observations

 

                                                      Mack - Sunday Morning Observations 

(thru Friday’s results) 

 

Observations -  Starters (Pt. 1) 

Last week, we built a plan for 2025.

 This week we are going to take a long, hard look at the future starter rotation going forward.

 I write this with the cold, hard fact that the Mets really only have one top-end starter currently… Kodai Senga. And he hasn’t pitched a lick so far this season.

 Regardless of Christian Scott’s last two outings and Blade Tidwell’s one blowup two outings ago, I believe both of these will develop into front end starters.

 Scott just needs some time to adjust to big time pitching. The shame is he doesn’t have Francisco Alvarez calling his 4- pitch, same release point arsenal. What he’s going through right now could be nothing more that outguessing the bat standing in.

 I expect Blade Tidwell to emerge as an SP2-3 candidate in 2025. I still feel he has a higher ceiling than Scott. Remember… he was projected to be a top five draft pick and the first pitcher off the board befoe developing arm stiffness. I have followed Tidwell since his senior year in high school. A smile actually came to my face when he was sidelined for a short time because I know this would knock him down in the draft and make a chance for him to become a Met reality. He already has come off his bad game with a great start and I expect him to soar into Syracuse very soon.

 Tylor Megill and David Peterson look like back-end candidates going forward, but I would hope the Mets do better here.

 At this point, I can’t count on outsiders. This exercise is being written to express my impressions of what is in the chain and what they will develop into.

 Beyond this…

 There is  a lot of developing starters in the chain, but that’s all they are at this point. The Mets have drafted a shite load of starters in the past five drafts. Name me how many have become front end starters in Queens? Name one. Matt Harvey? No, that was 14 years ago. Zack Wheeler? Nope. Beltran trade…. I can wait.

 Four years ago I thought it would be David Peterson, but now he projects as a back ender at best. The test used to be dominating at the AAA level, but we now call that the Cory Oswalt Effect.

 Simply put… ypu want an SP-1… draft early. I really don’t care what bats are still on the board. No one is going to trade you their future SP-1 candidate, not even Alonso, and the only way you are going to build a proper rotation is to draft the top starter still on the board WITH YOUR FIRST PICK IN THE DRAFT.

Kirk Snyder of Dynasty Info posted this week the top 15 minor league starters… right now. They are, and when they were picked in the draft, are::

 Top 15 MiLB SP

1. Cade Horton - 1.7

2. Jackson Jobe - 1.3

3. Andrew Painter  - 1.13

4. Drew Thorpe - 2^nd round

5. Rhett Lowder - 1.7

6. Noah Schultz - 1.26

7. Robby Snelling - 1.39

8. Jacob Misiorowski - 2^nd round

9. Chase Dollander - 1.9

10. Ricky Tiedemann - 3^rd round

11. Hayden Birdsong - 6^th round

12. Tink Hence - 2^nd round

13. Cade Povich - 3^rd round

14. Max Meyer - 1.3

15. Noble Meyer - 1.10

 As you can see, if you want a great starter, you need to pick em’ early.

 Lastly for today…

 The first pick the Mets made in the last five drafts were Colin Houck, Kevin Parada, Kumar Rocker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Brett Baty. There is no one currently on this team producing anythng that warrants a team picking them with their first pick.

 The one that does? Well, I don’t discuss him anymore.

 We’ll discuss the other promising starters in the system next week. 

 

Roster Moves - 

Mets -

 

LHRP Josh Walker recalled 

RHP Grant Hartwig promoted from Syracuse

 Recalled 3B Mark Vientos from Syracuse

 IF Joey Wendle designated for assignment

 RHP Yohan Ramirez designated for assignment

 Recalled reliever Shintaro Fujinami from Triple-A Syracuse and placed him on the Major League injured list with a shoulder strain

 

Syracuse -

 LHSP Joey Lucchesi optioned to Syracuse

 RHP Jose Butto returned from Mets

 RHP Andre Scrubb activated off Development List

 IF Jiman Choi activated off 7-day Injured List

 RHP Max Kranick sent outright to Syracuse

 RHP Shintaro Fujinami placed on Syracuse's 7-day Injured List, retroactive to May 10^th

 RHP David Griffin released

 

Binghamton -

 

RHP Brandon Sproat promoted to Double-A Binghamton 

 OF/1B Ryan Clifford promoted to Double-A Binghamton

OF Joe Suozzi - Placed on the Development List 

RHP Andre Scrubb - Transferred from AA to AAA Syracuse

 

Brooklyn -

 

RHP Jimmy Loper prmoted from St, Lucie 

RHP Jawilme Ramírez promoted from St. Lucie

RHP Layonel Ovalles to Development List

 RHP Diosmerky Taveras released

 

St. Lucie -

 

RHP Cristofer Gómez transferred from FCL Mets

LHP Gregori Louis transferred from FCL Mets

FCL -

 

Signed RHP Nick Bautista III to a Minor League contract

 

Brooklyn’s Home Park Is Notoriously Tough On Lefthanded Power -

 https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/left-out-brooklyns-home-park-is-notoriously-tough-on-lefthanded-power/?s=03 

 

Matt Eddy @MattEddyBA

 Lefthanded-hitting Brooklyn Cyclones players hit 20 home runs at home between 2021 and 2023. That total is by far the lowest in that split at High-A. Find out why Brooklyn's home park suppresses lefthanded power.

 

Florida Complex League Mets @FCLMets

         Wellington Aracena was en fuego this afternoon against the Astros.

Sitting 97-99 mph, he struck out 5 over 3 scoreless innings to pick up the W.

 

        Edgar Moreta was perfect today. Making his U.S. debut, Moreta retired all 10 batters he faced, struck out five, and topped out at 95 mph against the Marlins. 

(RHSP 20/yrs 2023 DSL:  4-4  3.42  13-ST  52.2-IP  52-K) 

        Joel Díaz continues to impress on rehab. The righty struck out four of the eight batters he faced and was up to 95 mph against the Marlins yesterday. 

(Diaz missed the entire 2023 season due to TJS. He’s still only 20 and I had him as a RED prospect after a stellar DSL season in 2021. Then came a 5.86-ERA in 2022 for the FCL Mets and the diagnose that put him in the operation room.)

 

 One encouraging prospect-related development for each team

 https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-surprises-from-each-farm-system?s=03 

 

Mets: Jonah Tong, RHP (No. 20)

 

Tong has been one of the big pitching stories of Minor League Baseball with his 0.33 ERA and 47 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A. The 2022 seventh-rounder has shown a 92-94 mph fastball with incredible rise in 2024, allowing for the high K rate and low ERA. His mid-80s curveball looks like another potential above-average offering, and he has a workable slider and changeup too, adding to his considerable helium. 

 

Mathew Brownstein @MBrownstein89 

Lowest minor league ERAs this season (min 30 IP): 

Emmett Olson: 0.56

Spencer Giesting: 0.79

JONAH TONG: 0.86

BRANDON SPROAT: 0.89

 

 SNY @SNYtv 

Evaluating the play of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos: 

"Zooming out from the immediate, the sense among evaluators who watch the Mets and their farm system is that Baty is a bit ahead of Vientos defensively, and that Vientos displays more confidence as a hitter." 

(Promoting Vientos to split time with Baty could only cause two unhappy puppies. They also were left with no backup infieder after DFAing Joey Wendle. I don’t think this will solve anything but we’ll see. They could be trying to market Baty too.)

 

 Mets expected to sign international prospect SS Elian Peña to bonus of around $5 million

  “Peña is a polished left-handed hitter and one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the class. It’s a sweet lefty swing that’s compact and stays through the hitting zone a long time, with Peña showing the ability to manipulate the barrel to consistently square up pitches for hard contact throughout the strike zone.” 

Some scouts believe the offensive-minded infielder, currently listed at 6-foot-2 and 155 pounds, will be best suited for third base. Peña even drew comparisons to Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox by one scout, per the New York Post. However, other evaluators think he has a chance to stick at shortstop. 

 

Ben Badler  (@BenBadler) 

The Blue Jays, Cubs, Mets and Yankees all have big international signings on the way next year. 

These are 12 international prospects to watch for the 2025 class: 

https://t.co/p5tKQ8A8gi  

 

 Kevin Kernan @AMBS_Kernan 

Mets down 10-5 only takes 4 pitches to get the 3 outs in 9th in Philadelphia. Dead team, $341 million SS was one of those 3 quick outs, now hitting .200. “Three to five years.”

 

 Abbey Mastracco @AbbeyMastracco 

Someone should try unplugging the Mets and plugging them back in 

 

Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo 

José Buttó has walked 17 batters and hit three with pitches over his last 24 innings. In the third inning today, Buttó forced in two runs with a BB and a HBP. The league is batting .177 off Buttó, which is one of the best marks in MLB. But his control has abandoned him at times. 

 

Brooks Raley (left elbow inflammation) will fly to Texas next week to see orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Raley acknowledged that he has potential ligament damage and bone spurs. He's still weighing "all options," including Tommy John or brace surgery, but also rest/rehab.

 

Abbey Mastracco @AbbeyMastracco 

Brooks Raley is weighing his options for the best course of action with his elbow. He said it’s “more complex” and has been told a few different things with regard to what exactly wrong with it (he mentioned bone spurs and a frayed UCL). Tommy John may be one of those options.

 

SNY @SNYtv: 

"I love this team. I love this clubhouse and the fans. Been a tough couple of weeks." Brooks Raley talks about dealing with his elbow injury and the possibility of a prolonged absence:

(I love this guy and want to sign him next season. That being said, TJS would cause the loss of the entire 2025 season. So… let’s see whay Raley and the Doc come up with here. He’s 35. TJS would push him to 37.) 

 

Tim Healey @timbhealey 

J.D. Martinez is now tied with Bartolo Colon on the Mets' all- time home run list. 

 

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN

 

Best and worst teams in Defensive Runs Saved:

 

1. Dodgers 33

2. Royals 32

3. Blue Jays 27

4. Rangers 25

 

27. Rays -19

28. Mets -22

29. Marlins -24

30. White Sox -27 

 

Matt Mancuso @MattyCuso 

Earlier tonight, Baseball Savant released public-facing Bat Tracking metrics for the first time ever.

 

Some Mets-related notes: 

Your Major League Leaders in Average Bat Speed against: 

T-1: Jose Quintana (73.2 MPH)

T-1: Jose Butto (73.2 MPH) 

 

Eno Sarris @enosarris 

Swing Speed over 73 mph

Swing Length 7.3 feet or shorter

min 200 swings:

                 Juan Soto

Gunnar Henderson

Bobby Witt, Jr.

Riley Greene

Corbin Carroll

Elias Diaz

Brandon Nimmo

Michael Conforto

 

 

Baseball

 

 

Kevin Kernan  @AMBS_Kernan

 

Pitchers have lost faith in catchers to block that’s why they don’t attack that area and you have hanging sliders. Hard for experts to understand that because they don’t know game. Imagine the amount of wild pitches if this generation of pitchers attacked like previous pitchers

 

 

If you pinch run for the Fake Runner are you really in the game

 

 

Sarah Langs @SlangsOnSports

 

highest % of swings that are blasts, 2024:

 

William Contreras: 24.9%

Juan Soto: 23.6%

Shohei Ohtani: 20.4%

Giancarlo Stanton: 19.1%

Yandy Díaz: 18.9%

Salvador Perez: 18.8%

Alec Bohm: 18.6%

 

WHY WE CARE - MLB results on blast swings: .545 BA, 1.116 SLG, 99.9% hard-hit rate blasts:… 

 

Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB 

Watching the Baltimore Orioles is a fine reminder of what PLAYER DEVELOPMENT is worth in Major League Baseball. 

(of course, it doesn’t hurt that you came in dead last for, like, 96 seasons in-a-row)