Ahoy, ye landlubbers and scalawags!
I'd like to invite you down to the depths, the deep recesses, of the Mets' organization. A faraway place teeming with guppies, otherwise known as Rookie Ball players - in the illustrious short season leagues - mid-June thru early September baseball at its finest. Brooklyn, Kingsport, and yes, even our second St Lucie-based team, the Gulf Coast Metsies.
For those of you who are not Mets minors aficionados, Brooklyn is by and large the most advanced, then Kingsport, then the GCL boys.
These are the places where kids born in years like (gasp) 1997 play, with the hopes of someday growing into big fish that can swim upstream with full season teams in Savannah, St Lucie, lovely Binghamton and dry, hot Las Vegas, and then perchance to make a splash the Citi Aquarium in beautiful Flushing, in the burro of Queens (Hee Haw).
But who might be worthy of
such an arduous journey? Hard to tell... guppies tend to look alike and
determining which guppies have the genes, the drive, and the determination to
swim with the big fishes is a tough call. Many guppies start out, few
make it to the top rung. And every year there is a new batch of guppies
that show up in June. Many in this year's fish tank will be swept away,
never to be seen again. So hard to tell which could make it all the way.
I, as master surveyor of our guppies, will attempt to pick out the current ones that someday are most likely to make major leaguers feel like they're face to face with the Great White Shark that Roy Schneider came to know and love. Or like they’re facing a west coast Trout that’s kind of fierce.
I, as master surveyor of our guppies, will attempt to pick out the current ones that someday are most likely to make major leaguers feel like they're face to face with the Great White Shark that Roy Schneider came to know and love. Or like they’re facing a west coast Trout that’s kind of fierce.
In English, that means I
plan on spelling out which of the guppies I from these illustrious 3 teams are
in my top 20, 5 today and 5 more each of the next 3 days.
I won't, by the way, go down to the land of micro-guppies, the DSL, where the Mets have two teams with (as Steve Somers might say) "kids that were born like 2 weeks ago already". Why? A few years ago, one such tadpole tore up the DSL and was even hitting some Mets top 5O prospects lists. But upon arriving into Short Season baseball, production evaporated and strikeouts exploded - so to me, predicting who might succeed out of the DSL is a complete crapshoot. No thanks.
I won't, by the way, go down to the land of micro-guppies, the DSL, where the Mets have two teams with (as Steve Somers might say) "kids that were born like 2 weeks ago already". Why? A few years ago, one such tadpole tore up the DSL and was even hitting some Mets top 5O prospects lists. But upon arriving into Short Season baseball, production evaporated and strikeouts exploded - so to me, predicting who might succeed out of the DSL is a complete crapshoot. No thanks.
Ratings are pegged partly
on draft level (with age factored in) and on international signing status, but
also on performance – if you were a 2nd rounder and floundering, you’re
not on the list. Performance will get
you there.
So here we go with the first 5 of my Top 20 Guppies - next 15 to follow over the next 4 days - tell me what you think, fellow guppie groupies. Today I present for your reading pleasure my “A” group, guys who due to both pedigree and recent performance make me think that they have great major league prospects. “B” rated guys? Perhaps lighter in one or both of those criteria. “C” rated? More of a long shot but definitely worth watching. I weight a lot on performance, and there has been little of it so far this year, since they all started this season less than a month ago, so future rankings may shift quite a bit based on what the guys on those teams all do over the weeks ahead.
Marcos Molina – Brooklyn RHP - Grade A. The 19 year old, is a hard throwing 6'3”, 190 lb fella already “Making his Marc” by having thrown 4 starts in Brooklyn, with remarkable success. How's 24 innings with only 1 earned run, 8 hits, 5 walks and 26 Ks grab you? Sensational. He’s described as a guy with a strong work ethic. Those guys move faster. He signed “international” for $100,000 in 2012, so he is looking like a real bargain. My take? He can be part of the Mets rotation by 2017, when they’ll have twelve #1 starters.
So here we go with the first 5 of my Top 20 Guppies - next 15 to follow over the next 4 days - tell me what you think, fellow guppie groupies. Today I present for your reading pleasure my “A” group, guys who due to both pedigree and recent performance make me think that they have great major league prospects. “B” rated guys? Perhaps lighter in one or both of those criteria. “C” rated? More of a long shot but definitely worth watching. I weight a lot on performance, and there has been little of it so far this year, since they all started this season less than a month ago, so future rankings may shift quite a bit based on what the guys on those teams all do over the weeks ahead.
Marcos Molina – Brooklyn RHP - Grade A. The 19 year old, is a hard throwing 6'3”, 190 lb fella already “Making his Marc” by having thrown 4 starts in Brooklyn, with remarkable success. How's 24 innings with only 1 earned run, 8 hits, 5 walks and 26 Ks grab you? Sensational. He’s described as a guy with a strong work ethic. Those guys move faster. He signed “international” for $100,000 in 2012, so he is looking like a real bargain. My take? He can be part of the Mets rotation by 2017, when they’ll have twelve #1 starters.
Amed Rosario, Brooklyn SS - Grade A. Both last year's Appalachian League
top prospect at age 17, and listed as #5 prospect on the Mets' website, Amed is
meeting the NY Penn league challenge at 18 by posting .284/.352/.358 #'s
already. Given his age, that is
extremely impressive. Nine errors so
far, but that will certainly improve with age and experience. It remains
to be seen if he will stay at shortstop long term. Amed is listed at 6’2” (a great height for a
shortstop) and 170 (he’ll no doubt fill out).
He signed for $1.75 million, also in 2012, so he has clearly long been
considered top tier. No reason to think
he could not reach the bigs by 2017.
Cream rises to the top, baby.
Jhoan Urena, Brooklyn 3B - Grade A. No relation to Uggie Urbina (or to his
struggling son Juan), Jhoan is a smoking hot 3B (.312/.385/.484). The Mets
signed Urena to a $425,000 bonus in 2011, so right away, you’d expect he’s got
the goods. Having started playing in 2012, this 19 year
old already has 563 plate appearances under his belt. A 6’1”, 200 switch
hitter who hits better righty so far. Could David Wright hear footsteps
from this lad in a few years, say around 2017? We’ll see.
Blake Taylor – GCL LHP – Grade A. The
player to be named later in the Ike Davis deal has real potential – and was
plopped right in on the Mets’ website as their #17 prospect. A 6’ 3” 220
lb lefty who turns 19 next month, Blake started his career in 2013 as the 51st
pick (WOW!!) in that year’s entire draft by tossing 21 innings, surrendering
just 7 hits. This year, 10 2/3 innings so far of 1 hit ball -
extraordinary stats – which I love as a numbers guy. Sixteen walks
in 32 innings, so he needs to work on his control, but what 18 year old
doesn’t? I was out of control at 18 myself. Back when dinosaurs
roamed the earth. Blake is definitely one to watch (and who said Ike
couldn’t produce?)
Corey Oswalt – Brooklyn RHP – Grade A. Four
outings in Cyclone country this year – 3 great ones and one not so good, but
Corey sports a 2.08 ERA, 22 innings, 23 K’s, 15 hits and 5 walks. The 6’4” 200 lb righty was a 7th
rounder out of High School in 2012, ran into injury woes last year, and is back
doing his best Roy Oswalt imitation this year.
He throws hard, but is early in the pitching process. I’m going with early performance here, and a
hunch he’ll excel and be another dude to hit the Mets’ Queens orbit by 2017.
My friends, tune in
tomorrow (and the 2 days after that, too) for my next batch of guppies, and let
me know if you agree with this batch.
Tomorrow starts the “B’s”.
5 comments:
Well done! I look forward to the next few installments.
On a side note, I wonder how the "anti-Sandy" side of the fan base will feel in 2017 when our Mets have a dominant team on the field, that will be largely shaped by his tenure?
I am sure he will have moved on by that point, but he will look fondly on what he accomplished, I am sure. He is setting up the organization for a nice, long run of competitive baseball, IMO.
I am one of the people critical of Sandy because I have had decades of lost seasons to look back at.
Thank you Thomas for being one of the positive guys on this site and keeping us advised that there is future talent to keep an eye on.
One caveat... these 'kids' are being taught to play the game at this level and stats always aren't the only way to judge their talent. I remember sitting in the Sand Gnats dugout around 5pm one day prior to game time and Greg Peavey came out of the clubhouse where he ate dinner and sat next to me. He was starting that night and the 'off the record' rule was always to never talk to the SP that day.
Peavey looked concerned though and I asked him if something was wrong,
He told me that he was going to be called upon to throw his curve around 20% of the time.
I asked him what was wrong with that and he said "I don't throw a curveball'.
In KIngsport, the players are always told on day one 'welcome, now you are going to learn how to play baseball'.
A lot of this 'practice' can look pretty bad on paper, but you have to trust in the coaches and scouts when they see someone with that excess talent at a certain level.
BTW, that's what they saw in Rosario. And that doesn't always work... no one impressed people in Savannah more than Cesar Puello...
Thanks, anonymous and Mack. I suspected as much, Mack. Why let a guy rumble up to AA on one dominant pitch, but now more is needed and it has not been cultivated. All tools need to work. Some guys like Puello impress folks and fall short...Others like Campbell quietly work to improve and hit .343 where it counts...in Flushing!
Sandy gets to show he's got what it takes soon...can he somehow take the inventory of talent and land a young-enough elite guy to take this org to the top level.
Thomas -
I'm always reminded about Josh Satin.
He's a natural talent with a bat in his hand but he's always had problem convincing anyone he could play in the field, at any position (and God knows he has tried them all).
This is the major freaking league and it's a level so high (30 teams, 30 second basemen in the entire world!) to make it
Nice work, Thomas. I look forward to the next installments.
I love your upbeat perspective. All the negativity around the team can be demoralizing. Personally, I try to take a positive from the organisation every day.
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