The Morning Report – 1-20 – Nats Pitching, Pat Minch, Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds, Amed Rosario


Caesar McMagic ‏@CaesarMcMagic  -  Fred Wilpon has been named the chairman of MLB's finance committee. Players must now buy a ticket to each game they play in

Tanner Roark won 15 games with a 2.85 ERA for the Nationals last season. As of this moment, he's the team's sixth starter. We’re very proud of what the Mets have done with the future of our rotation, but it isn’t even in the same league as the Nationals. Ours is full of speculation while theirs is full of solid results. Plus, their position players are projected for the 3rd highest WAR in baseball.

The rotation is now stupid good:

            Doug Fister – 16-6, 2.41
            Jordan Zimmerman – 14-5, 2.66
            Tanner Roark – 15-10, 2.85
            Stephen Strasburg – 14-11, 3.14
            Gio Gonzalez – 10-10, 3.57

                        And Max Scherzer.  Just stupid good.

There obviously be some changed here. My guess is Gonzalez will be the first to get the bad news. My second guess is they will trying to move the $16.5mil left in 2015 on Zimmerman’s contract.

Lastly, the only family that probably took this badly was the Giolito’s. I still wish there was a way the Mets could pry away Lucas from a team that seems bent on adding established starters to their rotation. 

The Miami Marlins signed P Pat Minch. Minch pitched part of 2009-2011 for the Mets, both in the minors and with the parent Queens team (2009: 3-4, 4.12, 22-G, 7-starts… 2010: 0-4, 3.79, 12-G, 6-starts… 2011: 1-0, 10.29, 6-appearances. His best Mets showing was for Buffalo in 2010… 11-4, 3.22, 23-starts.

Rob Piersall of Metsmerized[i] wrote this past weekend:

Earlier this week in front of an audience at Pitch Talks, Buster Olney of ESPN.com stated that Mets prospect Dilson Herrera will be an All-Star second baseman within three years, and that Daniel Murphy is just holding down his spot. “I can tell you, having talked with people on other teams, they think Herrera is a legitimate, big time player.” Said Olney.

            Mack – Piersall went on to speculate that Murphy may be out the door by the 2015 all-star break. I’m not sure about rushing Murphy out the door. He easily once again could produce the best BA on the team and I would leave Herrera in Las Vegas to learn, learn, learn.

Everybody loved this guy… last season for the combined St. Lucie/Binghamton/NY Mets: 16-HRs, 82-RBIs… and he was 20 years old. 

Comment From Optimetstic[ii] - Do you project Matt Reynolds as a major league SS? I understand it’ll probably be Flores and Tejada on opening day since I’m sure Reynolds has options, but do you see him forcing himself into the starting SS discussion in camp?

Kiley McDaniel: Good enough to play there and the bat is okay, but both are kinda fringy for an everyday SS, so more of a very good utility guy. One Mets official said he’s a Mark Loretta type. Exciting, I know.

Comment From Bomok - Who is the better prospect Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take Herrera, but it’s relatively close

Comment From Harry - Which low a prospect do you believe will make the most impact: Franchy Cordero, Amed Rosario, Rafael Devers, other of your choice?

Kiley McDaniel: Cordero is way behind the other two. I’ll lean Rosario but Devers is also really good.

           Mack – First of all, it was nice to see some positive national press on Rosario.

Past that, I found it a surprise that he has Flores close to Herrera. I wish I knew if that meant he thought Flores had more talent than others thought or was it a statement that both project to him as being above average.

I have Herrera much higher than Flores, but what do I know?  :) 


The big news Monday was that the Mets will be adding a new enlarged video board in the centerfield scoreboard. Consider it like you and I going up from a 42” TV in the living room to a 60” smart TV instead.

The video surface will be increased by 62%.

I’m not trying to be picky here, but I’m sure the player base would have liked to have a nice, young corner outfielder, or an upgrade at short, instead.

One more thing… in the business world, these are considered items that ‘enhance a sale’.

Just saying.


Christopher Soto said...

Based on other outsiders very opinions of Dilson Herrera.....I think this is a strong vote of confidence for Wilmer Flores.

Thomas Brennan said...

Wilmer, Herrera, and Reynolds getting good press. My wife and I got food poisoning last nite, but that good press medicine has me feeling pretty good.

When a team like the Nats hoards mega-priced pitching, you hope it backfires on them. The Santana and Bay albatrosses are not too far back in our rear view mirrors.

Scherzer will make more facing one batter than Roger Craig got paid for all of 1960.

Ernest Dove said...

So. ..... basically. ......Herrera is 'projected' to one day become what Daniel Murphy already is, an all star (sorry, I feel like that kinda had to be said).

Christopher Soto said...


I don't think that's what Buster is saying... I think he is suggesting that Herrera becoming an All-star in 3 years (aka age 24) indicates he has a ridiculous high ceiling for a 2B and that there is nothing Murphy can do to prevent Herrera taking his job.

Me personally I have his ceiling as a perennial All-star 2B (aka Ian Kinsler)

Christopher Soto said...

Remember it took 5 full seasons at age 29 to finally become an All-Star.

Ernest Dove said...

I know but I don't want my Mets to simply be in the habit of dropping all stars, no matter the age or time it took to accomplish, and then appease the fan base by drafting/signing/trading for 'prospects' that we then HOPE can take their place..
What happens in 2017 if Herrera is legit? By then there will be other guys Harvey, degrom and wheeler who will be one step closer in arbitration process. Should we then start talking about them being expendable because Molina, Whalen and company 'project' to be good?
Teams don't win championships with 25 guys under age 30. Need veterans, cheap or EXPENSIVE, etc etc tc.

Hobie said...

I'd be fine with (even optimistic for) a Flores-Herrera MINF come late 2015, but...

unless we are sure of a productive Wright (and I mean at least Murphy-level productive, not peak-Wright productive), jettisoning Murph is a bad move.

Ernest Dove said...

For the sake of dreaming (like we do with the 'projected' future rotation)
Imagine if the Mets (who are in the NEW YORK MARKET) signed max sherzer and that lefty reliever andrew miller. Keep murphy, then also traded away any combination of Thor, montero, matz, gee, herrera colon and niese in packages that net a tulo/desmond type shortstop.......who would be the favorites in the national league???? LOL

Reese Kaplan said...

I am probably alone in this sentiment, but signing Scherzer seemed colossally stupid to me. You saw the stats the Nationals posted last year without him. Arguably he was WORSE than several of their starters, yet they're committing $210 million for 7 years of his service to get at best a marginal upgrade from what they already had. Did you note Roark's stats from last year? How much better is Scherzer expected to perform than that? They were going to run away with the division either way.

Furthermore, their bullpen collapsed last year so they let Soriano walk and traded away Tyler Clippard. Now it's possible Roark assumes the Clippard role but what about Soriano's role?

Don't get me wrong. They have a great team. However, there are chinks in the armor and while they arguably strengthened the rotation they may have weakened their bullpen.

Anonymous said...

I am not going to argue that the Nats don't have a better rotation this year, they do, but it will be interesting to see where they go from here with players that need to be resigned. Span, Desmond, Rendon (he has an opt out that he will definitely exercise) and Fister are all FA after this year. That leaves Werth, Zimmerman, Escobar and Harper as the only really meaningful position pieces under control and the first three may end up being questionable. I know Gioito is coming quick, but they will have some big decisions to make in order to keep talent or hope their Farm produces. If they choose to keep a few of their pieces, they could look like the Phillies in 2-3 years with a bunch of players over 30 and paid for years to come. That Scherzer contract will be interesting to watch how it plays out on the back 7 years, that is a decent chunk of change to be shelling out each year for a player not on the roster, present value of money considered.
Anon Joe F

Anonymous said...

you are not alone, I also think it is insane and sets them up for real troubles next year when they have to ink their FA, go get new ones (good luck with that) or replenish via the farm. they could look a lot like the Mets with a dominant rotation, tons of question marks in the field and relying on young unproven talent to step in. The main difference will be that their rotation will cost a fortune, while the Mets will be totally managable

Lew Rhodes said...

I agree and said as much yesterday - this signing will looK really bad in two years after they have to let Zimmerman walk

Lew Rhodes said...

It would still be the Nats and the Mets would have a crappy future by trading top prosters for old players

Lew Rhodes said...

I like Murph - but he is not an elite player - not even close, he isn't even a starter on a 95 win team - he is a super utility player who get 350 ABS a year

Reese Kaplan said...

Apparently the Nationals second guessing is starting:


TP said...

You make a good point about Scherzer. Personally, I wouldn't sign any 30+ pitcher to that type of deal, and while he is excellent he is not the best of the best. This deal hurts the Met fans more in seeing what real competitive teams do, as opposed to fake competitive owners like the Wilpons. Not saying the Mets need to sign a guy for $180 million, or trade all their prospects for a middle aged star. Just saying that Cuddyer and Mayberry are pretend contend, and the paying customer fanbase shouldn't buy it. The ownership continues to do nothing but prove it is going to gauge the paying fanbase, shortchange the ballclub, and add to their significant wealth.

Charles said...

Everyone needs to understand that the Mets' current model for their teams is to build from within.

I'll also point out that in today's game that really is the smart play. Building from within means that when a player like Murphy becomes either too expensive or a free agent, you'd hopefully have a Dilson Herrera ready to step in. This certainly won't always be the case. In most instances, the Mets will have to pay to retain the player or simply downgrade. Because they have Herrera and money problems, this is a no brainier. I'd much rather them pay somebody else that money and let Murphy go for a draft pick. I do think Murphy will be the Mets first ever player to receive a qualifying offer and he will not accept it. They never do.

Eventually Harvey, Wheeler, and deGrom will become expensive. The Mets would be wise to trade one of them with at least two years of control left and add some more impact talent to the minors. Signing multiple pitchers to long expensive contracts will take this team stair back to 2010.

So while I agree that the Mets shouldn't simply trade away their stars for prospects, I do accept that it's a great way to keep a team competitive over a long period of time. It's much safer than drafting because you usually are getting players much closer to the big leagues.

Anonymous said...

Zimmerman and Fister are both FA after this year, so decisions sooner
Anon Joe F

bob gregory said...

To me it should be simple.
It depends on a prospect performing and earning his spot.
He has to kick the in incumbent out of the position.

Lew Rhodes said...

Joe F - Murphy will not get a QO because the salary will be way above his market value.

If the Mets did make him a QO, he will most likely take it - I don't see him getting much more than ~$8 mill or so in a contract - the QO was $14mm last year.

So unless Murph gets a high long term deal, he would take a QO.

That's a long way of saying that if Murphy isn't traded, he will leave and the Mets will get nothing in return

Brian Joura said...

I would be over-the-moon thrilled if Matt Reynolds turned into Mark Loretta.

The guy played 15 years in the majors and in that time put up a 98+ OPS as a middle infielder. A two-time All-Star, he finished 9th in the MVP voting in 2004.

This time last year, few would have predicted Reynolds to have anything more than a cup of coffee in the majors. And now it's some sort of let down to hear him compared to Loretta?!?

Finally, count me among those who think The Dilson is much more valuable than Flores.

Anonymous said...

I think you got me mixed up with someone else. I don't think they would ever offer a QO to Murphy and that they will move him at the break for the best they can get. It would be tough to move a competent bat if the season were going nicely, but Murphy will not be here next year under any circumstances and should return some decent minor league value from a team that needs a bit of offense for the stretch, but doesn't want to take on commitments. I don't see him returning a major league piece because the buyer is likely to be in the hunt, but a decent upper level piece or a higher value lower minor piece is a reasonable expectation
Anon Joe F

Lew Rhodes said...

You are right Joe F

My comment above was in response to Charles.

S Finch said...

Flores is your classic case of prospect fatigue. This comment may be a bit long-winded, but bear with me if you can. I crunched and compared both Herrera’s & Flores’ numbers in the minors and I found it quite revealing. First, both players put up remarkably similar numbers in the minors.

Rookie seasons: Flores had a better BA & OPS. Herrera the better OBP. Neither player significantly better in any category. However, Flores was much younger relative to the league (-4.3 years compared to Herrera at -1.7).

A+: Herrera had a significantly better BA, OBP, & OPS. However, Flores spent 3 separate seasons in A+, 2 of which he was 4.7 & 3.7 years younger than the league avg (Herrera was -2.6). If you take Flores’ 2012 A+, which he was similarly aged (-2.8) as Herrera, Flores has the better OPS.

AA: Around the same age relative to the league, Herrera was quite a bit better than Flores in every category: BA 30 points higher, OBP 40 points higher, & OPS 100 points higher.
-two things here 1) BABIP shows Herrera was a bit lucky & probably played over his head & 2) Flores' season was by no means 'bad.'

Flores has the pedigree (4 times named to top 100 list-most recently in 2014), but lost much of his shine when he was deemed a man without a position. At this point, I think defense at 2nd is a wash between the two (Flores-arm, Herrera-range). So why such love for Herrera & apathy towards Flores? We’ve seen/heard about him forever and he isn't the blue-chipper with comps to Miguel Cabrera that he once was. Bottom line, Flores has always played against much older competition (until AA) and has performed quite similarly (in many ways better) than Herrera with the exception of 250 Abs at AA.

eraff said...

S. Finch--

Herrerra is 20...blew away his leagues... has speed and pop...looks like he can become an outstanding fielder. Every part of his game is High Ceiling---that doesn't make it so, but the bigger top looks like it's there.

No need to defend Flores, but he's a guy who will need to outhit his glove as a middle infielder---and by a wide margin. He's slow AND he's a bad baserunner. Without a 15/70 and upward hit tool, he cannot play...and I'm not sure the 15/70 makes it either.

S Finch said...

wait whaaat?

I just posted numbers saying they are extraordinary similar. Before this year, Flores was younger than Herrera at every level.

At 20, Flores was also moved up to AA (like Herrera). In 250 ABs, Herrera was better, but in every level prior, they were very close (Flores doing it at a much younger age).

BABIP suggests Herrera was quite lucky last year, which would elevate all his offensive stats..He was only brought up because of injuries and the 40 man.

Your are experiencing prospect fatigue. Herrera is shiny and new. Flores is no longer. Must look at numbers to remove bias...

S Finch said...

You are obviously making some strong assumptions going forward.

1) Herrera will develop average-or above average defense. While this may be true, i've seen no glowing reports on his D. If it was as good as you state, why isn't he at SS?

7/7/2014: "He doesn't have the greatest first step in the field, and his lack of short-burst quickness will probably limit him to second even without the concerns about his arm (which I didn't see really tested in this series). Looked a bit mechanical in the field, especially on the backhand side and double play turns, but projects as an average second baseman."

2)Speed: Unless you are talking about bat speed, I have seen nothing special written on his base-running. He stole 23 bases last year- That's nice, but I don't see how that substantially changes the comparison between him and Flores.

eraff said...

There's no prospect fatigue regarding Flores. He's a nice prospect.

You're looking at Hitting Stats, and somewhat selectively--- the game DOES include some things other than BAT IN HAND STATS. Herrera has speed....seems to have a high defensive potential.

I question whether Flores is an MLB Middle Infielder--- and I'm certain he's not a SS.

All of this is projection and hope--for both guys.

S Finch said...

I am using the best available stats for the minor leagues. What do you suggest I include?

Yes, Herrera does have some speed, much more so than Flores. While that's a plus, speed is a secondary skill in baseball. I don't see how that changes this conversation much.

This high defensive potential is what really gets me. Unless you have some unreleased scouting reports or 'just believe,' I don't know how you conclude that he has this great defensive skillset. All reports I've read suggest he might become average. At 2nd base, I think both players aspire to become a non-liability and little more.

And here is where we agree: All of this is projection and hope--for both guys."

-Similar offensive #'s in the minors
-Similar questions on defense.

Which is why i question those who give super high value to one, while downplaying the other.

eraff said...

OK...I'm done being the Straw Man for Blind opposition versus Flores--- I like the kid...with MANY reservations. Most are based on watching him play.

As for your blind defense of him... your comments on his lack of footspeed and his defensive challenges---most especially your comparison of the two player-- is absolute Pan Gloss!

The guys cannot run....and guys who get moved off Shortstop at 22 are guys who CANNOT PLAY SHORTSTOP!!!!!!!

I like the bat (Flores)...I'm guessing he can hit..... he brings nothing else, so the hgitting needs to be GREAT---and I don;t think he's going to be a GREAT hitter...a good one, maybe.

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