7/24/14

Morning Report – July 24th – Cargo, September Pitchers, Future Planning, Thor



                               

I’m being told that the Mets are looking closely in the direction of Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzales.

The 28-year old’s numbers are way down this year (through Monday: 
.253/.302/.452/.754, 217-AB, 9-HR, 34-RBI), hampered by a finger injury that placed him on the disabled list.

A major hang-up to any deal with the Mets would be the remaining salary committed to CarGo in his existing contract: $16.429mil/2015, $17.429/mil/2016, $20,429mil/2017, no team option. A considerable portion of this would have to be eaten by Colorado, something they might not have to do if they do a deal with another team.

My contact in the Colorado media says that Troy Tulowitzki is ‘going nowhere’ and, like David Wright, is the face of the franchise, but the Rockies will be sellers this/next week and a Gonzalez deal to the Mets for ‘primarily young pitching’ is ‘doable’.

For the Mets, CarGo would solve the outfield problem until prospects like Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo developed. 

(This isn’t just the kind of deal a team would consider if they were trying to make the playoffs this year… there are only so many outfielders out there with this kind of talent that become available to other teams.)



Jeremy Hefner is now up to three inning rehab outings… John Lannan seems to have become part of the St. Lucie rotation (shaking head) and Giancarlo Alvarado remains in the Las Vegas rotation (shaking head violently); however, there may be a master plan here we’re all overlooking.

There is a good chance that a deal could come down before the trading deadline that included the loss of an established Mets starter. Moreover, the Mets are going to have to start limiting the innings (and eventually shut down a few) of the young pitchers in the organization.
All three of the above mentioned pitchers could wind up in Flushing in September helping the Mets secure a decent draft pick.



John Looby

            Hey Mack, Without taking into account the Mets current financial status, when do you begin to start factoring in prospects on the major league roster. At what point do they influence what you would "go out and get" today.
For example, with Nimmo and Conforto projected to be up around 2016, would you disregard that when looking at an extra outfield or do you take this into consideration?

Rosario and Cecchini would appear to be years away. If you were looking at acquiring a new SS, do you even factor these two into your decision making?
I suppose another consideration is Murphy and Herrera. When would you start to get a feel that Herrera is the real thing? How does this affect Murphy?
Looking forward to your thoughts. Regards, John.

            Mack: Hey John.

            Frankly, I don’t think this ever comes into play

Every team, and their fans, have nightmare stories about ‘can’t miss’ prospects. Remember ‘Generation K’? We weren’t going to need a starter for a decade.

What does come into play is who will take over from an aging player who has diminished skills.

Regarding Nimmo and Conforto (and Herrera), the main test is AA-ball. The players call this ‘the prospect league’. This is the bump in the road that many so called ‘can’t miss’ A-ball players can’t either dominate in or get past. I could write hours about countless ex-Mets we’ve never heard of again. Let’s just call it the Brad Holt League.

Once a certain amount of success is reached here (like what Herrera is doing now) you can begin to project his ‘ETA’. In Herrera’s case, conservatively it will be opening day 2016, but his position is still in question (my guess he’s comes up a shortstop).

I will say this… if you want to firm up the Mets middle infield for the next 4-5 years, then you sign the guy you just sent to the all-star game, He wants to stay, he’s take the home town discount, how difficult can this be?

This team makes no sense to me sometimes.


  
Noah Syndergaard on his Tuesday night outing –

            "For the most part, I attacked hitters. I was trying to be a little unpredictable. I threw quite a bit of my curveball. I threw some pretty good curveballs, and some ended up out of the strike zone. Even though it wasn't for a strike, it showed the hitter I wasn't afraid to throw a breaking pitch in certain counts. My last outing, I thought I had some really good stuff, some of the best I had all year, but I fell behind in the count and continued to throw fastballs. Even though I didn't really give up a lot of hard contact, they just found contact.  That's been my biggest problem all year, I've been a little fastball-happy. Hitters up here, once they've seen enough fastballs in an at-bat, they can make you pay. Tonight, I was able to get out of my comfort zone a little bit. When I fall behind in counts, I've been throwing way too many fastballs because that's the pitch I feel the most confidence in. I threw some good changeups in key situations that got me a groundout or a swing and a miss."

Mack – This is what I try to point out all year. You simply can’t survive, air or no air, at the AA or AAA level, with only one pitch. If that’s the only pitch that can hit the zone, the batters at this level are too talented to not pick this up and eat you for dinner.



Minor Moves -


For those of you that live in NYC and want to see Michael Conforto play this year… you better hurry… Las Vegas OF Cesar Puello is posting the best K:BB rate of his career and is batting .321/.387/.607 since coming off the DL… from Chris/tpgMets: Mets rookies by non-pitching fWAR (min 20 PA): 1) d'Arnaud 0.6, 2) deGrom 0.4, 2) Campbell 0.4, 4) Flores 0.3, 5) den Dekker 0.1, 6) Centeno -0.1… Kingsport RF Wuilmer Becerra is starting to show some of the pop he was projected to develop when the Mets got Toronto to toss him in on the R.A. Dickey deal. He hit his 5th HR in 83-AB raising his slugging percentage to .554, 2nd in the league… Kingsport SP Blake Taylor changed his changeup from a 2-seamer to a 4-seamer and helped produce a 6.0-IP, 1-H outing. "I just learned the changeup in the middle of this week," Taylor said. "I mostly throw four-seam fastballs, so it's easier, has the same spin as the fastball. … The looks to the hitter, it makes it more similar. That's why it worked tonight."… 

29 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Good point on AA hurdle for prospects, Mack. Nimmo is .189 in AA in 31 games, so he needs to jump the hump there. Cecchini .193 in St Lucie.

Meanwhile, the much older (than Nimmo) gold glove caliber den Dekker is fully dismantling AAA since his demotion. Just a thought.

Unknown said...

I would be surprised to see Colorado move CarGo. Would appear to be a major sell low.

Anonymous said...

I think they need to stay away from CarGo. There is a huge risk he'll be Jason Bay II. His numbers away from Coors Field are very poor. He hits 60 points higher their than he does on the road. With ball park adjustments his best year would have him hitting about .270 with 20 home runs at Citi Field. That's based on his best year to date. I would rather have Campbell there until Nimmo or Conforto are ready.

Unknown said...

A potential CarGo trade really depends on what it would take to get him. You are entitled to your opinion, but I think it's silly to say you would prefer Campbell. That would be like saying you'd rather have Josh Satin. Campbell is a decent piece, but he's not a starting LF on a playoff team. You could bat Duda 4th, d'Arnaud 5th, CarGo 6th and Lagares 7th if you want to take some pressure off of CarGo to perform right away. Duda is excelling in his current role so don't mess with him.

Mack, are we talking about a package of Montero & Familia while taking most of the salary?

Unknown said...

I agree - too much risk, his numbers would be ok, but not worth the salary and the cost in prospects - plus, being signed through 2017 blocks Nimmo and Conforto

Unknown said...

Meant to say I agree with Richard - if he came cheaply, I would be on board, but the combination of costs are too much

Frankly den Dekker deserves another look - he is following his pattern of struggling for half a season and then torching the league - he has been killing it since being demoted

That Adam Smith said...

CarGo is exactly the kind of move that I'm terrified this team will make, costing young pitching, tying up a huge percentage of the budget, and sticking us with a mediocre LF for multiple years whose production we could have gotten elsewhere (even internally) for a lot less. Please, please don't do this.

Unknown said...

Our internal options right now are E. Young, C. Young, Nieuwenhuis, Campbell, den Dekker, Brown etc. These guys don't start on teams like the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals or any of the other perennial contenders. If we want to be a serious franchise again, these guys would be 4th and 5th OFs.

Not saying that CarGo is the answer. Just saying that our internal options are not acceptable for contending teams.

Unknown said...

We need an addition, but it needs to be someone like Byrd - signed through next year at a reasonable salary

Anonymous said...

the mets are just a few weeks from officially being out of the race and I think that is the time to take a few flyers. release C Young and Abreu (or put on waivers for long shot/low level prospects) and replace with MDD and Puello. have those two platoon with Jlag and Kirk. Lagares has been good and I may not want to see him sit, but MDD could show ML ability and increase trade value. I would rather see Puello and Kirk than CY. Puello is raw, but he mashes lefties and Kirk hits righties, so what is to lose?

Ernest Dove said...

.......sigh.......not to burst anyones bubble here, but if Mets ownership wont get this payroll over $100+mil, the changes wont be what u want them to be. they will continue building farm system, hope pitching stays healthy, hope their current prospects move up to majors, and will continue to see one year veteran contract guys in the hopes they get back to their old form, at least long enough to build July trade value.......

Anonymous said...

thunder12k said
My statement about campbell was taking into account the cost of CarGo. Likely at least deGrom of not Syndergaard or maybe Gee or Niese not to mention about an average of 18 million dollar hit to the budget. Look at CarGo's home/Away splits an give me a reasonable expectation of what he will do in Citi Field. He will be coming from a park that inflates offensive numbers to a huge degree to one that shrinks them. It is hard for me to see how this does not repeat the Jason Bay experiment. At least with Campbell we know we have a, low cost, decent bat. He has proven himself to be a much better player than Satin.
Now if the Rockies take Dice-K or Colon and eat $10 million per year of CarGo's salary I would be glad to see the Mets take the risk and CarGo to prove me wrong but I know that will not happen.

Reese Kaplan said...

I think the way to go is for a AAA prospect blocked at the ML level by current starters such as the Dodgers' Joc Pederson. That way you are not committing huge salary and you have a cost-controlled solution for the next 4-5 years.

Anonymous said...

the Dodgers will not leave Pederson blocked for long, he is superior to Crawford, Kemp and Eithier. they are high on him and will eat salary to unblock him and it would take a ton to get him. they envision him out there with Puig and will try to move any of the clogs before JP

Anonymous said...

I also have been following Bucerra and since his drag racing incident, he has been tearing the cover off the ball and showing nice power. I think his OPS is over .900 and he is still only 19. if he were to ever pan out, that trade would turn out to be one of the more lopsided trades the Mets ever made...in their favor.

Reese Kaplan said...

For people envisioning what CarGo would be, think Kevin McReynolds in his prime. Over the five year period of 1986 to 1990 he averaged .270 with 28 HRs and 99 RBIs per 162 games. During his career CarGo has average .296/29/98. He has an edge in steals of about 15 for KM to 24 for GG.

My point is that if you adjust for the Coors Effect (and take into account his ability to stay healthy), he's not worth what he's being paid.

Michi L. said...

I would prefer a trade for a SS instead of trading our best pieces for CarGo. In my opinion the SS problem is much more difficulty to solve than the LF hole. I think if they have the chance to get a stud at the SS position they have to do it. You always find a corner OF bat at the free agent market. Maybe Josh Willingham or Michael Cuddyer for 1 or 2 years!?

Anonymous said...

agreed on CarGo. I would like to see what the second half offense looks like before spending big on LF. I hope Duda and TDA settle into what they are showing now, DW has a bounce back year and Grandy doesn't hit a buck in April. they wont be an offensive juggernaut, but the SP should be crazy good and the Pen will not start the season in full meltdown mode, so I think they can get off to a much much better start next year and pick up an OF at the ASB next year and not block Nimmo/Comforto. still not counting out Puello either, his recent slash line looks eerily similar to Bingo last year. if he ever became the player he was flashing last year, Comforto/Nimmo would have hard time displacing him.

TP said...

Many good points above. I agree with Michi. Save the chips for a high quality SS not named Tulo. Also, den Dekker has done everything he needs to at AAA - increased BB rate, reduced K rate, much better numbers vs. LHP. I know he is a 4/5, and he and Kirk are very similar, but I like having Lagares and at least one of Kirk/MDD on the big league roster as they complement each other while providing both platoon opportunities, plus D, and backup inurance.

Tom Brennan said...

A "high quality SS not named Tulo" could be Dilson Herrera by this time next year. He is already crushing AA. Nimmo has sputterd and Dilson has gone crazy since promoted. Dilson could be All Star caliber in a few years...and he is just 20. He can slide over to 2nd when the looking-like-he-will-be-amazing 18 year old Amed Rosario arrives to be a possible future All Star SS himself.

Tom Brennan said...

One point to keep in mind if they get Cargo...I think fences come in again this off-season. That would help Cargo and all other power hitters, such as Wright, Grandy, and Duda...and Conforto. Pitchers will adjust, hitters and fans will love more HRs

That Adam Smith said...

I absolutely agree that it would be a waste to pay top dollar and also trade top-end pitching prospects for a LF who is anything less than guaranteed all-star caliber. The drop-off between a somewhat better than average LF and an average LF is not enough to justify it. SS is an entirely different issue. But then, this is the FO that gave C Young $7 mil + in the hopes (best case!) that he could hit .240-.250 (according to SA himself.) Hard to believe that any one (or some combo) of Soup, Brown, den Dekker and Puello couldn't have done that - perhaps with a couple fewer HR's, but in most cases, while playing better D. It's somewhat mind boggling that they'd rather do that - and then waste 300 AB's running CY out there and hitting him 5th - than give one or more of those guys a real chance to stick in the ML. The Puello thing, in particular, is puzzling. Since when do teams take kids who dominated AA while young for the league and sit them half the time in AAA the following season? Particularly when it's clear that said prospect can play ML quality defense. Very, very frustrating.

Tom Brennan said...

Totally agree with you Adam. Dekker would be a big upgrade over CY right now, even if he struggled again, and Puello needs to play every day. Omly real way to get better.

Mack Ade said...

FYI - written by Adam Ruben late Thursday night -

The Mets have told the Colorado Rockies they would like to be involved with trade discussions if and when Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez become available, the Post's Joel Sherman reports.

lastname
Gonzalez
lastname
Tulowitzki
Writes Sherman:

But keep in mind Tulowitzki has indicated he has become frustrated playing his prime mainly in non-contention. And there is belief if he were to request a trade, ownership would strongly consider fulfilling his wishes. However, Tulowitzki has a no-trade provision, wears No. 2 in honor of Derek Jeter and is thought to be considerably more interested in being a Yankee than a Met. And Colorado already has expressed interest to the Yankees in their top pitching prospect, Luis Severino.

Plus, sources say the Cardinals -- owners of arguably the deepest farm system in the sport -- are enamored with Tulowitzki and would move significant pieces to land him. In fact, the market will be deep if Tulowitzki comes onto it, because he is viewed as one of the 10 best players in the majors.

Michael S. said...

Just an FYI Mack, mlb.com has corrected that Tulo in fact does not have a no-trade provision.

Also, it appears the Cards will be our biggest competition and I expect them to get him.

Michael S. said...

The Rox also like some of the Mets' prospects, including Dilson Herrera. I'd move Herrera, deGrom, Flores, and Montero. I wouldn't include Thor, Matz, or Nimmo.

Mack Ade said...

Michael -

I purposely stayed out of the discussion on this post. I just reported what I was told and let the readers give their comments.

I'm sure they would love the Wyoming connection with Nimmo.

The Mets could clean out their prospect closet and you'd have a lineup of:

Granderson, Murphy, Wright, Tulo, Cargo, Duda, d'Arnaud, Lagares...

Michael S. said...

No worries, I just came across the additional info and thought to add it.

Michael S. said...

Also, all the more reason to deal Colon and maybe Murphy. Keep adding prospects to our war chest (#4 in MLB) to make the big moves needed.