My rankings
is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time
I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years
and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What
I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s
amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game.
I’m old
school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I
find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the
beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.
Let’s get
started.
#16 – RHSP –
Gabriel Ynoa – 21-years old – International free
agent – 2009
6-2, 180 – R/R – La Vega, Dominican Republic
2010 – DSL – 14-G, 12-starts, 1.99, 0.98, 72.1-IP,
35-K
2011 – GCL/K-Port –
12-G, 7-starts, 3.21, 1.09, 56-IP, 27-K
2012 – Bklyn – 13-starts, 2.23, 0.93, 76.2-IP, 64-K
2013 – Sav – 22-starts – 2.72, 1.02, 135.2-IP, 106-K
2014 – StL/B-Mets –
25-starts, 4.07, 1.31, 148.1-IP, 106-K
Career – 5 seasons,
38-16, 3.00, 1.10
These are
some quite impressive stats from a 21-year old that doesn’t seem to able to
strike anyone out.
Ynoa has
been 26-8 over the past two seasons and that’s a sure fire sign of a control
pitcher. He never had a WHIP over 1.15 until last season and still finished the
season 11-4.
He looked
like he weighted around 100 pounds when he signed with the Mets, but he does
have his weight up in the 180 range.
His fastball
tops off at 93 though for some reason doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts.
His
number two pitch is more fastballs.
He does add
to this an average changeup and a slider which still needs some work.
I don’t see
him adding much more velocity but I do expect him to concentrate on his
command.
Outlook –
This is a
tough one.
For the league,
I would project him as a back end starter, but the Mets just don’t have any
room for Ynoa in the remainder of this decade.
That leaves
the pen and I could see him someday replacing Carlos
Torres.
But one
thing I will tell you… I hope the Mets don’t give up on this kid. He’s a great
pitcher and will win this team games.
11 comments:
You have to be pleased when pitchers win games, and Ynoa does that so well. I agree that upper minors in 2015 will be a big test for him.
And Thomas... he may be all done with the minor league by the end of 2015... and then what do we do with him?
Dams that get flooded sometimes burst if water is not safely released. Lets hope Gabe does not overstay his time in the minors. We'll have lots of guys to move soon.
I can't see him going to Vegas before Matz. Matz is older and has had more success in the upper minors. I would like to see him start in bingo and see if he can miss more bats and lower his whip. He has had success being pushed, but I would like to see him really take an upper level league over. With no spot on the horizons, why not keep him near age appropriate?
Anon Joe F
Joe F -
I don't know... Matz is the definite future so there's no reason to send him to Vegas to be beaten up in April. Let him strengthen his arm in Binghamton in April and, after 4-5 starts, re-evaluate.
As for Ynoa, what are you going to do with all these guys?
On paper:
Las Vegas rotation -
Noah Syndergard
Rafael Montero
Tyler Pill
Gabriel Ynoa
Rainy Lara
Darin Gorski
Matt Bowman
Corey Mazzoni
Binghamton rotation -
Steven Matz
Kevin McGowan
Domingo Tapia
Luis Cessa
Michael Fulmer
Luis Mateo
Matthew Koch
You tell me where to play these guys...
I hope he proves me wrong, but this guy's declining numbers as he goes up the minors worries me - his K rate is way too low to give me confidence right now
I think he will spend all of 2015 in AA - maybe a cameo in AAA at the end
His numbers need to get a lot better before he moves up - plus he is still really younf
Mack - I think you are selling high on some of these guys
Gorski seems to have peaked as a AA starter - he moves to the AAA pen this year
Lara's peripheral numbers are very poor - he will be lucky to get out of AA, his k-rate, whip and ERA have gotten worst every year since low A - he isn't ready for AAA
I will be pretty upset if Montero is in Vegas - what a waste that would be
I see Thor, Pill, Bowman and Mazzoni in the Vegas rotation - I think Matz will depend on Montero - if Montero is in Vegas, Matz starts in Binghamton
Ultimately, of this list, Thor, Matz, Montero, and Fulmer are the best bet to be quality MLB starters - Pill and Mazzoni are close behind
I am not sold on any of the other ones, but Bowman and Ynoa could surprise me
Lew -
I agree with a lot you are saying, but I'm just showing you who are still in the organization and 'on paper' to pitch where I have them slotted...
and... when you start moving guys like Gorski, remember, already in those pens are:
AAA - Jack Leathersich
Paul Seward
Hansel Robles
Jeff Walters
Chase Huchingson
Cody Satterwhite
Jon Velazquez
Kyle Regnault
Zack Thornton
Chase Bradford
Scott Rice
John Church
Adam Kolarek
Dario Alvarez
Erik Goeddel
AA -
Seth Lugo
Jake Kuebler
Julian Hilario
Beck Wheeler
Robert Coles
Shane Bay
Tim Peterson
Ryan Fraser
Angel Cuan
I assume at some point the Mets are going to start releasing or trading some of the names on Macks aaa and aa list for 'cash considerations' or maybe for other teams low level hitting prospects or something.
Unless a big trade comes out of nowhere and a team stacks up on like 2-3 of these guys for one solid middle infielder or lefty reliever......
Heck I don't know, guys will flame out and get hurt anyway (unfortunately) so who knows
Ernest -
This is one of the reasons you aren't seeing the Mets sign a lot of people to minor league contracts.
They are filled to the rim with adequate to excellent minor league talent
Mack, super-stocked in pitchers at AA and AAA levels...and several more excellent starter and reliever pitch prospects below those levels.
Next year, they have to try to draft more power bats in top rounds and hope someone from that blossoms. It is stupid to be so overstocked on pitching and lacking in exciting power bats.
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