I’m not going to do my normal Sunday morning observation post this week. I have a bigger agenda to discuss. Let’s face it. This is a .500 baseball team. RFK Jr. has a better chance of catching Biden than this team has catching either the Phillies or Braves.
Sure, the Mets have begun a half-ass youth program. But do fans really care if 24 year olds stumble at their first go in the majors ot if the player loses a year of eligibity?
Were the Braves concerned when they began building their current world class team?
I’m cleaning house this season, while at the same time, freeing up money for some new cough cough Soto cough exciting players to play next season.
So, with that said, let’s move on to what I would do in 2025.
C - It’s obvious that C Francisco Alvarez (24: $762.500 - 25: approx. $900,000) will be my starter here. But neither C Omar Narvaez (24: $7,000,000 - 25: FA) or C Tomas Nido (24: 2,100,000 - 25: A4) will be around anymore. As we all know, the Mets have had significant problems defensively this season, especially regarding throws to second base. My back-up here goes to the defensive specialist Hayden Senger (24: $60,300 - 25: approx.$850,000) who currently plays for Syracuse.
2025 SAVINGS: $ 8,172,800
1B - I’m trying to build a world class team full of players that do more than one good thing, so I really have no desire to pay in the range of 30mil a season for a first baseman that strikes out too much and can’t seem to hit .220. So, I’m done with Pete Alonso (24: $20,500,000 - 25: FA), who I am replacing full time with 1B/3B/DH Mark Vientos (24: 750,000 - 25: approx. $850,000). I also would make sure I had a veteran backup in Syracuse. I'll make up the homers elsewhere.
2025 SAVINGS: $ 20,400,000
2B - I like Jeff McNeil (24: $10,250,000 - 25: $15,750,000). I know him. That being said, it’s time to cut fish and move on this season when a return for him will be the greatest. 2B/SS Ronny Mauricio (24: $743,500 - 25: approx. $850,000) will be back next spring raring to go, healthy and all. Benind him, would be Jose Iglesias (24: $1,000,000) , who I would resign under a major league contract for around $3,000.000. I also would use him as my backup shortstop.
2025 SAVINGS: $ 8,193,500
SS - The Mets have one of the best shortstops in the game. He’s also the leader of this team. Lastly, his contract no longer looks silly. SS Francisco Lindor (24: $34,100,000 - 25: $34,100,000) is my guy.
But SS Joey Wendle (24: $2,000,000 - 25: FA) is no longer my backup. I’m replacing him with Jose Inglesias, who also lines up as my backup on second.
2025 SAVINGS: $ 2,000,000
3B - This one is simple. 3B Brett Baty (24: $750,000 minimum - 25: approx. $850,000) is my everyday starter. My everyday first baseman, Mark Vientos, is the backup here. Both Jose Ingleas and Ronny Mauricio can fill in here in a pinch.
2025 ADDITIONAL COST: $ 100,000
OF - OF Brandon Nimmo (24: $20,500,000 - 25: $20,500,000) will return as one of my starting outfielders. OF Alex Ramirez (24: $60,300 - 25: approx. $850,000) will finish 2024 in Syracuse and become another of my 2025 starters. OF Tyrone Taylor (24: $2,025,000 - 25: A2) will return as my chief utility outfielder. The other UTOF will be a graduated OF/SS/2B Luisangel Acuna (24: $60,300 - 25: approx, $850,000) who also gives my team added infield depth. Starlin Marte (24: $20,750,000 - 25: $20,750,000) will be sold off this season for prospects, while OF Harrison Bader (24: $10,500,000 - 25: FA) and
OF/DH DJ Stewart (24: $1,380,000 - 25: A2) will be released. This leaves one starter opening (he he).
2025 SAVINGS: $ 30,075,600
DH - I would do everything I could to get DH JD Martinez (24: $12,000,000 - 25: FA - offer: $15,000,000) to return for 2025. He could say no, retire, or go elsewhere. For now, I have to list this job wide open.
2025 CURRENT SAVINGS: $ 12,000,000
SP - Probably my SP1 will be, out of respect, SP Kodai Senga - (24: $15,000,000 - 25: $15,000,000). SP Christian Scott - (24: $592,796 - 25: approx. $1,500,000) would then come in SP2. Right now, before an upgrade, SP Tyler Megill (24: $766,250 - 25: A1 - proj. $1,500,000), SP Jose Butto (24: $686,718 - 25: approx. $850,000), and SP David Peterson (24: $2,150,000 - 25: A2 - proj. $2,500,000) line up SP3-5. I would make an attempt to bring back SP Joey Lucchese (24: $1,650,000 - 25: FA - proj. $2,000,000) as my SP6/AAA-SP1. Ss for my “old arms”…
SP Sean Manaea (24: $14,500,000 - 25: $13,500,000), SP Jose Quintana (24: $13,000,000 - 25: FA), SP Luis Severino (24: $13,000,000) - 25: FA), SP Adrian Houser (24: $5,050,000 - 25: FA), all would be traded this season for what I could get before their arms fall off. Where I go from here will be discussed later.
2025 SAVINGS: $ 30,045,764
RP - First, the keepers…
RP Edwin Diaz (24: $21,250,000 - 25: $21,250,000)
RP Brooks Raley (24: $6,500,000 - 25: A3 - proj. $8,000,000)
RP Adam Ottavino (24: $4.500,000 - 25: FA - proj. $10,000,000)
RP Sean Reid-Foley (24: $772,750 - 25: A1 - proj. $1,000,000)
RP Jake Diekman (24: $4,000,000 - 25: Opt $4,000,000)
RP Reed Garrett (24: $726,680 - 25: FA - proj. $1,500,000)
RP Josh Walker (24: $120,481 - 25: approx. $850,000)
RP Grant Hartwig - (24: $750,000 - 25: approx. $850,000)
RP Dedniel Nunez - (24: $750,000 - 25: approx. $850,000)
Next, the ones I trade or release….
RP Shintaro Fujinami (24: $3,350,000 - 25: FA)
RP Cole Sulzer (24: $854,838 - 25: A3)
RP Drew Smith (24: $2,250,000 - 25: FA)
RP Jorge Lopez (24: $2,000,000 - 25: FA)
RP Yohan Ramirez (24: $608,000 - 25: A1)
2025 SAVINGS: $ 906,069
Dead Money - coming off in 2025: P Max Kranick ($117,482), P Zack Short ($136.603), P Michael Tonkin ($107,527), P Kolton Ingram ($17,506), P Julio Teheran (120,986), P Phil Bickford ($217,472), P Justin Verlander ($31,300,000), and P Max Scherzer ($30,833,333).
SAVINGS: $ 62,550,909.
So… what does this all mean? Well, it means that I just cut $ 174,244,642 off the 2025 payroll, plenty of money to go get me an outfielder, a designated hitter, and another quality starter.
My goals would be to secure Juan Soto, resign JD, and shop for a starter, while still saving enough money to get below the luxury tax penalty level so I can stop losing my draft pick level.
Thoughts?
26 comments:
Mack, that’s a PLAN, especially after the last 2 miserable offensive nights.
Despite Acuna’s slow start in 2024 in AAA, he is my back up IF for Lindor and 2B, as well as back up OF. I believe Morabito could challenge him for a backup OF position. More like mid 2026.
Jett Williams’ chances of being ready for OD 2025 have taken a major hit due to his likely missing 40+ games. Maybe 2026 now, if he stays healthy.
In my 2025 outfield as back ups are Rhylan Thomas and Matt Rudick. Both are better than everyone thinks. Ramirez? 2026.
Pitching? No to Vasil and Hamel. Yes to Tidwell and Suarez. I think Tong and Orellana by mid 2025. Two fast risers. And McLean, too. Orellana threw 4 shutout innings for Brooklyn and fanned 10 last night. They might try to hold McLean back though, to give him more time to try to seal the hole in his thunderous bat.
Parada’s bat seems to be awakening. Maybe he is ready by OD 2026 to be a back up. Senger might struggle to hit .150 at the big league level.
2026? The lower minors kids begin knocking on the Queens door. Pounding, perhaps. Jeffry Rosa? Maybe a thunder bat by mid 2025, or OD 2026, as one example.
The Mets have had roughly 1300 at bats this season. Roughly a quarter of them from McNeil (130), Bader (106), Nido (39), Short (9), and Wendle (32). Combined they have a ridiculously low 16 RBIs. They should be embarrassed. Ashamed.
If they follow a plan like mine and secure both Soto and a pitcher like Snell....well this would be a world series contrnder
That is a lot of savings, and given current performance does not change much in the standings. Look for challenges to your lineup from a few others (Gilbert) and your staff (Suarez, Tidwell). I will miss some of the vets who gave us many exciting moments but the logic is sound.
I would agree that it may be time to fully turn the page.
I believe that McNeill and Nimmo are better hitters than they are producing. What is wrong? I stated back when that Chavez and Barnes were keys to the success of 2024. Need better coaching here as well.
For the most part, I do not see much in the way of batting in the minor leagues as well. What hitters in the top 25 prospects are hitting? Injuries and under performances. Morabito - love his improvement. Maybe 2026? Ramirez - fast start but fading? My jury still out. Need better coaching there as well?
The pitching, which recently seemed the weak half seems to have moved up. Love what is happening. Too many to mention. (Also a pair of underperforming as well)
Thoughts on Soto - even if the money is right, sign long term on a rebuilding team? No.
Thoughts on Joey L. - performing well now after recovering from TJS and poor ST, and seems not to be in any discussions on being brought up? Sign to be SP6 and pitch in Syracuse or sign and pitch on a major league team elsewhere? Elsewhere.
Final thought - let's remember mom today. I can truly say "If it wasn't for mom..."
Thank you Paul
Joey is not happy and the Mets still are pissed on how he came to camp.
I don't expect a renewed relationship in 2026
OMG Mack the most in depth and sensible plan for our club probably forever congratulations! There's really no changes I would make but we need to be ready to pivot from not getting Soto as I don't think we have a chance after the Evil Empire wins the WS or comes close and he wins the MVP. You are sooooo right about cutting the deadwood which has been a default position for us almost forever. Again great job Mack.
Tom we might have accually won y/day if the fences had been moved alittle but of course another in a very long line of ass kicking by the Bravos geez this goes back over 30 years now and I'm tired of it.
Mack I hope you texted Stevie and David with your post THEY NEED TO SEE IT PRONTO! I hate the halfass approach that the Wiponies perfected so hopefully this new FO goes in a different direction or as Yogi once said "when you come to a fork in the road take it".
Gilbert should be ready to graduate if he produces in Syracuse this season
I left him out pending that
Thank you Gary
Sent to Steve
Another question: who is Boston Baro and if he's any good could we get a premium player back in a trade with the Red Sox? Sorry my mind wanders sometime.
Ok, but no Foley. Has no control. Why no Drew Smith?
Just think we have seen the best of him already
Agree with you mostly. The theme of my next post.
Baro is a young third baseman that was an 8th round pick by the Mets. Can also play short and second. Possible future UTIF
Excellentn thorough analysis, Mack. The only part I disagree with is the speed. A lot of these kids look to be ML-ready in the next 1, 2 or 3 years, but no need to rush them. Phase them in 1 or 2 at a time, and we could have a young dynasty forming soon enough.
BTW, we do have a backup 1Bman at 'Cuse. Not a star, but a solid reserve. I'm talking about Choi, who declined to opt out of his MnL deal and remain at 'Cuse.
I'm not worried about Steve's wallet when we're talking about guys making under $10 mil. We keep them as filler as long as needed.
In looking to the future, one guy to keep an eye on is Marco Vargas, who turns all of 19 tomorrow. Currently at .333, with an OPS of .875 at Lucie, he ciuld be fast-tracked enough to debut at Citi in time for his first legal beer, but more realistically he'll likely need 3 more years on the farm.
Still, who knows?
Choi is still listed as active but hasn’t been in a game in 19 days.
I finally got the chance to check out Mack's Mets for today after all my duties with parents and the whole Mother's Day thing.
Wow . . I didn't know I was missing this all day. What a great, thoughtful, and detailed piece of writing that pretty much outlines the conclusions I have gotten to.
A few things that I might healthily (is that a word?) debate:
(1) I am not sold on J.D. Martinez this year, and I am not interested in bringing him back for 2025. I have seen too much old one-dimensional players with no speed. I do not yet have my convictions on what I really want to see from the DH spot, but I don't think Martinez it is. While Eloy Jimenez has see a bit of a drop off in numbers this year (and even last), he will be play next year at age 28 and has some history of being a pretty darn good hitter. Worth a shot for DH and strong extra outfielder?
(2) For your starting pitchers, I have no issue parting ways with Quintana and Houser, but I am not quite so sure I am ready to give up on Severino or Manaea. I think they could wind up being as good as many/most/all(?) of the free agent starters they could sign for more money.
(3) Relievers: I would keep Lopez over Ottavino (saves ~$6M). I would also keep Smith over Ottavino, also a $6M savings.
The only starting pitcher I would throw bucks at would be Burnes. At this point there is no way Snell is going to walk away from his $30M 2025 option and I want no part of that guy if he did. Verlander??
I would not sign any FA reliever. There are some decent arms coming up through upstate New York that will be useful to get started in the pen in 2025.
Now that other guy you are talking about . . oh yeah Juan Soto. I am not 100% convinced that is the way to go. He will certainly command some big dollars and long years, but even with his young age at initial free agency, you'll need to pay him into his late 30's. A poor fielding outfielder may not age well. And would he age as well in Citi Field as he would elsewhere?
I am really hoping that Drew Gilbert and Jett Williams can return this year and finish up strong. I still like Alex Ramirez a lot, but probably not in '25, at least not out of the gate. If Soto and Nimmo are both locked up for the remainder of the decade, does that really block some of these young (spelled 'inexpensive' or 'hungry') guys. It would certainly appear that Nick Morabito will make his way up the ranks by at least late '26, maybe earlier.
My blueprint involves a lot more team speed. I want to see a team that leads the league in stolen bases and going first to third on singles. I don't know that that statement precludes Soto, but I am guessing that years 6 thru 14 of his FA contract are going to bite the team that signs him. He will become that one-dimensional designated hitter I rail against.
Great writing Mack, thanks for the discussion!
He's on the IL, but is still on the roster.
One other point I was going to debate and forgot to mention the first time through is that I still believe the Mets have a better chance to catch the Phils and Braves than RFK Jr. has to catch Biden this year. (but not by much)
Gus, doesn't Drew Smith seem to just spend too much time on the IL?
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