12/14/11

Filling Out The Ranks From Here

25-Man Roster
Lineup: 8
1. Coco Crisp, CF (S)
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Lucas Duda, RF (L)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Ruben Tejada, SS (R)

Bench: 5
C: Mike Nickeas, C (R) [Ivan Rodriguez, C (R)]
IF: Justin Turner, 2B/SS/3B (R)
IF: Josh Satin, 2B/3B/1B (R)
OF: Andres Torres, OF (S)
OF: Fernando Martinez, LF/RF (L)

Rotation: 5
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. Jon Niese, SP (L) [Javier Vazquez, SP (R)]
3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
4. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)
5. Dillon Gee, SP (R) [Chris Young, SP (R)]

Bullpen: 7

CL: Frank Francisco, RP (R)
SU: John Rauch, RP (R)
SU: Ramon Ramirez, RP (R)
MR: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
MR: Pedro Beato, RP (R) / Daniel Herrera, RP (L)
LOOGY: Tim Byrdak, RP (L)
LR: D.J. Carrasco / Manny Acosta, RP (R)

If I'm looking at this correctly... the Mets would only "NEED" a leadoff hitter who can play CF. The thing to remember is, there are differences between completing a roster and filling out the team. FRANKLY... part of filling out the team SHOULD be trimming some of the bullpen because A) We need another lefty in there and B) We need D.J. Carrasco out. It also wouldn't hurt to have a better righty option for backup catcher and perhaps a starter in the event we move Pelfrey or Niese.

Center Field:
There are actually a couple of pretty solid names in free agency to fill the Met need for an everyday CF and leadoff hitter. While if it were 100% up to me... I'd be going after 26 year old Cuban defector Yeonis Cespedes, I think there are two fairly realistic options.

Coco Crisp (32) - Coco is coming off a pair of productive years in Oakland where he's produced good speed numbers and reasonably good On-Base numbers. He made $5.75 Mil in 2011 and should be earning somewhere in that ballpark in 2012. I think the Mets could handle that, though they'd want to control his years to keep him down to 1-2 at the most.

Corey Patterson (32) - Corey will cost around $1 Mil and would probably sign a 1-year deal. I have WAY more faith in Coco Crisp being a solid everyday contributor, but if we are looking for an affordable stop-gap... he's our man. To top that off, Corey's numbers in 2010 are strikingly similar to Coco's and that could translate into Corey being a relative bargain.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (25) - Captain Kirk is a solid option to replace Pagan as the everyday CF... for now. He's gritty, has improved steadily through the minors and has a mix of power and speed. The questions remain as to whether there is enough range to stick in CF. He makes great plays but what I have heard is that those plays are great only because he was too slow for them to be easy.

Matt Den Dekker (25) - Defense is not a problem for Den Dekker. He's probably the best defensive OF the Mets have in the farm system and I'm probably going to be one of the only people who thinks he can start the season in Flushing. His issue is that he's NOT a leadoff hitter. He'd be an asset at 6th, 7th or 8th (9th if we're being sneaky) but he's not an OBP oriented hitter.

My Plan?: I'd sign Coco Crisp as he's a good candidate to lead off in 2012. He'll cost somewhere in the realm of $5-7 Mil but I honsestly think his 2010-11 output would be well worth that figure. This semi-blocks Nieuwenhuis and Den Dekker, but I see Kirk as more of a replacement for Bay in the short-term anyway.

Catcher:
The story of Mike Nickeas is a good one. A player ready to pack it in and give up on his dream finally getting his shot and looking pretty decent. Sadly... I'm not satisfied with pretty decent when I need my catcher to hit. The loss of Reyes means the Mets cannot afford to have a purely defensive backstop... even if he's a backup.

Chris Snyder (31) - Snyder was once considered among the better catchers in the NL. He had reasonable power and a GREAT eye. He also was almost ALWAYS hurt. His OPS took a bounce back towards the positive in 2011 and he feels like a reasonably good fit for the Mets who could use him as the righty starter and defensive replacement for Thole. He might require a two-year deal... but the Mets don't have anyone in the pipeline so that wouldn't be so bad.

Dioner Navarro (28) - Remember 2008 when people thought Dioner was reaching that potential that the Yankees had drafted for in 2000? He hit .295 and was an all star. Remember how he followed that up? Since 2008 he's been nothing special. He fell from favor in Tampa Bay and failed to find himself in Los Angeles. The good news? He'd be earning a "Nothing Special" contract.

Ivan Rodriguez (40) - I've been playing fantasy baseball long enough that I remember Ivan Rodriguez being drafted #1. Rodriguez hasn't been young for 10 years but he was a pretty solid contributor as recently as 2010. PLUS he's just about the best candidate for training Josh Thole to be a star catcher that we could name. My big thing with Pudge is I just can't see him staying healthy enough to be there for 1 out of 4 starts and that is what the Mets would need.

My Plan?: I'd sign Ivan Rodriguez because in MY WORLD... I'm trading Niese for the future catcher of the franchise and want someone who can be a clubhouse leader and train Thole and the young trade target. I also think that if he'd be healthy he'd be a good fit for starting 1/3rd of the games in 2012.

Starting Pitcher:
Pelfrey WAS tendered a contract and I hope he proves all of us wrong over the 2012 season. He COULD do it... MAYBE... With Pelfrey locked down I'm switching gears to something I've talked about a few times... Trading Jon Niese.

I like Niese a lot. I really do. So before anyone gets the idea I'm Anti-Niese or that I don't WANT him on the Mets... cool your jets. I am simply WILLING to trade Niese for one of 5 specific prospect/players that I think are in the REALM of possibilities: Wilin Rosario (Col), Yasmani Grandal (Cin), Devin Mesoraco (Cin), Ryan Lavarnway (Bos) and Jesus Montero (NYY). Getting a catcher to take over

Chris Young - We already have one giant on the team (John Rauch), why not give him some company in the clouds? Young was good (until he was hurt) in 2011 and there is little reason to assume he wouldn't be just as good (and hurt) in 2012. He's a smart guy who knows how to pitch and if he could ever stay healthy (I refuse to infer that he will) he'd potentially return to being the top option he was 4-5 years ago.
Javier Vazquez - Remember that magical season in Atlanta when Javier Vazquez had the stats of a God? The Yankees do. They bought into that career year and suffered through a season of Javier looking like a batting practice machine. He then returns to the NL and... well not right back to near Cy Young but his ERA was under 4.00. He'd be attainable and might actually have the stuff to be a front-end starter.

Matt Harvey - Now people SHOULD say I'm crazy but if you are the Mets and Matt Harvey shows up this spring and blows the competition away, do you send him to the minors? HECK YES YOU DO! ARE YOU NUTZ!?! Then again... if you send him down to AA or AAA and he shines, how long can you keep him there. Harvey and Familia could easily force their own promotions by playing simply well. Fans will demand to see them. We sure don't have too much else we are crazy about seeing right now.

My Plan?: So... I'm trading Niese and signing both Vazquez and Young. Now... we've heard that the Mets would ask for a Jason Hammel type player in a deal for Niese but I think that with WHO we have in the rotation... signing Vazquez who has a better shot of being a #2 pitcher. Young replaces Gee/Schwinden... until he's hurt.

Now... Some well deserved and intended ABUSE...

So... You might have noticed that I'm signing more players than JUST Ivan Rodriguez. The fact is that I believe a NY sports team should be run like a NY Sports team and that a minimum payroll should not teeter near that poverty level of $100 Mil. The Mets should have the money to field a payroll of $120-140 Mil and if it weren't for Darth Fred, Jeff Ponz-Walker and Emperor Madoff we'd be able to do that. Heck... we can add that I'd like to sign Hong-Chih Kuo while I'm at it.

The Team I Listed Above is a Few Things:
  1. Not as good as a team WITH Jose Reyes
  2. Built to allow a good amount of turnover in the next 2 seasons
  3. Capable of staying relevant through the middle of the season
  4. Not going to happen with the current ownership regime

10 comments:

Mack Ade said...

okay...

you see, this is what happens when the drug store mixes up your medications...

and no one knows more about being "off" their medication than me...

David Groveman said...

The purple elephant keeps telling me who the Mets should sign.

Hobie said...

A 99%’er here, Dave (I agree 99% with your analysis/wish-lists): Ivan or Snyder, Young and/or Vazquez, etc., and I would prefer Kuo to Carasco (preffered Kuo to Rauch actuallty).

Only agita is with Crisp. Not a significant upgrade over Torres IMO (and my murky crystal ball says Legares will be getting substantial PT in CF while Kirk gets more reps in AAA). I’d rather Theriot if another acquisition is in the offing; Turner/Theriot would be a nice INF bench (sorry, Josh).

Charles said...

Last might Alderson said Santana.might not be ready for spring training. Considering that Chris Young had the same surgery.months AFTER santana had his, signing him to another deal has got to be the craziest thing the Mets could do. I don't care how cheap he would be. Hardly anyone comes back from shoulder surgery without.having issues. Who the heck would want to count on TWO pitchers coming back from it. When you've got so previous few assets to build this team, why waste ANY OF IT on a pitcher with such a horrible injury. That's probably the worst.injury a pitcher could have.

David Groveman said...

@ Hobie,

Crisp's 2010 and 2011 look pretty good to me. He plays a good CF and projects better at lead-off. I'd be just as happy with Theriot (because I'll go down with the ship saying Tejada isn't a starter)

@ Charles, I hadn't heard that news on Santana and I had read earlier that Young was progressing well. If the injury risk is too high then Gee/Schwinden is a better option. I just like the idea of Young in the back of the rotation because when he's ABLE to pitch... he does it pretty well.

Reese Kaplan said...

Look at Coco Crisp's numbers and look at Angel Pagan's numbers. We could have simply kept Pagan for less money if that's what we wanted. I can't see Crisp worth that kind of salary given the Wilponzi's finances. In fact, I was mildly surprised they tendered a contract to Torres. I figured they would instead rush Niewenhuis at ML minimum to patrol CF under the guise of "kids around whom we build for the future".

Mack Ade said...

let me weigh in here...

1. leave Niese alone... everyone wants him becuase he was one of the top 5 most unlucky pitcher last year. He's the real deal for an eventualy 4/5 slot.

2. the Mets only have so many top A and A+ players/prospects to offer in a deal for what they need, meaning, the minute you deal off someone, you need someone in the same position to replace them.

3. The Mets do not have multiple A or A+ ready prospects in any position other than SP5.

4. Yes, under the current operating profile, everything rests on Harvey, Familia, and Wheeler.

5. The only players on the 40-man "not ready" as of today are Jenrry Mejia and Johan Santana.

6. Chris Young wants to stay a mMet and will be 100% in the spring. He has dominated every time he has been healthy.

David Groveman said...

@ Reese,

Given the open option of 1 year of Pagan and 1 year of Crisp for 2012... I go with Crisp. All things considered he's the better fit for our need. Pagan fit the lead-off profile too but was so streaky that it wasn't helping.

@ Mack,

1) I'm asking you right now, Niese + Parnell for Yasmani Grandal? Would you do it? (I know the response is I don't answer hypotheticals but I'll keep tossing Niese's name about in trade talks because there are people who need SP and have catchers.

2) C: (Nobody), 1B: (Erm... Aderlin Rodriguez?), 2B: Havens, SS: (Nobody close), 3B: (Erm... Wilmer Flores?), OF: Vaughn & Puello, SP1: Harvey & Wheeler, SP2: Mejia & Familia, SP3: (Fulmer?) SP4: Peavey, SP5: Gorski, RP: Edgin & Leathersich

3) I politely think we are a little deeper.

4) Agreed... Nothing like eggs in a basket.

5) Not ready to play... yes.

6) Young needs to be here so somebody can stand next to Rauch and not feel short.

Charles said...

Young needs a contact. Why would anyone hear anything other then he's doing just fine. How this plays out is: the mets sign him. He shows up in the spring with a big smile. After two weeks of long toss, he gets on the mound and pretty soon after that, they're sitting him down. You know, the usual for pitchers coming.back from shoulder surgery. Santana.isn't throwing another pitch, but this guy is going to hold up?

Mack Ade said...

D.G.:

Yes, I'd do that deal.

Regarding A/A+ prospects... my belief is the Mets currently have only 3... lot's of B's but only 3 A's.

Reese:

email me at macksmets@gmail.com - I want to ask you something