The Morning Report – 1-19 – Matz/Thor, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon, Sell-Off, Sandy Alderson

Comment From Is Matz better than Thor? - Is Matz better than Thor

Eno Sarris: More people are coming around to this, but I’ll still keep Thor ahead. My reasoning is that Thor’s curve suffered in Vegas altitude, but his change improved. That’s three possibly plus pitches, while Matz is more two and let’s see about the third.

Mack –Sarris is talking about the two pitchers that will replace Jonathan Niese and Bartolo Colon in the 2016 rotation (possibly sooner for Thor).

The thing to remember here is no pitcher tends to improve on anything in the Pacific Coast League. Syndergaard’s improved change-up is big news (forget PCL ERAs) for the Mets and now gives him the three pitches needed for him to excel as a starter in the majors.

My guess is that Matz needs some more time to develop a + third pitch The good news might be that fellow lefty Niese’s contract runs through the 2016 season, giving Matz amply time to develop.

(opinion… this is why Sandy Alderson doesn’t sell off a young prospect pitcher and cave to the reporter/fan base that wants him to make a deal for the sake of just making a deal. This team is going to the dance behind a developing league top rotation)

Top 10 2016 Free Agents –

1.     SP David Price

2.     SP Jordan Zimmerman

3.     SP Johnny Cueto

4.     RF Jayson Heyward

5.     LF Justin Upton

6.     SS Ian Desmond

7.     SP Jeff Samardzija

8.     LF Yoenis Cespedes

9.     SP Rick Porcello

10.            CF Austin Jackson

Mack – Nothing changes in my plan here.

Desmond will be 30 years old. I would offer him three years at $15/$20/$25mil/year with a fourth team option at $15mil

I also would throw every penny I had left at Jackson (another soon to be 30-year old... agreed to $7.7mil/ARB on Friday for 2015), but only if he had a decent 2015 and his agent (Boras) would be realistic. He doesn’t get hurt, has wonderful speed, and would make a great leadoff hitter for the Mets. He can’t hit as bad as he did last season.

I know nobody signs everybody they go after, but these would be my choices to pursue.

Colorado is dangling outfielder Charlie Blackmon in trade talks with multiple teams, reports FOX Sports' Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal.

Blackmon, a first-time All-Star in 2014, hit .288 with 19 home runs and 72 RBIs in 154 games, and team officials believe Blackmon could fetch a solid starting pitcher in return.

The Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles are the teams rumored to be interested in the 28-year-old's services. -  http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/682524 

This came from one of the comments last Friday on my Morning Report:

                             Since this ownership group is not putting the necessary funds into this team and has set us back a year, I feel we should try and sell off some of these high salaries so we can reinvest it next year. On players like a Jason Heyward or Ian Desmond.

Murphy is as good as gone at the end of the year.

Grandys contract should never have been given to him by us last year.

Duda might hit at least 25 homers this year with a full year but I still am not 100% confident that he is made for NY and has the mental toughness to stick it out.

Last I looked last year's World Series winners didn't have a 30 homer guy on there team, and it might true of the 2 previous winners as well (haven't checked if that is true or not).

I think Cuddyer will hit consistently at first base and put up 15 homers but providing a better average. It will also be better on his body to not play the outfield.

I think Puello/ MDD combo is a better fit in right field.

I would then trade some of these prospects we get for Elvis Andrus.

I love defense to go with my pitching.

Mack – I don’t want to go line by line here, but I do have a general thought about this kind of process at less than 90 days before the 2015 season starts.

Everybody has their own spin on Mets ownership, Mets management (both in the front office and on the field), and player personal. The thing is… you’re looking at the team you’re going to be rooting for, plus or minus some very small parts.

I do not think a ‘panic sale’ at this point is in the interest of the team. It also isn’t in the makeup of our General Manager. The departure of Daniel Murphy and Bartolo Colon after this season will give the Mets ample money to go out and sign someone (if they choose to) in the Ian Desmond category. The arbitration process will push the 2016 salaries to the $115mil range, meaning the team will continue to grow, in talent, from within the organization.

Will it ever change? Will this snail’s pace return to a ‘big market team’ ever get us there? No, I don’t think so, but, if we become a consistent playoff team because we added one key element each year (2014: Granderson, 2015: Cuddyer, 2016: Desmond), added in key developed players from within the chain (2014: Lagares, 2015: d’Arnaud, 2016: Herrera), and stirred in Wright and Duda… well, that’s a pretty decent stew for a young staff of pitchers to join in on, none of which were lost during the tree years I discussed above.

I only ask for one adjustment here... sign ballplayers that don't cost us the number one draft pick.

This does lead to the last subject of the day. What challenges are left for Sandy Alderson in 2015 so this team continues to become more competitive?

As mentioned above, there will be money saved through the free agent process. The combined figure for Daniel Murphy, Bartolo Colon, and John Mayberry should put around $20mil back in the Mets pockets to spend in the off-season.

    Goal number one should be to find a strong replacement for either shortstop or one of the outfield positions, at a salary level that will not cost the Mets another first round draft pick.

Goal number two actually has already begun. The Mets, simply put, have too much quality pitching and some has to go. Case in point is the first…  Dillon Gee. Alderson knows that the rest of the baseball world knows he can’t keep all of these guys on their rosters, so what you’re seeing now is an unbalanced market, even to the point that Alderson has to begin to consider selling off Gee just for cash.

            Reese Kaplan broke out some interesting information regarding Gee:

I read today that they settled Jeff Samardzija's arbitration case a $9.8 million.  I thought to myself, I wonder how that compares to what the club is paying Bartolo Colon.  However, as I delved into the numbers, the White Sox' number two starter actually very closely mirrors Dillon Gee.
  

Samardzija - Age 29 - Record 36-48 - ERA 3.85 - WHIP 1.273 - K/BB 2.66

Salary $9.8 million

Gee - Age 28 - Record 40-34 - ERA 3.91 - WHIP 1.288 - K/BB 2.26

Salary $5.3 million

It would seem to me that the difference other than strikeouts is fairly negligible yet Samardzija is going to earn nearly double what Gee will.  Positioned this way, I would think finding a taker for Gee shouldn't be as difficult as it has seemed. 

My assumption is there is someone in the Mets home office that is capable of positioning their excess pitching talent with research like this. If not, they should hire Kaplan.