Reese Kaplan -- Do Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures?

An awful lot of words have been used over coffee, adult beverages and the like regarding what the Mets should do about pending free agent Pete Alonso who already feels he is worth more than what other top first basemen in the game have been paid.  He turned down a $158 million deal which would have put him in that $25-$28 million per year range both because he wanted more years and likely at the behest of his agent, Scott Boras.

There is not much now to address that sheds new light on this oft-debated topic.  It really comes down to trade him away during the season then look to sign him as a free agent, let him play out the year and try to extend his contract while doing that, or simply let him walk away for the draft pick he would generate when turning down a QO.  There is nothing new to address here.

However, when folks talk about making some major changes to the roster as we have endured it for the past several years, one thread that has not generated an iota of traction is the prospect of putting Edwin Diaz up for trade.  Obviously you are selling low while he is currently struggling.  A receiving team interested in his services must be highly confident he will return to the shutdown closer he has been and willingly will shell out the remaining 3 years and approximately $20 million per season he is owed.

Delve a little deeper into his deal and it is a bit more palatable to some cash-strapped would-be suitors.  Edwin Diaz agreed when he signed the deal during the 2022/2023 off season that he would accept deferred payouts through 2042.  That clause spreads the immediate burden of payroll out nicely and shouldn´t adversely impact a team threatening to exceed to salary limit before the so-called Cohen tax kicks in for exceeding it. 

The original contract included a $12 million signing bonus, then 2023 and 2024 salaries of $17.25 million and $17.5 million for 2025.  Then come options for 2026 and 2027 in which the salary would rise to $18.5 million. 

There is also a 2028 option which comes at a cost much more stringent than the annual salary.  If the Mets (or the obtaining ballclub) exercised it then all of that money deferred through 2042 becomes due immediately and the deferral disappears. 

OK, so if the financial lesson has sunk in, then let´s go back to the issue of finding a new closer.  A hot two week streak between now and the end of July would certainly add high powered fuel to the fire for prospective buyers who would salivate having vintage Edwin Diaz on their roster going forward. 

We saw last season that trading a setup reliever in David Robertson and two stellar starting pitchers in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander could help replenish a farm system.  If you assume that the long term stability and youth Diaz brings to his new club, then it is possible that his return in trade could be as good or even better.  Compare this prospective transaction to what a 2+ month guarantee of Pete Alonso would net and it should be clear that pulling the plug on Diaz would help revamp the team much more quickly. 

Now comes the big bugaboo that would stop this deal from happening.  If Alonso was gone it is entirely possible the Mets would experiment with Mark Vientos or even D.J. Stewart at first base.  The potential for productivity from Vientos is considerably higher than the 30 year old Stewart has ever done, but there is more than one option.

Think now about a bullpen without Edwin Diaz and address who is the new closer.  Adam Ottavino?  Well, he is on the books until year end only.  Drew Smith?  He is not yet showing the consistency people expect from a closer.  How about this year´s fairy tale story, Reed Garrett?  Well, his track record is not exactly the stuff of which legends are written.  Sean Reid-Foley has had health as an issue for his entire career.  Jorge Lopez has been a closer in the past and is doing nicely this year but he has had his ups and downs.  In other words, there is no clear cut substitute for Diaz. Robertson is long gone. 

Anyway, have at it...what would be a fair return for the Mets to take that kind of gamble?  That trade has long turned the page with Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Gerson Bautista, Jared Kelenic and Justin Dunn not offering any help to the Mariners.  Robinson Cano is gone from the Mets so it would appear that the lone solid return has been Diaz.  Now it is time to see if the Mets can obtain a cornucopia of baseball riches by peddling Diaz to the highest prospective trade partner.