7/22/14

Morning Report – July 22nd – Michael Conforto, Wild Card Race, Minor Moves



                                                                                                                                            
Coming Later Today –    

              2 00 pm - Baseball America - Highest Draft Bonuses of All-Time

             4 00 pm - 2015 Draft - Profile  -  2B  -  Ian Happ  -  Cincinnati - UPDATED 7-9-14



Christopher Soto will be updating his version of the top 25 Mets prospects this week. We have ‘cleared the board’ on the right side bar, so get ready to see some major changed since he last did it before the season started.


 Well, we finally got Michael Conforto back to playing baseball. I’m being told that he will get his feet wet in Coney Island for the rest of July, but will finish the season playing in the Savannah Sand Gnats outfield. It seems that the Mets would really like to win back-to-back championships there and Conforto would be a nice addition to bat right after Dominic Smith in the lineup. They also are very high on the progress of 21-yr old Champ Stuart who will also he held back so he can play in the Sally League playoffs. It’s frustrating when teams have to sacrifice the progress of their players to make the owners of their affiliates happy, but this is a business. All three of these first tier prospects will open up 2015 for St. Lucie.

The hardest part of this equation seems to be holding back Conforto in Brooklyn until the end of the month. He's eating up (small sample) the NY Penn pitching, which is also getting more quality pitchers for players like 3B Jhoan Urena and 1B Michael Katz that bat before and after him.

I may be wrong about this guy... he looks like the kind of bat we haven't had in this organization since that kid came out of, where, Virginia, 10 years ago



Dan-Chat –

Comment From Kevin - What kind of pitcher do you see Zach Wheeler turning into down the road? Good #2, or more mid rotation kind of guy. Figure he continues to struggle with his command ROS?

            Dan Szymborski: I think a good #2 more likely than a lower rotation guy.

                         Mack - I don't want to sound impatient, but I sure would like to see Wheeler step up for the remainder of this season so we would all know that we are going to go into the 2015 season with a killer 1-2 with Matt Harvey.

Wheeler has been brilliant every once in awhile and has strung four outings (6.0-IP each) in which he only gave up one earned run each, but he simply can't get into the 7th or, God forbid, the 8th inning. 

He's even cutting down some of his BBs, walking only five in his past three outings.

I can't see the Mets trading this guy this month unless it was in a Tulo-like deal. If that's true, it sure would be nice to see him start off a game without taking 20+ pitches to get out of the first inning.
I decided to throw the site into following the Wild Card race which makes one immediately realize just how many things have to go right for the Mets to make it that far. The easy part may be winning 65% of the rest of the game. The difficulty lies in the nine or 10 other clubs that are trying to accomplish the same thing.
So many things have to happen here right and a little luck wouldn’t hurt either. Remember, there are two races here. One for the division which, IMO, could only happen if either the Nats or Braves win five of the remaining nine games left they play each other on the schedule. If this doesn’t happen, one of the Wild Card teams will be one of these two guys which limits any success for the Mets immensely.
In the future, this will be updated every Monday morning.

The Mets are not starting off well here, losing the series to the lowly Padres; however, they did make up some ground on the Reds who were swept for four games.

I may have fell for another false alarm here. I seldom get excited about what comes out of Queens anymore by the 8-2 home stand did make me take a second look at the chances of making it as one of the two wild card teams. 

This week would also determine if we were going into the remainder of this season as 'buyers' or 'sellers' and, frankly, we only had around the first 6-8 games after the ASG to send those signs.

So what happens?

Right back in the ole toilet with a 1-3 start for the week.



The following stats are through Sunday's  games unless indicated.

NL East –

            Mets – 

                        Record (through Monday) since ASG  -1-3

                        next up through next Sunday – at Seattle, at Brewers

            Braves – 

                        Record (through Monday)since ASG -2-2

                        next up through next Sunday – Miami, San Diego

            Washington –

                        Record (through Monday) since ASG - 3-1

                        next up through next Sunday – at Rockies, at Reds

            Miami –

                        Record (through Monday)since ASG - 2-2

                        next up through next Sunday – at Braves, at Houston


NL West –

            Dodgers –

                        Record (through Monday)since ASG - 2-2

                        Next up through next Sunday - at Dodgers, at Giants

            Giants –

                        Record (through Monday)since ASG – 3-1

                        Next up through next Sunday - at Phillies, Dodgers


NL Central –

            Brewers –

                        Record (through Monday) since ASG - 2-2

                        next up through next Sunday - Reds, Mets

            Cards –

                        Record (through Monday) since ASG - 2-1

                        next up through next Sunday – Tampa Bay, at Cubs

            Reds –

                        Record  (through Monday) since ASG - 0-4

                        next up through next Sunday - at Brewers, Nats

            Pirates –

                        Record (through Monday) since ASG - 3-1

                        Next up through next Sunday – Dodgers, at Rockies





Minor Moves… Kingsport catcher Brandon Brosher is probably out for the season. Reports are that he either broke his leg or tore an ACL during an off the field incident. Brosher was leading the team with a slash line of .387/.424/.774/1.198. 4-HR in 31-AB… not only did Savannah Sand Gnats RHP John Gant have his 10th win this weekend, he also threw his third shutout of the season. Gant is blocked by a number of less talented pitchers in both Binghamton and St. Lucie... P Buddy Carlyle has played for Las Vegas in three different decades (for three different teams): 1999 Padres, 2005 Dodgers, and the 2014 Mets...

14 comments:

Michael S. said...

I know it's just NYP, but based on scouting and what he's done so far, I think Conforto starts next year in St Lucie and makes the Show in 2016. We could be graduating 2 long-term OF after next season. Wouldn't that be nice for a change?

Tom Brennan said...

Sad to hear about Brosher - great start with homers in 4 straight games, and then zapped immediately by injury.

Cellar teams are sellers - is that the motto?

Another season flushing away for the team from the Flushing locale, it appears. Pre-weekend optimism gets dashed by offensive futility. The Ruben Sandwich is 3 for his last 24 - 1 single in last 3 losses - time for Flores' bat, IMO. You know, the guy with the .365/.395/.730 slash line in 23 games in July, with 29 RBIs. Even if Vegas inflates stats by 500%.

Unknown said...

I think it's good to have high expectations of Conforto, and all of our top prospects, but a lot fizzle out before reaching AAA. Just ask the Giants about Gary Brown or the Royals about Bubba Starling. Imagine if we got Gary Brown back for Beltran instead of Wheeler.

It's nice to have a future plan for these guys but wait until they reach AA and tear it up (a la Plawecki) before penciling them into the future lineup.

Ernest Dove said...

Time to sell, sell, sell.........
And, to be honest, trading/releasing guys like colon, dice k, the young's, and even daniel murphy, would not really have much effect on the win/loss record. ....they can all immediately be replaced (I understand the Murph over flores critics)
What would make it a true 'fire sale' is if team traded players like Niese or Gee............trading a thor/montero/deGrom/wheeler type doesn't count as selling, because that would likely involve getting back a major league starter (blockbuster typr deal)

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Ernest

Taking Flores' side for a minute, Wilmer has hit far better than Murphy did in minors at the same age, not that Murphy was a stiff - he hit well too. He did not hit in Vegas, but I will bet that over the past 600 AAA at bats this year and last, the 22 year old Flores has the best #'s in that league.

He'll hit, and it's not like Murphy fields like Doug Flynn did. Will Flores hit as well as Murphy immediately? Maybe not. Would he better than Murphy in a year or 2? I think so. I know Herrera is ultimately the future 2B or SS, barring trades, but Wilmer could slot in there today.

Anonymous said...

Is Plawecki hurt? He hasn't started since the AAA All Star break I think except for one time. Considering he is top prospect really don't understand Centeno and now Teagarden starting over him. If Young does go on DL I hope that Flores finally gets his chance starting at shortstop. Is he long term answer at short, no but he has earned the chance.

Anonymous said...

Hard to figure the lineup calls in Vegas; it pains me to see Serratelli and Allen block Puello in LF. cant imagine either one of those players will ever wear a Mets uniform and based on last year's production, Puello deserves at bats to see if he is real or if he will wash out. he went 3-3 last night and had 2 HRs his first game back from DL and then rode the pine for 3 days. run him out there everyday and see if he can get something going. Lots of people scream Biogenisis when they talk about last year, but it is unlikely that he was juiced since he was known to be under investigation and would have been tested several times. it is possible that last year was a true breakout year and if so, he could be a dynamic outfielder. I saw two games last year and sat with scouts who called him "man amongst boys" and dismissed roids as reason. I don't know, but we will never know if he continues to get blocked by AAAA players who will never see the 25 man roster.

Anonymous said...

Agree with you 100%. The lineups at AAA that seem to ALWAYS give preference to older players instead of prospects is just mind boggling. Puello needs to be playing everyday. Plawecki needs to be playing everyday. The fact that Flores continues to hit while being a nomad on the field speaks volumes about his abilities as a hitter.

Mack Ade said...

Re: Las Vegas -

Something happened there Re: Puello and he lost his at-bats early on this season. Someone told me that Wally Backman was pissed off at him but that was a long time ago.

Tom Brennan said...

Add Omar Quintanilla to the list of vets taking at bats from legit prospects. And Alvarado from pitching prospects. Play the prospects only.

Mack Ade said...

Re: Plawecki

As I have said before, getting information out of Las Vegas is like dealing with North Korea.

Adam Rubin is checking for me tomorrow morning and I'll post up the results of his findings (he will also have it in his weekly minor league report if there is anything to report)

Anonymous said...

Like Danny Muno. I know he does not have ceiling of others being blocked, but the guy is a switch hitter, always has high OBP, has good pop for MI, nips a few bags, and did win a BA title, albeit NY Penn. he is actually a guy that I think could be a very useful utility guy and off the bench player. I guess the only reason I could see him being blocked by Omar is that at least he could be called up to play SS if Tejada was injured, so I guess it makes sense to keep him fresh. hard to find him ABs when Omar and Satin take up infield spots, Reynolds has been promoted and Flores has been demoted, but he has tools that need to be examined for ML quality

Mack Ade said...

I still feel that the future Mets SS is currently not in the organization and it definitely is not Wilmer Flores.

Anonymous said...

I know he is a few years away, but I have a good feeling about Ahmed Rosario. I think if we can find a veteran who can play for two or three years, Rosario will be the future SS when he is ready.

Side note, congrats to Sandy and Co (as well as Omar before him)......Keith Law has our farm system in the Top 5! Bodes well for the future, to say the least.