8/26/14

Morning Report – August 26th – Travis d'Arnaud, Bobby Parnell, John Lannan, Guppies, Kevin Plawecki





Among players with at least 250 plate appearances, Justin Turner has the 19th-best wRC+ (142) in baseball

Yusmeiro Petit, Giants RP, has to retire eight more batters to set the record for most consecutive batters retired ever.




2014 All-Pacific coast League Team
NAMEPOSTEAMMLB ORG
Francisco PenaCOmahaKC
Adam Duvall1BFresnoSF
Arismendy Alcantara2BIowaCHC
Andy Marte3BRenoARI
Nick AhmedSSRenoARI
Joc PedersonOFAlbuquerqueLAD
Shane PetersonOFSacramentoOAK
Matt den DekkerOFLas VegasNYM
Brennan BoeschDHSalt LakeLAA
Jimmy NelsonRHPNashvilleMIL
Tsuyoshi WadaLHPIowaCHC
Blake ParkerRHPIowaCHC


Brooklyn’s Marcos Molina has given up only two base hits in his last 13.2 innings.



I don’t think we are going to have to worry about the potential of catcher Travis d’Arnaud’s power. Sunday’s shot over the deep centerfield Los Angeles wall was the 9th home run in the last 180 PSs since his return from the minors (at the same point, David Wright has eight HRs all seasons). That prorates (based on 550 PA a season) to 27.5 HRs per…

Talk about prorated home runs…  Lucas Duda has 14 since July 1st, which totals 47 games… prorated over a 162 game schedule, that would be 48 home runs!


Duda and d’Arnaud’s prorated home run totals are quite exciting, especially since both represent successes none of us predicted for 2014. Needless to say, reaching the team’s 2015’s goals are going to be a lot easier if both these continue to produce these kind of power numbers.

Successful teams need three power bats, which the Mets now have if David Wright can return to the levels we’ve grown used to. If that happens in 2015, all the other positional players can simply be singles and doubles hitter for this team to succeed.
We know the pitching will improve when we add Matt Harvey, Rafael Montero, and (eventually) Noah Syndergaard. Imagine if the norm on this team is 6-7 runs and 8-12 hits per game.

We just may not be that far off folks.




Bill Metsiac –

            I guess Bobby's not being released.

Mack – He was referring to John F. Silver’s story on MetsBlog in which Terry Collins seems to make it quite clear that RP/CL Bobby Parnell was in the 2015 plans for the Mets.
Collins said:

"When Bobby Parnell comes back, he will be pitching during his rehab as if he's the closer, because that's certainly in our plan when he gets back. When Bobby's ready, we've got a nice problem on our hands. But looking that far ahead, we certainly can't have any idea who is the guy pitching in the ninth."

TC is saying all the right things but, for now, he still has to come back. He won’t be traded because that’s not what happens to damaged goods.
Who comes back? Well, Jeurys Famila, Vic Black, Josh Edgin, and Jenrry Mejia seem like they have a ticket to return. I wonder about Carlos Torres. Have we seen the best of him?

You have to assume that Jack Leathersich, Zack Thornton, and Chase Bradford will get their shot out of training camp. In addition, AAA starters like Rafael Montero, Cory Mazzoni, Logan Verrett, and Matt Bowman could take the pen plunge a la Mejia and Familia.

This looks like a talented pen, but without that one killer element.

That’s just me.



More Metsiac –

            Re John Lannan - He's being battered again tonight, and has become a virtual batting practice pitcher in Wallyville. Didn't do much even at St Lucie.
Why is he still in our system?

Mack – Well, I’m the sure the plan was to keep him around throughout the season in case all hell broke out and the Mets needed a seasoned, veteran starter beyond their first choice of Dice-K.

Lannan then went on his secretive extended leave and eventually come back and work through the rehab program.

Now, that September is a week away, nothing makes sense here. I know the Mets are paying him around a mil to throw the ball around and I’m sure all his gloves and bats will be sent directly to his house.

This was a strange one when it almost made sense,



John Looby -

Hey Mack, What are your thoughts on Kevin Plawecki? To me, any debate about the future Met catcher have been put to bed since Travis came back from Las Vegas. Does this leave Plawecki has back-up catcher and possible platoon mate for Duda at first, or is he more value to the Mets as a trade piece?

Mack – I’m extremely high on Plawecki. He does have some defensive limitations, but he still rounds out as a solid backstop. As for his hitting, the only time he had any hiccup was during the short period this year in Vegas that he suffered from vertigo. Average wise, I think he would pan out better than Travis d’Arnaud, though I give d’Arnaud the edge on power potential.

As for a platoon partner for Duda, that won’t be necessary. Lucas Duda is on his way to an all-star career and will bat against all pitchers next season.

And lastly, Plawecki is too good to be a major league backup (that looks like will fall to Juan Centeno). No, this is a solid gold trade chip and a rare find in baseball… a team with potentially two all-star catchers.


This really isn’t a story… it’s just an observation by me about the Kingsport and Binghamton Mets and the Brooklyn Cyclones. I’ve been doing this for a long time and I have never seen such talent on these three combined squads at the same time. I venture to guess that, if the Mets have success in the later years of this decade, it will come from playing the players that currently are on these teams.
Potential major league players (IMO) are:

            Kingsport – Luis Guillorme, Eudro Garcia, Wuilmer Becerra
            B-Mets – Brandon Nimmo, Dilson Herrera, Steven Matz
            Brooklyn – Marcos Molina, Jhoan Urena, Michael Conforto

Again, that’s just me.



Donation Drive (drive end 8-30) –
            Received so far – $ 575.00
            Goal - $1,400.00 - $ 825.00 to go
Paypal account:  macksmets@gmail.com

God Bless you for your consideration.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Are you guys as excited as I am for another 2 years in Las Vegas!!

(sarcastically.....)

Hobie said...

Re: All PCL: THAT Francisco Pena (27 HR!)?

Anonymous said...

How could you leave off Amed Rosario on your list for Brooklyn?!

Tom Brennan said...

I agree, Mack. No killer bullpen guy like Kimbrell - but it is collectively looking super in the pen.

I cast my vote to add to your Kingsport list - one Vicente Lupo. I think Lupo has gone from Bruce Banner to the Hulk. Short, incredible stretch in KPort (.400/.600/.900 over past 17 games)

Anonymous said...

@Anon

Technically Amed is in Savannah now.

Anonymous said...

Or Lupo from Kingsport? he has had major downs, but major ups as well and is absolutely on fire right now

Michael S. said...

Having 3 power bats makes this a dangerous team as long as the other players are pulling their weight.

However, that's relying on Wright returning to form. When two players are making peanuts relative to their production, we should go out and add a 4th bat to the mix. This way we have insurance in case Wright is hurt or struggling...and if returns to Capt. America, then we have 4 great hitters 3-6 in the lineup creating havoc for opposing pitchers.

Unknown said...

RE Power bats - guys, despite a very down year, Granderson is going to hit about 20 HR's - I think we can count on him to hit 20+ next year as well.

If Wright gets to 15+ - the power department will look pretty good.

As for this:

it’s just an observation by me about the Kingsport and Binghamton Mets and the Brooklyn Cyclones. I’ve been doing this for a long time and I have never seen such talent on these three combined squads at the same time.

It is time that you all stop bashing Alderson - other than Matz, he is responsible for adding all of those players - including a straight up fleecing of the Blue Jays.

Sandy has been handcuffed at the ML level to a degree, but he took one of the worst farm systems in baseball and made it one of the best.

The Mets are poised to contend for the rest of the decade, and while Omar brought in some of that talent, Alderson and his team should get the bulk of the credit

Hobie said...

Michael, I’m thinking that change-of-league year thingy might yield some optimism for Granderson.

Murphy & an arm for an OF bat and let Herrera, Reynolds, Flores (Muno, TJ & Tejada) determin the middle INF in ST.

Ernest Dove said...

I thought it was already reported days ago that Rosario was NOT being promoted.........does somebody on macks Mets have a source who believes that once his shoulder heals, he will head straight to Savannah instead of back to Brooklyn? ?

Anonymous said...

@Ernest

I actually just received confirmation that Amed was NOT promoted to Savannah.

In fact his is nursing a shoulder injury.

At this time, he has not been placed on the minor league disabled list.

Reese Kaplan said...

You're stuck with Wright and Granderson, so get used to it.

Here's hoping for continued improvement from Duda and d'Arnaud.

While you have 2nd base options available, it seems the Mets are loathe to make major league trades and they probably feel one more year of Murphy will bridge them to Herrera.

You can afford Juan Lagares in CF with all of his theatrics IF you upgrade seriously in the other corner outfield.

Then there's SS.

We keep coming back to the same issue. The team needs to beef up at SS and RF (assuming Granderson moves to LF). In an ideal world you'd find a speedy SS who can lead off and then a slugging corner outfielder.

Christopher Soto said...

As for Rosario returning to Savannah instead of Brooklyn.....I'm not sure.....that is a question for Mack

Mack Ade said...

Hobie - yes, it's THAT Frankie Pena

Mack Ade said...

Anon - I consider Amed in Savannah

Unknown said...

Reese - I hear the Blue Jays may have put a SS on the market who fits that bill.....although I doubt they ever trade with Alderson again

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

I am the one who reported on Twitter that Rosario would report to Savannah after the all-star break.

That is what I was told by someone with direct knowledge of that statement.

Then, it didn't happen.

Source information sometimes blows up in your face. This time it blew up in mine.

I don't know exactly what roster to put him on right now and I assume we won't see him play any more this season.

As for Lupo, I think some of you stretch this 'prospect' thing a little.

I wrote (my opinion) about three guys from those three levels that I think will go all the way.

Having a 'hot month' doesn't mean you're going to make it to the dance.

Mack Ade said...

Did I run everyone off again????

Anonymous said...

I don't think it is a stretch to use the term prospect, if you adhere to the strict definition, which is "the likelihood or possibility of some future event happening." So as long as you don't equate prospect with guarantee or certainty, that it is perfectly appropriate to use the term in describing almost any player in the minors. Now, there are degrees of prospect that can be debated and performance enhances probability, but using that loose definition, I think it is perfectly appropriate to deem Lupo a prospect at this point. Is he a long shot? Maybe, but he has already had short samples of performance that increase his likelihood of success over many others in the system. What gives me hope for Lupo is his BB rate; I know that sounds silly, but this is often a late development for players and those who demonstrate it from an early age show vision that is imperative for success. Having it does not guarantee success, but not having it almost guarantees that you wont. Lupo has recently shown not only power and hitting, but he has also shown a keen eye and discipline to layoff pitches that will get himself out. This is actually the one area that always gave me hope for Duda; he always showed an advanced eye before taking the bat off his shoulder and knocking the crap out of the ball, so my hope for Lupo is that he continues to develop his hitting skills at higher levels and maintains his BB rate. Plate discipline and barrel control are what major league hitters are made of. He may flame out, but he is doing all and more than is expected of him right now, so the "possibility exists" that he becomes a future major leaguer....hence, he is a prospect

Mack Ade said...

Anon -

Okay...

I've learned over the years that everyone has a different definition as to what a 'prospect' is.

In this case of this post, I said 3 guys from three teams each, in my opinion, have the potential of making the Mets successful at the major league level.

I just don't hand that out easily anymore because I did so many times over the years to only watch players burn out at various levels, including Queens.

To be honest... right now... all I have is opinions about these guys, but I shouldn't be projecting any player that is currently playing below Binghamton as a future SUCCESSFUL major leaguer.

My list is a short one right now... Syndergaard, Montero (as a reliever), Matz, Bowman (in the pen)Plawecki, Herrera, and Nimmo.

If that list seems small, it represents potentially over 25% of the future 25-man.

Anonymous said...

I am not projecting that anyone below Bingo will be a successful ML and even that has some reservations, I am just saying that Lupo (and others at different levels) are meeting their current expectations and in some cases exceeding them. lots can go wrong, so I aint penciling nobody in, even in the upper minors, but when a players exceeds expectations for their level, they cant really do more than that.

Me? I really do and have always like Lupo, but have been really disappointed with him since he came stateside, so I am happy to see him have some success. If he hit .195 this year and Ked about 30% of the time, his professional baseball career would be near over, but he has met the level, so he moves on to see if he can meet the next challenge. That is all he could really do this year and he has done it, but he is a long way from the ML. He has demonstrated a combined skill set that cannot be taught: power and BB rate, so I keep him on the radar until he goes the other way

Ernest Dove said...

Hey Mack, maybe I'm crazy, but I truly believe that every prospect u named above, if on the Marlins or Astros, would probably CURRENTLY be on their 25man.........maybe they wouldve waited till september this year for Nimmo and Herrera. ............
And I'm guessing here's why....they understand certain players have better overall talent then others, no matter the age.and since the major league affiliate is SUPPOSED to have the best coaching and trainers, it makes sense to have the best work with the most talented.
For example, I don't care how inconsistent Thor has been. He throws 97 with a "hook from hell"..u telling me the marlins rays and astros wouldn't have him on their 25man right now?

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

I agree with you.

The Mets simply don't operate this way and seem to be obsessed with this 'Super 2' thing... to the point of embarrassment for a guy like Alderson.

Do you think the Marlins would be above .500 right now if they operated like the Mets do since their star pitcher went down for TJS?

Anonymous said...

Thor maybe, but the other two have jumped from High A to AA with success, so I am not against pushing too fast, especially in the case of Herrara, where he is blocked by the best hitter on the ML team. both need a full season of ABs and heaven forbid they get subjected to the TC rotation of playing twice a week. Nimmo and Herrara need to be playing everyday and Nimmo is just making the change to AA, so ML pitching might eat him up right now

Bill Metsiac said...

Re: Torres, I see him filling his role (long man/spot starter) well. Ditto for Dice-K. I'm pretty sure Dice-K will be looking for a full-time SP role somewhere this Winter, but if he's not guaranteed one IMO he's done well enough this year (and he's still under 35) to be offered another contract.

On another note, I received my order of both the Shortbread and the Brownies direct from the oven of Mrs. Mack. Mmmmmmmmm...

Send in your orders, everyone. You won't regret it!