Morning Report – August 28th – 2015, Dilson Herrera, Park Dimensions, Daniel Murphy


Mets win total after 131 games last 4 yrs- 61(2014), 59(13'), 61(12'), 63(11')

Michael Baron ‏@michaelgbaron  -  I just did a revised calculation on the #Mets current 25-man roster. I estimate they are paying this group $67-69m in #MLB money.

Wow... Noah Syndergaard throws 6.2 innings, giving up only one earned run while striking out nine and catcher Kevin Plawecki goes 4-4 with two home runs. Now, THAT's a Mets wet dream.

Kevin Burkhardt ‏@kevinburkhardt  - Clear positives for Mets: 1) Duda's legit 2) d'Arnaud getting there too 3) pitching at times has been great.

            Mack – This is why I keep saying this team really isn’t that far off.
They now have a first baseman with the potential of hitting 45 home runs a year.

They have a second baseman who is leading the National League in hits

They have a future Hall of Fame third baseman

They have a young catcher already hitting at the 25-HR clip

They have the best defensive centerfielder in baseball.

And they potentially have the best SP1-2-3 rotation combo in the National League.

The team is young and most of the salaries are under team control. Better than that, they have multiple trade chips that can fill in some of the holes and money coming off the books that can be reinvested into a new left fielder or shortstop.

Folks, this is not my opinion here nor is it debatable. These are facts.

Yes, the team needs more… a killer addition to the pen… the heath of their rotation pitchers… a faster start for some of this year early slumping players… more of a return from David Wright and Curtis Granderson

But, I’m telling you… just the hitting of Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud and the pitching of Jacob deGrom have turned this team‘s direction.

Michael Scannell -

If he isn't traded, any chance Dilson Herrera makes the majors next year?  How about skipping AAA altogether?  I can't imagine him really gaining important experience there given the environment and what he's done this year.  I don't think he has much else to work on at the minor league level.

Michael, I can’t see any scenario that would create a sale of Herrera. On the surface, he seems to be the future NY Mets second baseman starting in 2016 and lasting throughout the decade.

The only question left will be when he takes over from the guy that is off and on leading the National League this year in hits. Yeah, he plays defense like Nick Fotiu used to do for the Rangers (wow, now there’s a name dug out of sewers of Seventh Avenue), but his ++ bat alone creates a situation where there really is no rush to push Murphy out or Herrera forward too early.

Speaking of scenarios, here’s your worst. You get your wish and Herrera comes to Queens only to be put on the bench five out of six games a week, and on the sixth, he bats 8th or 9th in the lineup. Sound familiar?
No, his future will be based on Murphy’s departure and whether or not there are any Super 2/Arbitration restrictions on his ass (I simply never spent enough time learning this). Frankly, I’d like to see him come up the same time with his lineup buddy, Brandon Nimmo and both be slotted into the starting lineup around the all-star break.

New CitiField Dimensions vs. old Shea Stadium –

            Citi – 335 ft left corner… 358… 385…408 dead center
                        398… 375… 330 right corner

            Shea – 338 left… 371 left center… 410 dead center
                        371 right center… 338 right corner

Everybody keeps telling me that the Mets need to bring in the fences ‘to the Shea dimensons’… am I missing something here? Shea was eight feet deeper down the right field corner and three feet deeper down the left.

Well, the announcers for Atlanta cleared this up for me on Tuesday night when they said they had talked to Terry Collins and it was 'right-center' that they want to bring in to fit Curtis Granderson's swing more.

So let me see... right-center at Citi: 375... right-center at Shea: 371...

I don't know... I still don't see it.

Rotoworld Chat –

Comment From James - If I'm picking up one potential future closer for ROS, who should it be: Neshek, Fields, Mujica, Hembree, Familia?
If I'm handicapping, I'd give Familia the best shot to close at some point in the final month. Mejia has dealt with various ailments recently and has a poor history of health.

pic by Mack Ade 

Jason asked –

           Mack, do you still have the opinion that the Mets should keep Daniel Murphy?

                       Mack – Jason, yes I do.

           I‘m one of those guys that like to covert the players that produce quality results. As I’ve said in the past, there are some sever shortcomings regarding his fielding, but it has gotten better over the past few years.
Offensively, I can’t even imagine what this team would be this season without his league leading hits.

I would pay Murphy every penny he deserves in his 2015 arbitration process, but, the day after I closed that deal, I would start planning for his early departure before he hits his scheduled 2016 free agency.
Dilson Herrera looks like a slam dunk for this position, as early as the all-star break next season. One of Sandy Alderson’s major challenges next season will be to perfectly time the rise of Herrera to Queens with the departure of Murphy through a trade.

Lastly, I called for a multi-year contract extension for Murphy for quite a while, but I’ve revised my position here. Every report I ready out of either Binghamton or Las Vegas have Herrera as a potential multi-year all-star. This alone makes Murphy the trade chip the team may need to solve their shortstop or leftfield problem.

Donation Drive (drive ends in 3 more days ) –
            Received so far – $ 625.00
            Goal - $1,400.00 - $ 775.00 to go
Paypal account:  macksmets@gmail.com
God Bless you for your consideration.


Hobie said...


I agree that the Murphy/Herrera change-out (I am picturing a magician/show-girl vaudeville swap) will occur mid-2015,

But I’m wondering if a contract extension, with 2-4 yrs control, would make him MORE valuable than a pending FA. (and in the remote, IMO, chance that DW doesn’t bounce back, an insurance at 3B when Dilson arrives).


bob gregory said...

if the Mets are going to trade Murphy, they should probably not wait until the middle of next year.
Murphy's value will be at it's highest ever after this season.
Additionally remember the "Mets Luck" when it comes to injuries.
I am in no hurry for Murphy to leave the Mets but if the decision is made that he is going, best to trade him this winter.

John Zozo said...

I agree with Bob trade him this offseason, that's when we will get the best value. Reynolds and Flores will fill in til Herrera is ready.
Keeping my fingers crossed that Colon throws a gem in his next start, so it makes him more enticing.

Michael S. said...

I think the state of the payroll might also dictate Murphy's departure. Regardless of how we feel and what we think, Alderson has restrictions and he might decide to move Murphy and reallocate his $ elsewhere.

Christopher Soto said...


Think about the Free Agent alternatives in the market this off-season.

SS is very saturated this year so we may see some of them switch over to 2B for other teams who aren't willing to trade prospects for Murphy.

I say wait till mid 2015. Dilson will be ready for a call-up by then

Reese Kaplan said...

Here's a thought that popped into my head after yesterday's game...

Does Wilmer Flores have Lucas Duda disease? What I mean by that is the resulting offense from Duda when he was forced to play a position where he was constantly under scrutiny for every little thing he did, vs. how he produced once he got to the position where he felt most comfortable.

Now consider Wilmer Flores being under a similar microscope at SS and his first game in quite some time when he moved over to a less crucial position and he slams a home run after looking totally lost at the plate while playing SS.

Is that a coincidence or is there something to a player taking his defensive anxiety up to the batter's box with him? If there's something to it, then let Flores play 3B, shut down Wright for the remainder of the season and see what you have in Reynolds at SS. That will help you determine what to do with Murphy in the off-season.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

I will say this...

Flores looks much more comfortable on second base and has turned some nifty double plays there in the past two days.

He even has the Atlanta announcers fooled and they think he's a killer infielder or, as they put it. 'another one of them from Venezuela'.

Now, if he just rememberd how to hit

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

I always thought that a contract extension was the way to go for Murphy, but the longer this goes, the less it's going to happen.

My guess is that Herrera in penciled in OD 2016 at 2B

Steve from Norfolk said...

On the Citi vs. Shea dimensions:

Looking at the Mets official website, they have a comparison chart I've been using to get my dimension data from. This page states right-center at Citi is 398 ft; right-center at Shea was 371 ft. It also states left-center at Citi is 385 ft. and left is 358 ft, while left-center at Shea was 371 ft. and left was 338. They don't show the foulpole dimensions at Citi. This is where I've been getting my figures. I've been looking for an overlay drawing of Citi vs. Shea, but I haven't been able to find it.

Anyway, those are the corresponding dimensions I've been referring to and would like to see adjusted when I refer to turning Citi into Shea. I want to take Citi and make it a park that DW can be as comfortable and productive in as he was at Shea. It would also help Granderson adjust and be more productive. With David, I'm starting to wonder if he just is at that age where 20/15 vision goes to 20/20 vision - that would sure account for the increase in strikeouts. Also, I broke my neck many years ago, so I speak from experience when I say I'm sure the aftereffects of his back fracture are aggravating all of these little nagging back problems and affecting his flexibility - it could even be a factor in his throwing problems. I really hate to bring this into the discussion with Duda fitting in at first so well, but David may very well need to be a first baseman sooner rather than later.

Mack Ade said...

S.F.N. -

I know I had to have something wrong about the dimensions.


Steve from Norfolk said...

Mack, And going back and looking, we're using the same figures, just referring to them as different parts of the park - That's what I get for trusting my short-term memory.

Mack Ade said...

S.F.N. -

I remember when I was having an old draft discussion with one of the scouts that was assigned that day to Savannah and we started talking about the possibilities of the Mets drafting 3B Kris Bryant... who was considered the top bat of that draft...

we knew he's go high (wound up 2 overall that year) and neither of us expected him to be around when the Mets pick came up, but I remember how the scout said that the Mets were going to wind up stuck with the Wright contract as some of the better bats continue to come out of the draft as a third baseman.

I think we are 'stuck' with Wright on third and Duda on first.

Frankly, I can live with that.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Found a very good reference for all MLB park dimensions at Clem's Baseball ( www.andrewclem.com )

Ernest Dove said...

Simply put, the mets need to put their BEST talent on the field, and on their 25 man roster.......
Regarding the dimensions, I seriously don't care about the dimensions. This often terrible looking offensive ball club actually still has a chance to finish the year above .500 at home. I assume it obviously has more to do with pitching then our players hitting homers at citi, but I thought the whold point was to build around pitching. ........oh, and go ask certain players around the league (im too frustrated and lazy to look it up) and ask them a out all the bombs they've hit out of citi field this year.
For players like Grandy, hes hitting under .180 since all star break. Last time I checked, mets were playing some games away from citi since that break.......just sayin.

Mack Ade said...


We need this season to come to an end

Thomas Brennan said...

I'd move center in to 400, at least eliminate the out dent in left, and move in right 8-10 feet. Smaller than Shea then? That's OK...ball does not carry well parts of the year. Homers would energize fans and attendance. So, of course, will the young exciting players coming up, as will winning!

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I've gone 180 on the dimension thing.

All I want is this team to win and I no longer have the confidence in management going out and securing a power hitter either via a trade or free agency.

So, the Mets need to create home runs with their current team... turn guys like Lagares into 10-15 HR hitters a year

Ernest Dove said...

Hey Thomas, I believe there's a team in Colorado, playing in a ballpark/atmosphere that generates plenty of runs, homers and excitement. .......how's that working out for them ? LOL

Hobie said...

Great site, Steve! A must see.

Shea was symmetric of course & the dimensions given every 11.25deg of arc.
SHEA: 338----358----371----396----410----396----371----358----338
CITIF: 330---------358--------385----408----390-----375*--(**)----330

Superimposing asymmetric (& unevenly spaced) Citi demensions we find the LF 358 mark more towards center at Citi and thus shorter than Shea; only the “notch” in the Mo-zone further out (and to the left of the notch, Citi is shorter than Shea); and a little Trig estimates approx 352’ at the Shea RF 358’ mark.

Leave ‘em, and get better hitters. As for Granderson maybe a worm-hole beginning in front of the 2B and exiting on the Pepsi Porch would work.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Hobie, If yo want to use a wormhole, we'll have to get a Bajoran hitting coach.

That damn notch at the Mo Zone is right where David was hitting most of his opposite-field HR's at Shea - that's what I hate about it. Stupid, stupid design work from an owner who was too busy paying homage to the Brooklyn Dodgers to think about the team that was going to play in that park! As far as I'm concerned, he's achieved the exact opposite of his intentions - he's made me hate Ebbets Field.

Unfortunately, I'm with Mack - we're not going to get better hitters, so we need to help the hitters we have, and depend on the pitching to restrain the opposing bats.

It's hard for me to visualize the differences in the parks without a graphic superimposition, but I'll take your word for it. I think the emotional rollercoaster ride of being a Mets fanatic the last few years are wearing me down. I just can't watch every game any more.

Anonymous said...

I am a regular reader of this blog and appreciate the content that comes out on a daily basis. With that said i have felt the need to write my frst comment based on the LD, DW, and DM comments

1) Lucas Duda has the potential to hit 45 home-runs? Let's get 30 this season first. Even then, do we really expect a 50% increase? He is not 23 years old on the precipice... He is in his prime right now. I think it's optimistic to hope he can consistently maintain 30 HR over the next few years. One step at a time.

2) David Wright's past, which situates him as a potential hall of famer does little for the future. Is this year the new normal for DW? I don't think so, but i am willing to bet we will not be seeing anymore 7-8 WAR MVP seasons. Future hall of famer or not, I don't see David Wright carrying this team on his shoulders like he once did.

3) David Murphy is a nice player who does rack up a bunch of hits. He is solid, but it doesn;t change that he is a 3 WAR player. His best season to date put's him in the top 1/3 of second basemen. Nice, but not he has reached an offensive plateau and his mediocre-to-below average defense is not going to improve as he ages.

It's nice to be optimistic and i think we have a lot of reasons to be happy with the direction this team is heading. But this team hasn't had a winning season since 2008. A lot of chips need to fall in place for us to be competitive in 2015 on.

Mack Ade said...

Anon -

1. 45 home runs is a prorated figure that Duda is hitting at NOW...

2. never said Wright would have a 7-8 WAR in the future

3. Is there something wrong with leading the league in hits?

Hobie said...

Steve-- How many fly balls has David Wright hit into the "notch?" That's not REMOTELY his problem. Most of his OF FO's would be warning track shots in Williamsburg.

And this Ebbets Field stuff drives me nuts. There is NO playing field resemblance whatsoever. You want to see Ebbets Field? Go to Fenway, and with with your back to field, watch the game in a mirror.

OK, the exterior of the HP entrance is Ebbetsy. The Citi "Rotunda" is FOUR times the size of the Ebbets parlor.

John Zozo said...

If there is a basher available via trade or free agency at third base I would get him and move wright to shortstop. I think he is versatile enough to play there and can handle it. Maybe he needs to bat second or 5th in the order.

Hobie said...

JZ-- Now THAT's outside of the box.

Would a Big Am + Pawlecki + ?? land Baez? Heck, throw in Granderson :-)

Sign Yasmani Tomas & off we go.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, i suppose that came off as a little confrontational. In all honesty, i have quietly enjoyed your blog for some time and check the morning report on a daily basis.

1. 45 home runs is a prorated figure that Duda is hitting at NOW...

-I am not sure how you come to that conclusion. He has about 1 HR per 18 PA. Would take about 800 PA for 45 HR and that's assuming he hits them at the same rate if he is not platooned.

2. never said Wright would have a 7-8 WAR in the future

-I know you didn't, but you implied DW being a future HOF is one of the reasons the Mets aren't far off. The reason he is a potential HOF is because he had a few MVP (7-8 WAR) years- something i think is in the past. Still love DW and want him at 3b no doubt

3. Is there something wrong with leading the league in hits?

-not at all. I guess my argument is that leading the league in hits is just a small part of the story. Similar to if we talked about a pitcher leading the league in strikeouts, but had a mediocre ERA. If Murph had 20 hr to boot, a higher OBP, or good defense to go along with those hits, perhaps i would be more excited.

Mack Ade said...

I wrote on August 26th -

Talk about prorated home runs… Lucas Duda has 14 since July 1st, which totals 47 games… prorated over a 162 game schedule, that would be 48 home runs!

Anonymous said...

Touche! I guess we can both agree that Lucas Duda is a heck of a lot better than what could have been. There was no bigger cheerleader for Ike Davis than myself.

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