Mack - 2015 Prospect List - #16 – RHSP – Gabriel Ynoa


My rankings is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game.

I’m old school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.

Let’s get started.

#16 – RHSP – Gabriel Ynoa – 21-years old – International free agent – 2009

                         6-2, 180 – R/R – La Vega, Dominican Republic

                        2010 –  DSL – 14-G, 12-starts, 1.99, 0.98, 72.1-IP, 35-K

                        2011 – GCL/K-Port – 12-G, 7-starts, 3.21, 1.09, 56-IP, 27-K

                        2012 –  Bklyn – 13-starts, 2.23, 0.93, 76.2-IP, 64-K

                        2013 –  Sav – 22-starts – 2.72, 1.02, 135.2-IP, 106-K

                        2014 – StL/B-Mets – 25-starts, 4.07, 1.31, 148.1-IP, 106-K

                        Career – 5 seasons, 38-16, 3.00, 1.10

These are some quite impressive stats from a 21-year old that doesn’t seem to able to strike anyone out.

Ynoa has been 26-8 over the past two seasons and that’s a sure fire sign of a control pitcher. He never had a WHIP over 1.15 until last season and still finished the season 11-4.

He looked like he weighted around 100 pounds when he signed with the Mets, but he does have his weight up in the 180 range.

His fastball tops off at 93 though for some reason doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts.

 His number two pitch is more fastballs.

He does add to this an average changeup and a slider which still needs some work.

I don’t see him adding much more velocity but I do expect him to concentrate on his command.

Outlook –

This is a tough one.

For the league, I would project him as a back end starter, but the Mets just don’t have any room for Ynoa in the remainder of this decade.

That leaves the pen and I could see him someday replacing Carlos Torres.

But one thing I will tell you… I hope the Mets don’t give up on this kid. He’s a great pitcher and will win this team games.


Thomas Brennan said...

You have to be pleased when pitchers win games, and Ynoa does that so well. I agree that upper minors in 2015 will be a big test for him.

Mack Ade said...

And Thomas... he may be all done with the minor league by the end of 2015... and then what do we do with him?

Thomas Brennan said...

Dams that get flooded sometimes burst if water is not safely released. Lets hope Gabe does not overstay his time in the minors. We'll have lots of guys to move soon.

Anonymous said...

I can't see him going to Vegas before Matz. Matz is older and has had more success in the upper minors. I would like to see him start in bingo and see if he can miss more bats and lower his whip. He has had success being pushed, but I would like to see him really take an upper level league over. With no spot on the horizons, why not keep him near age appropriate?
Anon Joe F

Mack Ade said...

Joe F -

I don't know... Matz is the definite future so there's no reason to send him to Vegas to be beaten up in April. Let him strengthen his arm in Binghamton in April and, after 4-5 starts, re-evaluate.

As for Ynoa, what are you going to do with all these guys?

On paper:

Las Vegas rotation -

Noah Syndergard
Rafael Montero
Tyler Pill
Gabriel Ynoa
Rainy Lara
Darin Gorski
Matt Bowman
Corey Mazzoni

Binghamton rotation -

Steven Matz
Kevin McGowan
Domingo Tapia
Luis Cessa
Michael Fulmer
Luis Mateo
Matthew Koch
You tell me where to play these guys...

Lew Rhodes said...

I hope he proves me wrong, but this guy's declining numbers as he goes up the minors worries me - his K rate is way too low to give me confidence right now

I think he will spend all of 2015 in AA - maybe a cameo in AAA at the end

His numbers need to get a lot better before he moves up - plus he is still really younf

Lew Rhodes said...

Mack - I think you are selling high on some of these guys

Gorski seems to have peaked as a AA starter - he moves to the AAA pen this year

Lara's peripheral numbers are very poor - he will be lucky to get out of AA, his k-rate, whip and ERA have gotten worst every year since low A - he isn't ready for AAA

I will be pretty upset if Montero is in Vegas - what a waste that would be

I see Thor, Pill, Bowman and Mazzoni in the Vegas rotation - I think Matz will depend on Montero - if Montero is in Vegas, Matz starts in Binghamton

Ultimately, of this list, Thor, Matz, Montero, and Fulmer are the best bet to be quality MLB starters - Pill and Mazzoni are close behind

I am not sold on any of the other ones, but Bowman and Ynoa could surprise me

Mack Ade said...

Lew -

I agree with a lot you are saying, but I'm just showing you who are still in the organization and 'on paper' to pitch where I have them slotted...

and... when you start moving guys like Gorski, remember, already in those pens are:

AAA - Jack Leathersich
Paul Seward
Hansel Robles
Jeff Walters
Chase Huchingson
Cody Satterwhite
Jon Velazquez
Kyle Regnault
Zack Thornton
Chase Bradford
Scott Rice
John Church
Adam Kolarek
Dario Alvarez
Erik Goeddel

AA -

Seth Lugo
Jake Kuebler
Julian Hilario
Beck Wheeler
Robert Coles
Shane Bay
Tim Peterson
Ryan Fraser
Angel Cuan

Ernest Dove said...

I assume at some point the Mets are going to start releasing or trading some of the names on Macks aaa and aa list for 'cash considerations' or maybe for other teams low level hitting prospects or something.
Unless a big trade comes out of nowhere and a team stacks up on like 2-3 of these guys for one solid middle infielder or lefty reliever......
Heck I don't know, guys will flame out and get hurt anyway (unfortunately) so who knows

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

This is one of the reasons you aren't seeing the Mets sign a lot of people to minor league contracts.

They are filled to the rim with adequate to excellent minor league talent

Thomas Brennan said...

Mack, super-stocked in pitchers at AA and AAA levels...and several more excellent starter and reliever pitch prospects below those levels.

Next year, they have to try to draft more power bats in top rounds and hope someone from that blossoms. It is stupid to be so overstocked on pitching and lacking in exciting power bats.

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