 |
| VP of Player Development and Scouting Paul DePodesta, chatting with Manager Terry Collins |
response that would be better fit for a full post. Here it goes:
"What's Sandy and Co. Track record of MLB drafts with the NYM? My sense is that it has been middle of the road. I know it all needs more time to play but…."
This is a very good question and one that is difficult to fully answer. However, we do have three years worth of data and analysis now to look at and I'll be bold and make a prediction:
The 2011 and 2013 drafts were very good. The 2012 draft, especially at the top, could have and should have been much better.
2011 gave us Brandon Nimmo, a guy looking like a true top 50 prospect in baseball, but the true strength of 2011, a draft most fans loathed after it finished, came in the later rounds and especially on the pitching side of things, resulting in:
- Michael Fulmer
- Jack Leathersich
- Cory Mazzoni
- Tyler Pill
- Logan Verrett
- Robert Gsellman (hurt now but has he looked quite good over the past year and a half)
- John Gant
- Chase Bradford
The hitting side had a couple nice picks (Taijeron, Muno, Evans, Lawley) to go along with Nimmo but the strength of this draft was pitching. Sure, none of those guys look like front-line aces but a lot of them should either be very good relievers, solid back-end rotation guys, or, most importantly, great trade bait.
2012:
Cecchini was a bad pick. I analyzed the pick earlier in the week and found that there was way too much talent in the 2012 draft to justify taking Cecchini. Plawecki was a nice pick and should be good but not at the expense of missing out on someone like McCullers. The other really good picks in that draft, again, come in the form of right handed pitchers:
- Robert Whalen- 12th round
- Matt Bowman- 13th round
- Chris Flexen- 14th round
(talk about three great late picks)
- Vanderheiden - 19th round- a nice looking reliever
The top of this draft (Reynolds, Koch, Kaupe, an un-signed Stankewicz, Welch and Cecchini) looks
very very weak in a deep draft pool. Amazing, but RHP Robert Whalen, the 12th round pick, might end up being our best selection that year. Plawecki should be, but Whalen's been my system sleeper for a long time.
 |
| Fun trivia about my Mets system sleeper prospect, RHP Robert Whalen: He grew up (and remains to this day) a die-hard Mets fan |
2013 is harder to gauge as we only have a couple months of evaluation but again i don't have many positive strong feelings about the senior signings in the early rounds. I think those rounds should be used for more impact talent. However, a lot of good pitching here again:
- Casey Meisner
- Andrew Church
- Ricky Knapp
- Kevin McGowan
…but this draft was far different from '11 and '12.
What I see in '13 was the same affinity for low-risk, low-impact college juniors and seniors in players like Oberste, Mazzili, and King in the first few rounds. These player might turn out to be good, but I don't see much impact talent here. However, I think the thought process in picking those players was to save money and make some higher risk, more expensive picks later in the draft. They did. That is where this draft looks different: all of a sudden the Mets select a few risky, very high-ceiling guys both in the early and mid-rounds. Some of those picks look great already:
- Ivan Wilson
- Champ Stuart
- Casey Meisner
- Andrew Church
- Patrick Biondi (while a college player, this was an interesting and a bit risky pick as well)
then grabbed two really good looking shortstops in the mid rounds:
- Jeff McNeil, who is killing it in PSL and
- Luis Guillorme, a defensive whiz who is probably the best defensive infielder in the entire system…already. Including Tejada.
Remember, this was where the Tyler Pills, Jack Leathersiches, and Logan Verretts were taken just a couple years ago. I prefer this strategy and I really like the '13 draft, if for no other reason than...
Dominic Smith, who I think has a real chance to be a star in this league. Not kinda good. Not acceptable. Not serviceable or "just okay"…but a true star in the MLB.
I would rank Sandy and DePo's drafts a bit better than middle of the road. They have filled the system out, taken a few risks, and grabbed a few awesome players. We are also seeing that it does take time. Brandon Nimmo is finally tapping into all of his raw talent. Bottom line is, the system is stacked in pitching, has some intriguing bats, a lot of good defenders, and a lot of trade bait. That is a heck of a lot better than what it was a few years ago and much of that can be attributed to smart drafting.
--Stephen
17 comments:
I really hate to be so low on a draft pick being that it takes a while to develop (i.e. Nimmo), but it really seems Cecchini was a wasted pick, with no real upside. I know it's all hindsight, but with Giolito, McCullers, Hawkins, Wacha, Seager all available, you wonder how they could consider Cecchini the BPA. In the first round, especially in the top first half of it, you should want to draft the highest impact/most upside potential player. Not players that will be "kinda good" or "just ok," like you mentioned...it was pretty disappointing, especially missing out on signing Stankewicz as well.
The 'Stank' deal was really handled badly. They told the kid they had a deal, then changed it.
You guys are harsh on Cecchini. The kid has been on fire lately, hitting the ball with authority. And, according to Toby Hyde, has shown plenty of skill (range, arm) at SS. If he's an average or better defender with a decent hit tool then he was a great pick.
How do you know that Cecchini has "no upside?"
Willis -
I was asked a specific question about Cecchini today, which I am answering in my Wednesday Morning Report.
We all have opinions here. Everything you read is the opinion of one of the writers. It is never 'we' here.
Most of us here feel the Mets could have drafted a better pick here. There was a lot of established talent still laying around out there in this draft, especially players the Mets had private tryouts with.
Cecchini caught all of us off guard.
I attend Sand Gnats games (not all of them). I watched him dive for a spectacular play yesterday. He didn't catch the ball but he tried like hell.
He's currently batting .500 in his last 7 games which he won't sustain, but he needs to be given the rest of this season to establish himself as a factor in the future. If not, he needs to be moved aside for Amed Rosario or Trea Turner (if he is drafted).
The improvement I see in recent drafts has been in depth...If you look through an Omar draft, you will see a ton of wasted picks....One thing you can say for Sandy is that he throws alot of darts out there...
The problem is that they continue to be cheapskates in this area....Definately not as much as in years past...but they let Stankowitz walk when all he wanted was slot-money, and the opportunity was there to be much more aggressive...especially in 2011 before all the slot restrictions...
I'm no big Cecchini fan...but who should they have taken with that pick? Giolito had a bum shoulder...McCullers was a questionable sign....Wacha was projected for late first round....and Hawkins has mostly been a nightmare as a pro....
Sam Sirin · Top Commenter · Amityville, New York
You guys are way too down on Cecchini. I didn't love the pick either, I desperately wanted Wacha or Hawkins, but I still don't hate the pick. He hit the same amount of home runs in Brooklyn (0) as Ike Davis did, when Ike was two years older than Gavin. He seems to be able to play at least average D at short with the potential to be pretty good, and has shown he has the ability to hit for a decent average, take a walk and steal a base every now and then. A SS who can hit .270 or over with 10-15 homers, 10-20 steals and play average-to-above-average D is a very valuable player. Maybe the power won't come, but he's been in some tough power-sapping ballparks through his career so far, so who's the say it won't come as he fills out and gets older and stronger? He already has two more homers this year than Dom does.
Craig -
Yes, Hawkins had issues AFTER the draft, not before the Mets picked Cecchini
Man, look at the current state of Met affairs at SS. It's deplorable. An average major league shortstop is incredibly valuable, making Cecchini a fine pick.
Willis -
Actually, the Mets thought they had this position solved the year before when they convinced Phillip Evans to take over-slot money. Evans was projected as the 3rd top SS in that draft, but he sent signed that he wasn't going to sign and would attend college instead.
The Mets stole him as a later round pick and he seems to be coming around this year for St. Lucie.
I knew I would take a lot of heat for this article which is why I preface it with "this is bold".
I also find it amusing that when I defended the pick when Cecchini was drafted, saying the Mets wanted a hitter and he was the BPA hitter on the board (looking back on it, unless you reach for someone like Gallo, which would have been preposterous, we did), I got demolished on here and was called every name you can imagine.
Now I'm saying he was not a good pick and I'm getting heat again. I disagree on Toby Hyde's assessment of Cecchini. He's big, has problems with his feet, and is not a natural defender. Like Mack says, he works EXTREMELY hard and always gives 100% on every play. That I commend him for. But he's more likely a second baseman, and especially so if he adds any more mass…something he'll have to do to hit for more power.
He really doesn't hit for power. He has speed but doesn't use it on the bases. He has an okay arm but it's wild. He's got okay instincts but makes mental errors in the field.
To answer the question above, "Who would you have taken?" I would have taken Marcus Stroman and that is well documented both on this side and others. He is the 48th-ranked prospect in the game at the moment.
I hope Cecchini's hot streak continues because I see the absolute ceiling for him as a Murphy type player: A guy who gets by in the field, has a touch of power, steals a base here or there, but can consistently hit above .280 and peak in the low .300s. I'd take that.
When I did the research for this piece, I saw a dozen players now ranked in the top 150 prospects in the game including some amazing pitchers we just passed on because we wanted a hitter. I still think this was a mistake. This is not hindsight as I wrote an article for Mack about why Stroman should have been the guy. If not Stroman, Giolito was Mack's choice, Hawkins was a lot of fans', and I would have loved to see them reach for McCullers anyway who had some of the best pure stuff I'd seen in a long time.
Thanks for the comments. It's not a popular opinion, but it is one that is supported by close scouting, statistics, and a couple years of watching the guy play.
Also, comparing Dominic Smith to Cecchini is a bit ridiculous. They're playing in the same league and Smith is a year and a half younger.
Regarding Cecchini, I'm not giving you heat. I took issue with the commenter who said he was a wasted pick with no upside. That's very different than your thoughtful articles about him and other prospects.
But reading your article, it seems he's got tools that need to be refined. The Mets have been great at molding players' skills to maximize their talents. If Cecchini has speed and a good arm, and according to TH, range, then that indicates legit SS upside.
I get that, but there are a few comments above that seem bothered by the suggestion that Cecchini wasn't a good pick. Again, I disagree with TH and I think Cecchini can hit enough for second but nothing really stands out. Again, some speed, some power, but he has never been able to get on base as much as Nimmo, isn't as good a defender, doesn't have the same power potential, and it took even Nimmo a couple years to come around.
I hope I'm wrong and I hope cecchini never loses this hot streak and does what Nimmo has done so far this year but I just see a guy who has tools but none that are that great. With how much talent there was in the '12 draft, I just don't love the pick but again..hope I'm wrong.
If he can hit .320, some power, some speed, and get by at second base, I think any MLB team would take that.
Thought I'd come over here... can't watch the Dice K meltdown in the 8th...
I have a question for both of you... what do you do if Trae Turner is available at #10?
You know my answer haha you take him..even if you like Zimmer and he's around too. I love Turner and I think he has a chance to be a real good player in this league.
Great article Steven
Thanks for the question, Bob. Made me think.
Post a Comment